Retired Professor of Political Economy
(Lancaster University, UK - retired 2021)
(also #ProfDJ across the Lune Valley)
Contributor: North West Bylines #NoBridge
Rishi Sunak has stated its going to be about who the public trusts...
Not the ground on which he might be best advised to fight after a decade & half of scandals, corruption & crisis....
Indeed, he says he's going to 'earn our trust'.... well given he's been PM for some time, and is (therefore) admitting he hasn't earnt our trust already, this looks like howl statements scripted by a advisor, unless he's monumentally out of touch.... oh, hold on
And so it starts: Election 2024 will be on July 4th:
Rishi Sunak has decided there's unlikely to be any better news coming before the end of the year & things could get even worse....
Does he also like the symbolism of July 4th - independence in this sense from what? people are going to have fun with that.
But, we're now going to see the Right wing press swing into full attack mode, leaving the Q. has Keir Starmer so reduced Labour's profile as to present only a narrow target?
Now the Q. is whether the BoE will make good on its talk of a shift down in interest rates (but don't expect a major reduction), or whether oddly, the headline rate doesn't reflect what they see as 'real' inflation...
If the latter, then, they'll be some crocodile tears & an assurance that of course rates will be coming down soon.... just (again) not quite yet.
Watch the sado-monetarists shift the goalposts (again).
On the publication of Article !('s latest annual report on freedom of expression, executive director Quinn McKew summarises the situation:
'At no point in the last 20 years have so many people been denied the benefits of open societies, like the ability to voice opinions, access a free media or participate in free and open elections' (quoted in The Guardian).
And you'll note that the UK ranks 33rd in their report on freedom of expression.
Elsewhere the arrival of the Taylor Swift tour has prompted discussion (expectations) of how the tour ticket sales & other expenditure will prompt a focussed economic boomlet....
In the UK, predictions are focussed on the likely expansion of ticketing fraud.
There's a well-known Northern saying that there is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothing...
Well, if that is true, it looks like we all will need to invest in better rainwear, better waterproof boots & shoes, and be better prepare for living, working & travelling in the rain
Record wet weather across the country looks to be becoming more likely than ever.
(And for those with a Noah complex; it may be time to build your ark).
So while you & I might think its necessary to speed up the Green Transition & enhance/accelerate measures to reduce emissions, Shell's shareholders disagree.
The firm has just sought & obtained agreement from investors to slow down its measures to mitigate its environmental impact & reduce progress towards its own (already weak) climate targets.
More reason(s) the fossil fuels sector cannot really be central to climate response(s).
In a transparent attempt to push the 'country's not safe under Labour' narrative, today Oliver Dowden launches a new Govt. website called Prepare which offers advice on stockpiling goods (food) for potential emergencies.
Advice includes holding 10liters per person per day stock of bottled water & food supplies that do not need to be cooked.
While this may bring advice in line with other countries with such 'resilience' planning, the timing looks pretty odd, does it not?
As expected Lord Walney's report ('welcomed' by James Cleverly) represents an agenda to stifle and criminalise democratic protest.
This is a real and present danger, not so much from the Tories who will likely have too little time to get much of this near any legislative change, but from Labour whose instincts seems to have been becoming less & les permissive of protest over the last few years.
Democracy is in danger of being further constrained
If you want to see a duopoly at work, Mastercard & Visa (who control 95% of all debit/credit card payments in the UK), have managed to raise their fees in real terms by over 30% in the last five years with, as the Payment Systems Regulator drily puts it. 'little evidence that the quality of service has improved at the same rate'!
Yup, that would be the sort of greedfaltion that we need to stamp on, not workers trying to regain their living standards (real pay levels).
As Rachel Reeves stresses the link between international relations & economics... for those of us who've been (in my case) or still are International Political Economists, this is all very much what we've been talking about for decades.
So, for those of you wondering how that might work, one great book that brings a lot of the things Reeves is talking about together is:
Labour internal research suggests (rightly, I'd say) that the Tories have successfully seeded the post electoral period with a series of disasters (from water firm & university collapses to prison over-crowding & further NHS crises due to funding constraints).
We've been watching the Tories extend their scorched earth policy (of course, Labour have been watching too)... so the thing to try to keep hold of for Labour's first term as they firefight is:
Here's the ever interesting @davidallengreen arguing (persuasively) that like previous inquiries the infected blood inquiry offers some salutary lessons:
if officials fail to keep ministers in the loop (& positively mislead them) calling for enhanced ministerial accountability may be missing the (political) point;
A strengthened House of Commons could independently scrutinise state activity, so these 'scandals' could have been spotted & halted earlier.
Last summer Suella Braverman changed the definition of “serious disruption” to mean “more than minor” – giving police huge powers to shut down protests.
Liberty said this move was undemocratic, unconstitutional and unacceptable.
The term ‘serious disruption’ comes from another Public Order Act from 1986. The Home Secretary has the power to clarify what is meant by ‘serious’ – not completely change its meaning.
If employers have been unable to prosper due to a skills shortage then that AI may be enhance productivity looks like good news....
But, if employers are unable to find staff because they don't pay enough & offer rubbish working conditions, then a move to AI will confirm capitalists want to replace workers with technology, as they have done before, but now in the service sector(s).
If you're a Keynsian you'll now be wondering about 'effective demand'!
If you think consumer sentiment (confidence) is a good indicator of the general state of the economy, you'll (perhaps) be unsurprised that across the EU and in UK & USA, such sentiment has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Given the continuing cost of living crises, high(er) interest rates & a range of issues from conflicts to climate change, its perhaps more surprising sentiment has not declined more.
But, if capitalism is a system built on confidence about the future....
As Chris Whitty (chief medical officer for England) points out:
'The principal reason for the existence of the sewerage system is to protect public health'!
Therefore, reducing the problem of sewage discharges into water courses must be a 'public health priority'!
The Q. is how do that?
As many of the problems stem from mismanagement & profiteering, its mainly a structural problem regulation alone will not fix (especially given OFWAT's record)... public ownership beckons.
when a Bank of England director tells you its 'possible' interest rates will be reduced over the summer....
Of course its possible they'll be reduced, but my guess is they'll just want to keep them high a little longer... just to make sure those pesky workers & their demands for a return to pst standards of living have been firmly dampened down.
Perhaps, by some strange co-incidence they'll fall the month before an Autumn election?
Lets be absolutely clear - at the centre of the infected blood scandal, as so many other 'scandals' involving institutions riding rough-shod over the interests & well-being of ordinary people (see the posted list & additions in my timeline over the weekend) is one thing:
People in power lying to those whose lives have been ruined.
LYING... not making mistakes, not misunderstanding... LYING.
This is the culture that infects our political & social 'elites'; being (very) comfortable lying to us!
It is unlikely that advancing women's equality can be achieved without major legal reform(s) in many countries... gender equality will not be achieved via organic social measures/trends (although they can be reinforced by legal measures).
If you have the time this week, this report from UN Women offers some compelling evidence why the law needs to reinforce & respond to demands for gender equality.
If the impending drop in energy prices does bring inflation down to near the BoE's target, the continuing rumble from the sado-monetarists that inflation is driven by workers wage demands will be further compromised.
We can expect some tortured arguments about how really energy prices only impact inflation by easing of pressure on workers' demands for higher wages, while (as always) ignoring that workers wages in real terms are still languishing after a decade or more.
What is the point of auditors when, according to the Audit Reform Lab (based at U Sheffield) the Big Four only managed to spot problems prior to one in four major corporate collapses/bankruptcies since 2010.
(If the choice was will/won't collapse random conclusions might indicate a 50% success rate, so 25% in spotting the difference between success or failure really is pretty poor; yes I know I'm simplifying).
The only solace for the Big Four is other auditors were even worse
While we often appreciate the economic forces & structures that cause & reinforce poverty, this report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation focusses on how stigma is keeping the poor, poor.
Among its recommendations is to stop designating the disabled & unpaid carers as 'economically inactive' while also rejecting the characterisation of low-paid work as 'unskilled'.
We should/must reject the narrative of the wealthy about the rest of us!
Now its confirmed that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has been killed in a Helicopter crash which initial reports indicate was a powered flight into a mountain side in adverse weather conditions.... we can expect a range of coverage & conspiracy theories that will identify one or other state actors as the real agents of the 'accident'.
How this then plays out could become (even more) dangerous for regional security... its unlikely to be left to remain as an 'accident' (even if it was).
