Not many in the media will say it, so let me: Polls don’t #vote. People do. Like 2020, 2022, & 2023, #GenZ will turn out, prove the #polls wrong, & re-elect Joe Biden, who has done so much good for all of us.
We are in a world where news consumers need to stop thinking of political polling as the science of survey sampling, as random draws of marbles from a bag, and more as complex models of statistical inference that rely on lots of assumptions and are prone to many types of error.
Pollsters are defending their current numbers by arguing (a) their sampling designs & weighting make data “representative” of the pop today; and (b) that polls aren’t “predictive” of 2024. fair! But most don’t even try to adjust for partisan nonresponse within demographic groups.
Every reporter on a poll-heavy beat should have to spend six months embedded inside a polling organization.
It’s important to remember/realize this recent spate of #polls is not neces “young people will defect & vote for #Trump/a GOP presidential candidate for 1st time in a generation” but more “subset voices displeasure w #Biden 1 year out/not when it’s a real choice”
If anything, something to watch is if turnout changes/what is actually happening IRL in key states w other non-pres elections (hint: it’s not what these polling snapshots & punditry around them neces imply!)
"Another new poll confirms a strong majority of people in the U.S. want a ceasefire in #Gaza. Support for a ceasefire transcends party lines to include a broad, diverse, & growing coalition of voters. Not only is a ceasefire the right thing to do, it’s politically popular. 🧵
1:31 PM · Nov 15, 2023
Just out today is a new Reuters/ Ipsos poll that finds 68% of Americans agree with the statement “Israel should call a ceasefire and try to negotiate.”
How many Southeast Asian countries have you visited? (Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Brunei, Timor Leste)
@heidilifeldman 1/ #indivisible abridged 1.When we run against extremism & contrast it with our broadly popular agenda, we wipe the floor with #MAGA. We’ve got to absorb this lesson because it has been key to every single major electoral win we’ve had
2. Expect more bad #polls…don’t ignore but don’t give too much weight. Run like 5 points behind, race is within reach, but we’ve really got to work for it.
The Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin just said (on Threads) that last night's results show that 90% of political reporting is garbage.
That's because 90% of "coverage" is speculation and opinion. An email from the NYT "The Tilt" assured me that it was a good night for Democrats but that doesn't mean anything for 2024.
Rubbish.
Elections tell us how voters feel. Polls do not and pundits do not.
Are #polls or actual #election results indicative of public sentiment? Let’s ask our panel of war criminals, failed politicians and pundits who have never once been right
Finished my shift, always so invigorating to work the polls and witness democracy in action. I know it sounds extremely boring but it really is one of the most exhilarating things I do. #vote#election#polls
Don't listen to political #polls. They're ALWAYS #biased in favor of which side or publication pays for them. Questions are written to confuse.
If you find yourself responding to a poll, make sure you understand the question. Don't respond if you don't.
Questions are usually prefaced by narrative. For instance, a narrative may start w/something to the effect mortgage rates are highest in 20 yrs; which candidate has done more for the economy? Biden or Trump
I'll be interested to see a study that uses #polls across different popular #SocialMedia ( #Threads, #Twitter/#X, #Facebook, #Mastodon, etc) where they compare the demographics of each social media and the top responses from each poll.
I'm thinking of polls that would have questions that you would find on social experiments like "Do people tend to be good or bad" or "Would it be more likely for a person to help someone else when it hurts themselves or to not help anyone at all and it benefits themselves?"