peterdutoit

peterdutoit, 1 year ago to random

Early Warnings

In this peer-reviewed paper scientists looked at 12 locations around the Mediterranean and Middle East to determine when these locations would cross the regular occurrences of 45° and then 50°C days given our current trajectory. They look at the situation at present, mid century (27 years away) and late century (77 years away)

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00377-4

They observe:

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#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #Mitigation #Adaptation

peterdutoit, 12 days ago to climate

14 September 2023: “It is now almost certain that the 12-month running mean temperature will exceed 1.5°C by May 2024 or earlier.” —Hansen et al

April 2024: 12-month running mean temperature +1.63°C (Berkeley Earth & ERA5 datasets)

Hansen: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/FlyingBlind.14September2023.pdf

Berkeley Earth: https://berkeleyearth.org/april-2024-temperature-update/

ERA5: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-april-2024Heatwave

#ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 15 days ago to random

MUST WATCH:

"The dream in the USA of 'electric SUVs for all' rests on the back of extraction from the mines of Congo and from the bodies of Congolese workers who are supposed to bear the brunt of that Dream. This is not a viable future."— @jasonhickel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=reDNhbSy5mo

#CllimateCrisis #EnergyTransition

peterdutoit, 29 days ago (edited 29 days ago) to brazil

"I don't say this lightly - but the floods in #PortoAlegre, #Brazil, are looking comparable to what Katrina did to New Orleans in 2005 -- massive evacuations, water & power outages, key infrastructure damaged, parts of city, possible long-term consequences."—Brian Winter

Background heating +1.3ºC

#ClimateCrisis

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peterdutoit, 14 days ago to climate

“What can I do about the the #ClimateCrisis?” is an often asked question!

It begins with improving your Climate Literacy.

I would strongly recommend starting the journey by absorbing Chapter 5 of the IPCC WGIII report — at least the Executive Summary if your are time constrained. 😉

Then share what you learn!

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter05.pdf

#ClimateLiteracy

peterdutoit, 16 days ago to climate

I don’t think any of us really understand how quickly collapse can happen:

> About 85% of the country expected to see highs of at least 40°C
> Almost 40% of the country’s dams below 20%
> 40% are between 20 and 50%.
> Mexico City (Population 22.51 million) forced to reduce water supply as reservoirs that feed city dry up.
> Stores running out of mineral water.

https://apnews.com/article/mexico-heatwave-drought-protests-monkey-deaths-6310778f139ef786a8c70301fb340bd5

#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #Mexico

peterdutoit, 1 month ago to brazil

We absolutely cannot ignore what is happening in #Canoas #Brazil.

The stories and images are heartbreaking.

https://youtu.be/URmRPBo48ao

This is all taking place with background heating of +1.3ºC (latest 5-year average) above preindustrial.

Our cities, our infrastructure cannot cope at this level of heating.

What happens when we reach 1.5º or 2ºC?

#ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 1 year ago to random

Early Warnings

There has been a dramatic shift in the earths water system!

• Reference glaciers (for which we have long-term observations) experienced an average thickness change of −1.3 metres between October 2021 and October 2022. This loss is much larger than the average of the last decade. The cumulative thickness loss since 1970 amounts to almost 30m

#ClimateCrisis #Water

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peterdutoit, 24 days ago (edited 24 days ago) to random

Jan 12, 2024, Hanson, Sato & Ruedy:

“We expect record monthly temperatures to continue into mid-2024 due to the present large planetary energy imbalance, with the 12-month running-mean global temperature reaching +1.6-1.7°C relative to 1880-1920 [already reached in the ERA5 & Berkeley Earth datasets] and…

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#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

Hausfather thread: https://bsky.app/profile/hausfath.bsky.social/post/3kskdf4xsg226

peterdutoit, 1 month ago to climate

NEW from CCS:

April 2024 was +1.58°C above preindustrial.

12-month running mean (May’23 to April ‘24) +1.61°C above preindustrial.

Reminder: Hansen, Makiko & Ruedy on January 12 2024:

“We expect record monthly temperatures to continue into mid-2024 due to the present large planetary energy imbalance, with the 12-month running-mean global temperature reaching +1.6-1.7°C relative to 1880-1920”

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-april-2024

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

peterdutoit, 14 days ago to climate

2024 is not just an election year. It is THE election year.

64 countries—representing a combined global population of about 49%—are holding national elections, the results of which will prove massively consequential as we head deeper into the #ClimateCrisis

#Vote to keep fossil fuels in the ground!

peterdutoit, 22 days ago (edited 22 days ago) to random

IRI Temperature Probability Forecast for June-July-August:

"Regarding temperature, 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙤𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙮 𝙚𝙣𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙙 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙗𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 for above-normal temperature are forecasted across most land areas throughout the forecast period." (Emphasis mine)

Where are you on the map?

Full forecast: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

What is a probability forecast? https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/08/probability-forecast/

#ClimateLiteracy

peterdutoit, 1 month ago to climate

These instrument readings serve as a stark reminder of our current trajectory.

They not only reflect our past and present actions but also foreshadow a future dictated by them - ie a world that has heats to between 2.1-3.5ºC

It is only when these figures begin to reverse that we can confidently say our efforts to change course are effective.

Pay attention to the instruments!

Graphic source: https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe/112340885914056186

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 29 days ago to random

"Key numbers on Porto Alegre & surrounding state per Folha de S.Paulo

• 95 dead
• 131 missing
• 50k homeless
• 160k evacuees
• 17 hospitals closed
• Airport closed indefinitely
• 450k homes without power
• 85% of city's 1.3 mln residents without working water supply"—Brain Winter

peterdutoit, 1 year ago to random

Basically this is our problem and best we figure out how to solve this as in immediately.

Emissions (2022): 36.6 billion tons CO2
Net Removals (2022): 2 billion tons CO2
CO2 Concentrations (Apr 2023): 424 ppm

(Image source https://img.climateinteractive.org/2014/03/bathtub_CO2-1024x728.jpg)

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 1 year ago to internet

Yeah so the data is in — Twitter has become a climate denial hotbed.

So glad to not be giving that place anymore energy.

(Screen grab source: https://hal.science/hal-04103183v2/document

#Twitter #ClimateDenial

peterdutoit, 14 days ago to random

May update:

SST's and Surface Temp anomalies are all trending down.

"Global temperature is likely to continue to rise a bit for at least a month, peak this summer, and then decline as the El Nino fades toward La Nina."

"Present extreme planetary energy imbalance will limit La Nina-driven temperature decline. Thus, El Nino/La Nina average global temperature likely is about 1.5°C, suggesting that, for all practical purposes, global temperature has already reached that milestone." — Hansen et al

Sea Surface Temperature anomaly as of May 23rd 2024
Surface air temperature anomaly as of May 23, 2024

peterdutoit, 3 months ago to climate

No matter which way you look at our predicament, whether its the attempt to reduce emissions (8.7% annual reduction required for a 1.5ºC pathway or 5.3% for a 2ºC pathway) or whether we look at how much renewable energy is planned vs required. We are completely off track

Does this mean we need to stop trying? Of course not! Every 0.1ºC reduction matters immensely! But best we get ready for a world of climate chaos as we go past 1.5ºC and then 2ºC

This is the path we are on

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#ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 1 year ago to random

These 291 weather stations have been collecting a wide range of weather data, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and direction, and solar radiation for at least 100 years.

The commitment to keep these running form the backbone of our monitoring climate change.

Source: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/centennial-weather-stations-are-vital-climate-monitoring

#ClimateLiteracy #Instruments #ClimateChange

peterdutoit, 3 months ago to climate

Leadership teams: If these two graphs and their implications are not being discussed in real earnest in your boardroom then disruption, that will make the covid experience seem mild, awaits.

Be assured climate chaos will impact your business in one way or another.

How ready are you?

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #Leadership #Disruption

peterdutoit, 1 month ago (edited 1 month ago) to climate

#ClimateLiteracy ~ The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway that we seem to be on is SSP2-4.5

What does this mean?

Near-term - ie in the next 16 years - temperatures will reach between 1.2° to 1.8°C permanently. (IPCC, very likely)

In 2024, we are already at a permanent 1.3°C and 1.5°C is imminent (projected 2030-2033)

2ºC is almost certain.

We need to figure out rather quickly what the world will look like at this threshold and prepare as best we can.

#ClimateCrisis #Adaptation

peterdutoit, 28 days ago to climate

What can individuals do about the #ClimateCrisis

In order of impact:

🚫Live car free
🚙 Shift to BEV
✈️ One less flight (long return)
☀️ Use renewable energy
🚋 Shift to public transport
🔨 Refurbishment and renovation
🥗 Vegan diet
🆒 Heat pump
⏲️ Improved cooking equipment
♨️ Renewable-based heating

Data:

1. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8589
2. Demand, Services & Social Aspects of Mitigation https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter05.pdf

#ClimateLiteracy

peterdutoit, 15 days ago to Mexico

#Mexico faces unprecedented heat danger:

“It is unprecedented, because communities will experience temperatures that they have not faced. It is the task of the Institute to make it known to the citizens so that they can take appropriate measures.”—Jorge Zavala Hidalgo, Director, ICAyCC

“Most of [Mexico City’s] metropolitan area's 21 million residents — accustomed to more temperate weather — lack air conditioning.”

#Heatwave #ClimateCrisis

https://www.dgcs.unam.mx/boletin/bdboletin/2024_388.html

peterdutoit, 15 days ago to random

This all in the face of this reality:

“The lack of stringent emission reductions means that the required emission cuts from now to 2030 have increased significantly. To reach emission levels consistent with a below 2°C pathway in 2030, the cuts required/yr are now 5.3% from 2024, reaching 8.7%/yr on average for the 1.5°C pathway. To compare, the fall in total global GHG emissions from 2019 to 2020 due to the COVID pandemic was 4.7%”

From: @junglegeorge
https://mastodon.africa/@junglegeorge/112500342788331213

peterdutoit, 4 days ago to climate

NB: Brazil flood warnings were available for a week in advance:

“but the warning may not have reached all of those at risk, and the public may not have understood the severity of the impacts or known what actions to take in response to the forecasts.”

We are generally woefully unprepared for a world close to a permanent +1.5°C of heating.

#ClimateCrisis #Brazil #ClimateLiteracy

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-made-the-floods-in-southern-brazil-twice-as-likely/