peterdutoit

peterdutoit, 8 hours ago (edited 5 hours ago) to random

IRI Temperature Probability Forecast for June-July-August:

"Regarding temperature, 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙤𝙣𝙜𝙡𝙮 𝙚𝙣𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚𝙙 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙗𝙖𝙗𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 for above-normal temperature are forecasted across most land areas throughout the forecast period." (Emphasis mine)

Where are you on the map?

Full forecast: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

What is a probability forecast? https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/08/probability-forecast/

#ClimateLiteracy

peterdutoit, 1 day ago to climate

We are completely and utterly unprepared.

“Inconsistent or incomplete planning, a lack of funding, and the failure to make timely preparations to shield a population of 1.4 billion are leaving communities vulnerable as periods of extreme temperatures become more frequent, longer in duration and affect a wider sweep of country.”

#ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #India

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-05-16/india-election-2024-fatal-heat-waves-are-becoming-a-test-for-modi

peterdutoit, 2 days ago to climate

Latest Hansen, Kharecha, Sato communication:

“Present extreme planetary energy imbalance will limit La Nina-driven temperature decline. Thus, El Nino/La Nina average global temperature likely is about 1.5°C, suggesting that, for all practical purposes, global temperature has already reached that milestone.”

A full 6 years earlier than projected.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/MayEmail.2024.05.16.pdf

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy

peterdutoit, 2 days ago to climate

While DeSantis removes climate change terminology from Florida state law...

"At this point, we're not even sampling from the same climate that we had in 2023 and before. This👇🏻would be as close to statistically impossible as it gets."—@bmcnoldy

#ClimateCrisis #HeatIndex #Heatwaves #Florida #KeyWest

peterdutoit, 2 days ago (edited 2 days ago) to random

Jan 12, 2024, Hanson, Sato & Ruedy:

“We expect record monthly temperatures to continue into mid-2024 due to the present large planetary energy imbalance, with the 12-month running-mean global temperature reaching +1.6-1.7°C relative to 1880-1920 [already reached in the ERA5 & Berkeley Earth datasets] and…

1/2

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

Hausfather thread: https://bsky.app/profile/hausfath.bsky.social/post/3kskdf4xsg226

peterdutoit, 3 days ago to random

DID YOU KNOW:

"A systematic review demonstrates that 26 of 39 studies identified suggest that teleworking [#RemoteWork ] reduces energy use, induced mainly by distance travelled, and only 8 studies suggest that teleworking increases or has a neutral impact on energy use."

#ClimateLiteracy

Data:👇🏻

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter05.pdf

peterdutoit, 3 days ago to climate

Dr Friederike Otto on the intense deadly heatwaves that many places in Asia experienced in April and into early May:

"The world is not prepared for today's climate change, [+1.3ºC which is latest 5-year average above preindustrial] let alone the future."

#ClimateCrisis #Heatwave

Story here👇🏻

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-made-the-deadly-heatwaves-that-hit-millions-of-highly-vulnerable-people-across-asia-more-frequent-and-extreme/

peterdutoit, 4 days ago to climate

Heat stress arrives in Florida - forecast for Wednesday May 15, 2024.

Reminder the number of days this region will be exposed to heat-stress is set to increase as we continue to heat.

Background heating +1.3ºC (latest 5-year average)

1.5ºC imminent and 2ºC to follow shortly thereafter.

#ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #Florida

Map showing heat-humidity risks to human health at certain global temperature levels

peterdutoit, 4 days ago to Mexico

While much is being said about the fires burning in Canada let us not forget #Mexico!

Mexico Is Battling 159 Active Wildfires: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2024-05-10-mexico-is-battling-159-active-wildfires/

Background heating +1.3ºC (latest 5-year average)

+1.5ºC imminent

Map data: https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@-85.7,36.5,4.3z

#ClimateCrisis #Wildfires

peterdutoit, 4 days ago to climate

NOAA HMS smoke detection - North America

🟧 Heavy
🟨 Medium
🟩 Light

Data: https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?layers=ab7a5fbd76e3499296350eabf599fc63

#Wildfires #ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 4 days ago to climate

Who are on the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis

• those living in places that are close to human and animal thermal limits
• those living near rivers and ice
• those living near coastlines.

As we continue to heat the risks are going to rise exponentially on the front lines, and it’s happening already at +1.3° of heating.

We can’t avoid 1.5° which is now imminent. Climate chaos awaits.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/persistent-brazil-floods-raise-specter-climate-migration-2024-05-13/

#Floods #Brazil #ClimateMigration

peterdutoit, 6 days ago to climate

What can individuals do about the #ClimateCrisis

In order of impact:

🚫Live car free
🚙 Shift to BEV
✈️ One less flight (long return)
☀️ Use renewable energy
🚋 Shift to public transport
🔨 Refurbishment and renovation
🥗 Vegan diet
🆒 Heat pump
⏲️ Improved cooking equipment
♨️ Renewable-based heating

Data:

1. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8589
2. Demand, Services & Social Aspects of Mitigation https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter05.pdf

#ClimateLiteracy

peterdutoit, 7 days ago to random

"Key numbers on Porto Alegre & surrounding state per Folha de S.Paulo

• 95 dead
• 131 missing
• 50k homeless
• 160k evacuees
• 17 hospitals closed
• Airport closed indefinitely
• 450k homes without power
• 85% of city's 1.3 mln residents without working water supply"—Brain Winter

peterdutoit, 7 days ago (edited 7 days ago) to brazil

"I don't say this lightly - but the floods in #PortoAlegre, #Brazil, are looking comparable to what Katrina did to New Orleans in 2005 -- massive evacuations, water & power outages, key infrastructure damaged, parts of city, possible long-term consequences."—Brian Winter

Background heating +1.3ºC

#ClimateCrisis

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peterdutoit, 7 days ago to climate

Essential weekend viewing!

🎬 The 2024 F-List Awards — The tales that the fossil fuel industry and their ad agencies would rather keep hidden. https://youtu.be/wkgcqKmRd3U

Great work from the Clean Creatives team! (https://cleancreatives.org/)

#ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy #GreenWashing

peterdutoit, 8 days ago to climate

New record for largest 12-month gain (4.7 ppm) in CO2 concentration ever observed

“If this El Niño follows the pattern of the last El Niño, the world might experience a very high growth rate for several more months.”— Ralph Keeling, director CO2 Program Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Source: https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/2024/05/08/largest-year-over-year-gain-in-keeling-curve-set-in-march/

El Niño growth surges have been happening on top of the long-term increase in CO2 growth tied to rising fossil fuel emissions, which have increased 5% from 2016
#ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 9 days ago to climate

When are we projected to cross +1.5ºC permanently?

In March 2023 the date was 12 years in the future
In March 2024 the date is now 9 years away

What a difference a year makes.

Data: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/apps/c3s/app-c3s-global-temperature-trend-monitor

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 9 days ago to climate

These instrument readings serve as a stark reminder of our current trajectory.

They not only reflect our past and present actions but also foreshadow a future dictated by them - ie a world that has heats to between 2.1-3.5ºC

It is only when these figures begin to reverse that we can confidently say our efforts to change course are effective.

Pay attention to the instruments!

Graphic source: https://fediscience.org/@ZLabe/112340885914056186

#ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis

peterdutoit, 10 days ago to random

“April 2024 was the moistest April on record for the planet, continuing a run of record-moist months that dates back to last year.

“62% of Earth had above normal moisture content during the month, which is being strongly influenced by warming seas and the remnant effect of El Niño.

“In my opinion, this moistening trend is just as important as the warming trend as it relates to the potential increase in flood frequency and/or intensity into the future.”— Ben Noll

#ClimateLiteracy