An inflationary spiral based on expectations. It is a very different one from a deflationary one.
In the case of supply chain disruption (think floods and drought) it's a supply shock and at best businesses have to scramble to adapt (invest etc) to get around the problem. But hammering COL demand is perverse.
In all cases, messing around with interest rates is largely an exercise in futility.
Elsewhere the arrival of the Taylor Swift tour has prompted discussion (expectations) of how the tour ticket sales & other expenditure will prompt a focussed economic boomlet....
In the UK, predictions are focussed on the likely expansion of ticketing fraud.
As Rachel Reeves stresses the link between international relations & economics... for those of us who've been (in my case) or still are International Political Economists, this is all very much what we've been talking about for decades.
So, for those of you wondering how that might work, one great book that brings a lot of the things Reeves is talking about together is:
If you think consumer sentiment (confidence) is a good indicator of the general state of the economy, you'll (perhaps) be unsurprised that across the EU and in UK & USA, such sentiment has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Given the continuing cost of living crises, high(er) interest rates & a range of issues from conflicts to climate change, its perhaps more surprising sentiment has not declined more.
But, if capitalism is a system built on confidence about the future....
"The Great Retrofit is a near-future version of the city of Messina, in Sicily. Its science fictional element is the rise, and success beyond expectations, of a new type of economic agent, a form of for-benefit company that follows a quintuple bottom line approach, having the objective to improve its own performance across five dimensions: surplus (rather than profit), people, planet, beauty and truth, or knowledge sharing."
Good from Bill Mitchell on how the City of London lobbies and effectively controls government policy, even having an official parliamentary lobbyist, The Remembrancer, installed opposite the Speaker's chair.
Good too on Labour’s fear of the City and why this is wrong. Effective legislation can easily curb its power.
Ah, #capitalism. Neoclasical (mainstream) economic theory tells us it ensures resources will be put to the best, most efficient use. However, ignores the obvious: wealth equals power, so that what is "best" for society is what the richest value.
Like chasing everlasting youth by getting weekly blood transfusions from your teenage son and $40,000 gym membership add-ons.
"Modern #economics does not distinguish between renewable and non-renewable materials, as its very method is to equalise and quantify everything by means of a money price. Thus, taking various alternative fuels, like coal, oil, wood, or waterpower: the only difference between them recognised by modern economics is relative cost per equivalent unit. The cheapest is automatically the one to be preferred, as to do otherwise would be irrational and ‘uneconomic’."
A thing I think he doesn't give enough attention to is the role the Fed DOES play. The Fed indirectly controls bank lending rate through a couple mechanisms. The first is whatever rules it has for declaring a bank solvent. They've eliminated reserve requirements but now it's something like a stress test or whatever. A bank can't keep lending
I was fiddling around online recently and came across the trope that there's some kind of housing shortage in the US. Jeeze Louise! I thought we'd solved that forever ago. This guy 'splained it in '92:
The model of 'flexible' labour markets with few(er) protections for workers & curtailed unions was (mainstream economists predicted) going to delver innovation, spur entrepreneurship & lead to better-paid jobs... but we actually have got from it is an economy patterned by low-wage labour, inequality, falling real wages & labour exploitation (via precarious working).
As Larry Elliot suggests, its time to follow unions urging to try a different way!
"The literature on degrowth routinely argues (appropriately so) that the global north rather than the global south must be the target for change, but it may well be that the vanguard for degrowth resides, paradoxically, in the global south. It may be that subconscious bias causes us to believe that the global south must catch up with the economic production of the wealthiest states, rather than encouraging us to imagine that the wealthy states need to catch up to the level of consciousness displayed by the most radical societies in the global south."
Self-interest + shortermism + monopoly power = whatever this shit is:
"Frontier knew that it could make a billion dollars in profit over a decade by investing in fiber build-out, but it chose not to, because stock analysts will downrank any carrier that made capital investments that took more than five years to mature. Because Frontier's execs were paid primarily in stock, they chose... to leave a billion dollars sitting on the table..."
“ One look at this chart should be sufficient to understand why the Great Crash of 1929 was both great, and a major cause of the Great Depression which followed it, and why levered speculation, rather than rational calculation, dominates the behaviour of asset markets.”
I’m kind of curious what the system response (of housing prices) to a deceleration of interest rates. If price changes reflect acceleration of home loan interest rates, how does a deceleration propagate into the economy? The US economy is built upon the housing sector. It plays an outsized role in economic health.