Here's the latest variant picture for Western Australia.
The XBB.1.5.* "Kraken" variant (20%) has continued to decline and has been overhauled by the XBB.1.9.* "Hyperion" clan (30%).
XBB.1.16.* "Arcturus" (11%) is growing a bit recently, but seems lower than in other Australian states.
The variant mix in WA continues to be uniquely chaotic, reflecting it's stituation as a global crossroads. Even WA residents who've been racking up regular reinfections are likely to meet globally obscure variants capable of overcoming their immunity.
The sample volumes seem representative up to May 2.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) press release 17. May 2023 - "There is a 66% likelihood that the annual average near-surface global #temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. There is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.
“This report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement which refers to long-term warming over many years. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Prof. Taalas."
Key points
The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15°C above the 1850-1900 average. The cooling influence of La Niña conditions over much of the past three years temporarily reined in the longer-term warming trend. But La Niña ended in March 2023 and an El Niño is forecast to develop in the coming months. Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024.
The annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the 1850-1900 average. This is used as a baseline because it was before the emission of greenhouse gases from human and industrial activities.
There is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
The chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being higher than the last five years is also 98%.
#Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than three times as large as the global mean anomaly when averaged over the next five northern hemisphere extended winters.
Predicted precipitation patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the #Sahel, northern #Europe, #Alaska and northern #Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the #Amazon and parts of #Australia.
Here's the latest variant picture for South Australia.
The "Deltacron" XBC.1.6 variant (35%) has been dominant since early April - globally unique.
95% of the XBC.* samples shared since April have come from Australia, and South Australia seems the only state where it is anyware near dominant.
XBB.1.16 "Arcturus" (12%) looks a possible challenger, but only growing slowly. Be alert for conjunctivitis symptoms, which seem more common with that variant.
The sample volumes seem representative up to May 9.
Australian native flowers often have a particular look. In the same way you can sometimes tell just by looking at them that a plant is from South Africa, or Europe, the same is sometimes true for Australia.
This is a Banksia (b. spinulosa), and you can see similarities with things like grevilleas, or callistemons (bottlebrush).
Nice! #Apple has just sent Satellite SOS live for #iPhone14 in #Australia. Here's my hands-on live test video of the service, plus how to use it (which you hopefully will never need to):
Here's an update on my metric for Australia and it's states and territories:
"Days since Health Leadership faced the public on COVID".
I'm tracking the last date that CMOs/CHOs etc in each jurisdiction last held a press conference or similar and took questions from the media on COVID.
A minor tweak to the method this week - deaths and cases are now only counted from the day after the last press conference. This mainly affects the ACT results.
I also had a stray filter in last week's results, which affected the VIC, TAS & NT results.
Good morning, so the EBU keeps claiming that a eurotrash song (mishmash of "Euphoria" and "The winner takes it all") that didn't get a single #12points in the televote is the winner of #eurovision It stinks so bad of corrupted jury 🤬
The more I look into it, the fishier everything stinks. How does #Australia go from winning the semifinal-2 with 149 points to getting only 21 televotes in the final behind countries that were also in the semifinal2?
It's time to call the police 🚓🚨 some people cashed lots of money in bets for something that screams: RIGGED!
Still utterly torn between #Australia ❤️ and #Finland 💚 for my favourite. Totally different and can't pick between them. Then really impressed by #Moldova and #Czechia. #Eurovision