SolarHam: X2.5 / CME Update
February 16, 2024 @ 12:20 UTC
"Multiple coronal mass ejections are visible in the latest cornagraph imagery.
"For the third day in a row, an energetic eruption was observed off the farside of the Sun. This will obviously be directed away from Earth.
"The impulsive X2.5 solar flare around AR 3576 this morning resulted in a beautiful eruption of plasma off the southwest limb. Although there is currently a gap in imagery, the main stream of plasma appears to be headed away from Earth. I do not expect a noteworthy impact from this event."
Current Solar Flare Threat
C-Flare: 99%
M-Flare: 60%
X-Flare: 15%
Proton: 15%
Yup. I was right. It was AR3415, now AR3536. Batten down the hatches!
Spaceweather:
MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Mere hours after emerging over the sun's eastern limb on Dec. 31st, big sunspot AR3536 erupted, producing a major X5-class solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash.
Radiation from the flare has caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over the Pacific Ocean: blackout map. #HamRadio operators may notice loss of signal at all frequencies below 30 MHz for more than 60 minutes after the flare's peak (2155 UT).
It's too soon to know for sure, but this explosion probably launched a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. Because the blast site is located near the extreme eastern edge of the sun, the CME is unlikely to have an Earth-directed component, but stay tuned. Solar flare alerts: SMS Text
Update: This explosion caused a #SolarTsunami. You can see the shock wave in this animation from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.
This is the strongest flare of #SolarCycle25 (so far) and the most powerful eruption the sun has produced since the great storms of Sept. 2017.
Solar storms could cause train accidents, scientists warn
Story by Andrew Griffin, December 11, 2023
“#SpaceWeather – changes in the atmosphere that include blasts of energy from the Sun – can disrupt everything from communications to #PowerGrids. Scientists have repeatedly warned that the Earth faces potentially catastrophic danger from #SolarStorms, which could be powerful enough to bring down much of the #infrastructure on which we depend.
“Now researchers warn that danger could be enough to cause malfunctioning #rail signals, which in turn could lead to #TrainAccidents.
“Researchers modelled how geomagnetically induced currents from solar storms could cause danger, by looking at two routes: the Preston to Lancaster section of the #WestCoastMainLine, and the #GlasgowToEdinburghLine. Those are just two lines that rely heavily on that rail signal, and there are more than 50,000 signalling track circuits in the UK, which control the railway signal with an electric circuit.
“In the new study, they found that space weather would be able to change those circuits. Models suggest that could happen every few decades, the researchers found.
“’Crucially, our research suggests that space weather is able to flip a signal in either direction, turning a red signal green or a green signal red. This is obviously very significant from a safety perspective,' said Cameron Patterson from Lancaster University.
“’By building a computer model of the signalling track circuits using realistic specifications for the various components of the system, we found that space weather events capable of triggering faults in these track circuits are expected in the UK every few decades.'
“Patterson had previously worked on research that suggested solar storms could lead to 'right side' failures, where signals turn from green to red. Those are less dangerous, since trains will stay at a stop.
“But the new research suggests that they can also happen for 'wrong side' failures, that change signals to green. What’s more, they actually require less strength to be flipped, suggesting they could happen with less powerful solar storms.
“‘Our research shows that space weather poses a serious, if relatively rare, risk to the rail signalling system, which could cause delays or even have more critical, safety implications,' said Cameron. 'This natural hazard needs to be taken seriously. By their nature, high-impact, low-frequency events are hard to plan for, but ignoring them is rarely the best way forward.'
“In 1859, the world was hit by what is known as the ‘#CarringtonEvent’, which was powerful enough to knock telegraph signals offline as well as other disruptions. If that happened today, it would cause widespread disruption – including causing widespread problems on both train lines that were examined in the study.
“But there have been more recent, if less powerful, examples of space weather that is powerful enough to hit power grids. In 2003, the Swedish city of Malmo suffered problems from space weather, for instance.
“The work is reported in a new study, 'Wrong Side' Failures Caused by Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Electrified Railway Signalling Systems in the UK’, published in the journal Space Weather.”
"During this past weekend's strong G3-class geomagnetic storm, low-latitude #auroras spread as far south as #Texas and #Arizona. Upon further review, most of those lights were not auroras at all. Everything #red in this montage is an 'SAR arc'.
"'On Nov. 5th, the ring current was pumped up by hours of strong geomagnetic storming, with energy dissipating into these SAR arcs,' says Jeff Baumgardner of Boston University's Center for Space Physics. 'It was a global event. Our cameras registered #SAR arc activity from #Italy to #NewZealand.'
"Recent research has linked SAR arcs to another phenomenon that is not an aurora: #STEVE. The #mauve ribbon in the sky was not originally thought to have anything to do with Earth's ring current. Yet in 2015, observers in New Zealand caught a bright red SAR arc transforming itself into STEVE like a caterpillar into a butterfly.
"On Nov. 5th, Mark Savage may have witnessed the same metamorphosis over Northumberland, #UK:
"Visible to the naked eye, STEVE materialized from an overhanging red arc. 'The entire process took about 10 minutes,' says Savage. This timescale roughly matches that of another SAR-to-STEVE transition observed over Canada in April 2022. Clearly, the two phenomena are linked, but researchers aren't sure how.
"'The connection is still elusive,' says Carlos Martinis, a leading researcher in the field at Boston University. 'Sometimes SAR arcs evolve into STEVE--but not always. This is a very active field of research, involving citizen scientists and researchers.'
"Did you see an SAR arc on Nov. 5th? Submit your pictures to Spaceweather.com."
"Another day, another near X-Flare. The latest event around sunspot region 3435 measured M8.7 at 12:54 UTC (Sept 21). The active region is now almost directly facing Earth and in a good spot for Earth directed eruptions. Still too early to tell if a noteworthy CME is associated, however the flare itself was fairly short in duration. Stay tuned for more updates whenever necessary."
Have you been wondering what's happened to the sun's activity this mid-August? The sun has been busy but just need sending #solarstorms toward Earth. Stay tuned. More to come. #solarcycle25#spaceweather#spacewx