X-ray flux at GOES-16 has been nearly flat for the last 20 minutes, still at X1.3 allowing R3 (Strong) radio blackout conditions to persist across the northern and central Atlantic basin and surrounding regions, including eastern North America, northern South America, most of Greenland, northwestern Africa, and western Europe. #solarflare#spaceweather#spacewx
It's worth noting that AR3697 is the return of our old friend AR3664, which was responsible for numerous X-class flares and the strongest geomagnetic storm in over 20 years during its previous transit. #solarflare#spaceweather#spacewx
After a whole day and a half with no significant solar activity, newly-designated AR3685 — currently the largest active sunspot region on the visible disk as it rounds the east limb — just produced an M7.2 X-ray flare (R2 – Moderate radio blackout). This is on top of the X2.9 flare it produced while it was still on the far side of the limb, suggesting that its transit across the disk will be a busy one. #solarflare#spaceweather#spacewx
Well, that didn't take long: a new active sunspot region just around the east limb (possibly the future AR3683) just produced an X2.9 flare (R3 – Strong radio blackout), with only a 6-hour gap since the last X-class flare (X3.4) from former AR3664, which has rotated beyond the west limb. #solarflare#spaceweather#spacewx
This is likely the return of former AR3654, which produced an M9.5 flare near the end of its last transit across the solar disk; it has clearly continued developing during its rotation around the backside. #solarflare#spaceweather#spacewx
Type II and IV radio sweeps have already been picked up by SWPC, strongly implying that a CME was produced; however, given the region's location around the east limb, it's unlikely to be Earth-directed. #solarflare#spaceweather#spacewx
Looking back through the SWPC archives, the region responsible for this flare might actually be slightly further south than AR3654 was, so it might instead be either old AR3655 or an entirely new active region altogether. #solarflare#spaceweather#spacewx
I’m getting eaten alive out there but I do not care. If only I could get it in focus, total refusal on that one, my phone’s like YOU’LL SEE THE COLORS THRU ME AND YOU’LL FUCKING LOVE IT and yup yup no complaints I never in my life dreamed I’d see the Northern Lights from California!!! 😱😱🥹
Looks like we're seeing the first CME impacts now; a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse warning has been issued, and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are already being observed. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
And, because there obviously wasn't enough going on right now, an R1 (Minor) radio blackout is also in progress due to flare activity from AR3664. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storm threshold has also been exceeded, with proton flux rapidly increasing at GOES-18. (Looks like we're getting a little of everything today.) #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
Geomagnetic storm conditions have reached G3 (Strong) levels for the 1800-2100 UTC synoptic period, with a return to G4 (Severe) levels expected again within the next 20-30 minutes. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
SWPC uses a 3-hour synoptic period (starting at 0000 UTC) for calculating geomagnetic field disturbances and determining storm levels for forecasts and warnings; values reset when each new synoptic period starts. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot
Also keeping an eye on yet another long-duration X-ray flare event from AR3664 producing R1 (Minor) radio blackout conditions. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
Latest USAF magnetometer analysis report shows G5-equivalent geomagnetic field disturbances at every single station for the 3-hour period from 1600-1900 UTC.
It's looking somewhat possible that this geomagnetic storm event might reach the G5 threshold at some point in the next hour... #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora
It's also probable that this is only the first of several CME impacts, depending on whether (and how many) later CMEs caught up to and merged with earlier ones — the most recent WSA-Enlil model run shows a series of successive arrivals, with the second expected to be the strongest. #spaceweather#spacewx#aurora