I think I’m going to plug my computer back in. I don’t see any signs of weird power dips or anything, and it’s annoying just using my phone. Hopefully we don’t get anything that the surge protectors won’t stop, and stay at “pretty lights in the sky tonight” rather than apocalyptic #CarringtonEvent
So if the internet and power are knocked out this weekend, you can smugly tell your friends and family who are oblivious to today's sunspot activity: "It's solar storms. I knew that was a risk this weekend…" and then set about trying to break down your bookshelves and chairs for the bonfire that will cook your supper.
This looks quite 'interesting' for Friday/Saturday this weekend....
Might nip out to see any aurora, I won't go far just in case the car won't start afterwards 😂
Solar storms could cause train accidents, scientists warn
Story by Andrew Griffin, December 11, 2023
“#SpaceWeather – changes in the atmosphere that include blasts of energy from the Sun – can disrupt everything from communications to #PowerGrids. Scientists have repeatedly warned that the Earth faces potentially catastrophic danger from #SolarStorms, which could be powerful enough to bring down much of the #infrastructure on which we depend.
“Now researchers warn that danger could be enough to cause malfunctioning #rail signals, which in turn could lead to #TrainAccidents.
“Researchers modelled how geomagnetically induced currents from solar storms could cause danger, by looking at two routes: the Preston to Lancaster section of the #WestCoastMainLine, and the #GlasgowToEdinburghLine. Those are just two lines that rely heavily on that rail signal, and there are more than 50,000 signalling track circuits in the UK, which control the railway signal with an electric circuit.
“In the new study, they found that space weather would be able to change those circuits. Models suggest that could happen every few decades, the researchers found.
“’Crucially, our research suggests that space weather is able to flip a signal in either direction, turning a red signal green or a green signal red. This is obviously very significant from a safety perspective,' said Cameron Patterson from Lancaster University.
“’By building a computer model of the signalling track circuits using realistic specifications for the various components of the system, we found that space weather events capable of triggering faults in these track circuits are expected in the UK every few decades.'
“Patterson had previously worked on research that suggested solar storms could lead to 'right side' failures, where signals turn from green to red. Those are less dangerous, since trains will stay at a stop.
“But the new research suggests that they can also happen for 'wrong side' failures, that change signals to green. What’s more, they actually require less strength to be flipped, suggesting they could happen with less powerful solar storms.
“‘Our research shows that space weather poses a serious, if relatively rare, risk to the rail signalling system, which could cause delays or even have more critical, safety implications,' said Cameron. 'This natural hazard needs to be taken seriously. By their nature, high-impact, low-frequency events are hard to plan for, but ignoring them is rarely the best way forward.'
“In 1859, the world was hit by what is known as the ‘#CarringtonEvent’, which was powerful enough to knock telegraph signals offline as well as other disruptions. If that happened today, it would cause widespread disruption – including causing widespread problems on both train lines that were examined in the study.
“But there have been more recent, if less powerful, examples of space weather that is powerful enough to hit power grids. In 2003, the Swedish city of Malmo suffered problems from space weather, for instance.
“The work is reported in a new study, 'Wrong Side' Failures Caused by Geomagnetically Induced Currents in Electrified Railway Signalling Systems in the UK’, published in the journal Space Weather.”
#SolarMaximum could hit us harder and sooner than we thought. How dangerous will the sun's chaotic peak be?
The sun is quickly approaching a major peak in solar activity. Experts warn it could potentially begin by the end of 2023, years before initial predictions suggested.
By Harry Baker, June 23, 2023
"Originally, scientists predicted that the current solar cycle would peak in 2025. But a bumper crop of sunspots, #SolarStorms and rare solar phenomena suggest solar maximum could arrive by the end of this year at the earliest — and several experts told Live Science we are poorly prepared. "
• The sun is becoming more active and may reach peak activity sooner than expected.
• Solar maximum was predicted to happen in 2025, but #sunspot activity has changed that.
• An unusual burst of sunspots this year suggests solar maximum could hit by the end of 2023.
Now we know how a solar storm took out a fleet of Starlinks
by Carolyn Collins, April 3, 2023
"The folks at Starlink found that out the hard way in February 2022. On January 29th that year, the sun belched out a class M 1.1 flare and related coronal mass ejection. Material from the sun traveled out on the solar wind and arrived at Earth a few days later. On February 3, Starlink launched a group of 49 satellites to an altitude only 130 miles above Earth's surface. They didn't last long, and now solar physicists know why."