thoughtfulnz

thoughtfulnz, 17 days ago to random

From poops.nz national covid wastewater levels (copies per day per person) above anything seen since the end of 2022.

thoughtfulnz, 27 days ago to random

And in "no surprise with a new variant takeover", The NZ current cases page is showing change from Monday 6th to Monday 13th:

From 327 average daily reported cases last week to 477 today.

From 116 in hospital with covid on Sunday night last week to 152 this week.

thoughtfulnz, 29 days ago to random

Astronomical night (end of it getting fully dark) Auckland 6:54pm, Dunedin 7:04pm.
You have nothing to lose by looking for Aurora at an hour suited to both old and young alike.

thoughtfulnz, 29 days ago to random

For this evening, based on present data-

• likely cloud cover south of Dunedin otherwise clear
• nationwide potential to see Aurora, but Auckland latitudes might want to avoid local light pollution.
• start picking your photogenic foreground shots.

thoughtfulnz, 30 days ago to random

Potential G4 level aurora event tonight/tomorrow night. G4 is North Island visible.

thoughtfulnz, 1 month ago to random

FWIW, joining the worldwide trend, NZ wastewater concentrations of covid took a big jump last week, likely (based on growth rates) accompanying the fall from dominance of original JN.1 and rise of other variants.

Screenshot from poops.nz

thoughtfulnz, 2 months ago to random

There is a possibility (at this stage only a possibility, i.e. can happen, not will happen) of the Aurora Australis being seen from the upper North Island Monday/Tuesday

(source Hauraki Gulf Weather on Twitter)

thoughtfulnz, 3 months ago to random

I updated the "For 250 years death rates by age have been used to check mortality, and if you use them the claims of 17% excess for NZ go away because it is actually more living old people" graph with the full annual data just out.

thoughtfulnz, 3 months ago to random

With Q4 2023 population, an update to the "choose your own starting point" cumulative excess mortality graph. The removal of remaining NPIs (masking in care environments & testing/isolation) in August 2023 was a pretty stark change in direction

thoughtfulnz, 4 months ago to random

If you hear people talking about how much more likely a double boosted NZ person is to die than a person who has had one covid dose, keep in mind the median age age of single dose people is 11. The median age of double boosted people is around 70. It is not an immortality potion.

thoughtfulnz, 4 months ago to random

Wastewater covid levels updated at poops.nz Nelson is the main region that is still notably up

thoughtfulnz, 4 months ago to random

Free RAT covid tests extended from end-Feb to end-June

https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/whats-happening/news-and-updates/health-new-zealand-te-whatu-ora-media-statement/

thoughtfulnz, 5 months ago to random

The current cases page was updated (3rd). Kind of.

• New case reports down.

• Deaths potentially from covid down

• And I think hospitalisations and ICU are broke and showing the summary from the previous page state because they are both exactly the same as the previous & same change as last version.

thoughtfulnz, 5 months ago to random

Dunedin Aurora Nowcast at a rating of 8/9, but it is still light ATM so I am keeping a close eye on it

http://auroraalert.otago.ac.nz/aurora/prediction.html

thoughtfulnz, 5 months ago to random

There is some talk of tomorrow (Sunday) night being a potential aurora night for a goodly part of New Zealand, so just a heads up to keep an eye on how things are brewing going into tomorrow evening.

thoughtfulnz, 6 months ago to random

For those who still have Twitter accounts and use them, could I ask please do not pile in on this thread as I am trying to be very strategical, methodical, and careful in building a case for the truth.

Antivaxer part 2

thoughtfulnz, 6 months ago to random

More of what I was doing yesterday.

https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/350124156/claims-excess-deaths-related-vaccine-labelled-nonsense

thoughtfulnz, 6 months ago to random

With the international coordinated release of illegally obtained NZ patient information as part of antivax disinformation, it has been a long evening for me.

But I want to reiterate the latest false claims use all the same techniques to mislead as I outlined in my Skeptics Conference talk a little while ago. Because they have to mislead around the same reality whatever they claim to have discovered.

https://github.com/thoughtfulbloke/sk23

thoughtfulnz, 6 months ago to random

Prep for upcoming antivax disinfo-
NZ Average weekly death rates per million people:
Age: vax era/pre-covid
Under 60s: 23.1/23.6
60-79: 262.8/269.0
80+: 1850.7/1933.9
vax era = Feb 21 - Sep 23
pre-covid = Feb 17 - Sep 19
Every age group is lower in vax era
NZ worst weekly death rate per million people:
Age: vax era/pre-covid
Under 60s: 30.5/30.8
60-79: 326.7/347.6
80+: 2808.2/2815.0
vax era = Feb 21 - Sep 23
pre-covid = Feb 17 - Sep 19
Every age group is lower in vax era

thoughtfulnz, 6 months ago to random

Nationwide poops.nz covid in wastewater not dropping largely being driven by Auckland not dropping

thoughtfulnz, 6 months ago to random

Saturday NZ reported covid case numbers were 25% up on the previous Saturday.

Sunday was 42% up on previous Sunday.

Monday was 52% up on pervious Monday.

Tuesday was 65% up on previous Tuesday.