Today there is a high (level 5/5) risk for all modes of severe weather across the south central plains, including the potential for several cyclic supercells and long-track tornadoes.
One thing I miss about the #WxTwitter community is that there were handful of stats folks who could relay the last time we had a high risk day. Relying entirely on my memory, but it seems like it's been at least a year or two.
I guess it is worth noting that we aren't entirely out of the woods locally. It's easy to zero in on the bullseye for the threat area, but we do have a 10% risk for tornadoes locally in NW Arkansas, greatest risk after midnight as the storm system moves through.
From a climatological standpoint, most of the strongest storm systems in NWA are nocturnal, having formed during afternoon heating on the plains and spreading east through the evening and overnight. Usually brief QLCS tornadoes. #arwx
The latest Day 1 forecast from the Storm Prediction Center has expanded the moderate risk east into SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma, approaching the Missouri and Arkansas state lines. This reflects the increased risk for strong, damaging winds as storms move east overnight.
This doesn't change my plans other than I'll either stay awake or set an alarm to go off around the ETA for the storm complex.
#Sebastian, #Arkansas: National Weather Service: #TORNADO WARNING in this area until 9:15 PM CDT. Take shelter now in a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Check media. Source: NWS Tulsa OK
Severe Weather from NWS SPC on widespread, severe thunderstorms today and tuesday. Risk for very large (2+ inch) hail, tornadoes (including a few strong tornadoes) and damaging thunderstorm winds. #wx#SevereWeather#TXwx#KSwx#ARwx#MOwx#ILwx#INwx
A couple of photos from this afternoon and evening of snow in our neighborhood.
We ended up with between 2.5 and 3 inches (6-7 cm) of very dry snow in our subdivision in Bella Vista, AR. There is a slight chance for additional minor snow accumulation overnight as temps hold steady around 0F/-18C with wind chills between -5 and -12F.
From Dr Reed Timmer: The Storm Prediction Center has added a 15% risk for severe weather next Saturday across East Texas into portions of Louisiana and Arkansas ahead of a mega trough ejection. We will be activating live storm chase mode for this event. Never stop chasing.
From Dr Reed Timmer on YouTube: Live storm chasing returns Monday afternoon and overnight with #Tornado potential returning to Dixie alley. I would not be surprised if this is upgraded to an enhanced risk.
In Springdale this morning it's 75F degrees under clear skies and 100% humidity. Excessive heat warning has been issued with highs near 99F and a heat index approaching 121F.
More of the same from now through Friday before temps start to drop.
The storms last night were, fortunately, weaker than forecast. I recognized that fairly soon after leaving home, but it's hard to pass up a local chase if I'm already out!
This was a drone view from just outside Noel, Missouri, USA before a few close lightning strikes forced me to move.
Saturday morning actually supported more scenic storms with two rounds that rolled through NW Arkansas over the span of a couple of hours. Feels like a spring storm pattern!
First photo is a panorama of a shelf cloud passing over our neighborhood around 7 AM.
Second photo is a shelf cloud from a separate complex of storms moving in around 9 AM.
I wouldve sent up my drone but we live on the mile final for the runway of a nearby airport so that's sadly not an option from the front yard.