@carnage4life@mas.to
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carnage4life

@carnage4life@mas.to

Opinions about product management, technology news and inclusivity in tech. Diversity is about demographics, inclusion is about creating a sense of belonging.

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carnage4life, to random
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Google’s CEO talks about AI overviews in search and leaves us with two gems.

  1. Hallucinations are not a solved problem. LLMs are not the best approach for getting facts.

  2. People click on links in AI overviews more than if they were one of the ten blue links

I wonder how much people would click through links in AI overviews if those summaries could be trusted? It would be ironic if LLM hallucinations end up as the main reason Google search keeps sending sites traffic despite AI overviews.

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carnage4life, to random
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This headline made me wonder how many online services actually support the ability to bequeath your account to others in your will? It can’t be a lot.

Are there any?

carnage4life, to random
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I’ve been thinking about the connection between game industry layoffs and a 30 year low in Memorial Day movie ticket sales. Coupling this with Walmart’s recent earnings report that shows people are spending more on essentials and less on discretionary goods, this may be a HIRP.

High interest rates mean people are spending more on mortgages, car loans and credit card bills. There’s simply less money to spend on entertainment.

So both movies and games need to work harder to make the same money.

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carnage4life, to random
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I understand entrepreneurial track record matters a lot to investors but $6B of funding for “what if ChatGPT could say the N-word?” seems to be both an excessive amount of faith in a founder and a lack of imagination about where the opportunities lie with AI.

Sad Coffee GIF

carnage4life, to random
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Elon Musk’s xAI raises SIX BILLION dollars to build an anti-woke chatbot from investors including Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia, Fidelity and Saudi Arabia Kingdom’s Holding.

Elon kicked off layoff season with Twitter layoffs, maybe he’s kicking off ZIRP 2.0 now? 🤷🏾‍♂️

https://x.ai/blog/series-b

carnage4life, to random
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The EFF has come out against the current moves by Congress to explore ending the immunity for services that host content from being sued for what people say on them.

They rightly point out this just means the services with most money and lawyers will survive.

https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2024/05/sunsetting-section-230-will-hurt-internet-users-not-big-tech

carnage4life, to random
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The tech media can really only tell three stories

  1. Underdog versus big company.
  2. Here’s why this technology or company is bad.
  3. Here’s a poorly disguised press release masquerading as news.

OpenAI is no longer an underdog so it’s now on narrative #2.

https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-sam-altman-new-era-tech-villian-chatgpt-safety-2024-5

carnage4life, to random
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This is nuts to me. I’d never have predicted this outcome if asked on any day of the past twenty years.

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carnage4life, to random
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A thing I find interesting is how company cultures affect their success over time. An example is how Google famously has a bias for inaction.

The combination of lack of pressure on individuals to generate business results (OKRs) and being consensus driven which broke down at scale means doing nothing is the path of least resistance.

The search monopoly is also so entrenched that making product changes are more likely to be neutral to negative (see AI overviews) than be helpful. So why bother?

carnage4life, to random
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There is now an official date and time for my talk at Figma Config. 12:40PM - 1:00PM on June 27th.

I should be done with the final draft this weekend. My only concern is my slides seem too bland and text heavy for an audience of designers. 😭

https://config.figma.com/agenda/session?session_id=b0f537636365&lang=en

carnage4life, to random
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I’ve lost hundreds of followers on Twitter this week writing about the potential and impact of LLMs on people and businesses.

No idea if people are bored with the topic or my takes were just that bad.😁

Either way I think LLMs are disruptive and the question is just how disruptive not if.

carnage4life, to random
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OpenAI doing a content deal with News Corp is expected at this point as every major news site has erected a paywall.

That said it’s amusing to see OpenAI talk about “supporting the highest journalistic standards” when describing their deal to getting access to The New York Post and Thd Sun for use in ChatGPT.

https://openai.com/index/news-corp-and-openai-sign-landmark-multi-year-global-partnership/

carnage4life, to random
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I sometimes wonder if LLMs are this generation’s self driving cars? A decade ago self driving cars were so promising it was assumed they were 90% of the way to being ubiquitous. But now it looks like the last 10% of the work is taking 90% of the time.

LLMs work well 90% of the time. The question is how hard will it be to address that last 10%?

carnage4life, to random
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Despite believing Google had no choice but to go all in on AI overviews in Search, I have to admit these answers are really kicking their butt.

carnage4life, to random
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How it started vs. How it’s going

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carnage4life, to random
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$60 million well spent licensing that Reddit data for AI use.

carnage4life, to random
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The order of events here is supposedly that they hired a voice actor to create “Sky” in the style of Her. Later the CEO thinks why not go with the OG instead of a knock off.

Scarlett Johansson says no, so they ship their original plan but now look bad.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/05/22/openai-scarlett-johansson-chatgpt-ai-voice/

carnage4life, to random
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The huge potential of AI is being able to feed it all the documents about your business and ask it questions. It is truly a game changer to be able to ask questions about prior decisions or product specs as trivially as if it were a SQL query.

The problem is hallucinations.

Without addressing hallucinations, generative AI can help where accuracy is not a requirement like content generation from art to entertainment but it will fail to meet expectations of businesses spending billions on it.

carnage4life,
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Getting the wrong answer for “what were our sales numbers last year?” is an unforgivable sin in this scenario.

carnage4life, to random
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How it started versus How it's going

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carnage4life, to random
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"It's not Scarlett Johansson's voice. IT'S A VOICE ACTRESS THEY CAN'T NAME FOR PRIVACY REASONS"

carnage4life, to random
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Amazon plans to charge a fee for future versions of Alexa to offset the cost of LLM features. The pressure from ChatGPT is immense.

But how long this business model can last when Google is going to provide LLM features for free as part of search and Google Assistant?

carnage4life, to random
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I think crypto broke people’s brains. There was a clearly useless technology being hyped by pundits, VCs and tech companies which turned out as worthless as we all thought.

So there’s now a gut reaction to treating any hyped technology as a scam. The trend is similar to how after the dotcom crash, pundits proclaimed every year that we were in a bubble for almost two decades while big tech started generating hundreds of billions in revenue.

AI is the same. It’s hyped but there’s also substance.

carnage4life, to random
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The background hum of layoffs in both tech and tech adjacent fields continues unabated.

14% of Pixar losing their jobs is rough especially as this will be blamed on Disney’s overhiring to chase after Netflix. TikTok is a continuation of big tech’s inability to cut once & deep.

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carnage4life, to random
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Humane trying to find a buyer for its business after the disastrous AI pin launch is unsurprising.

Expecting $750M to $1 billion for it is downright hilarious.

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