It has now been more than two years since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In this video I give an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario for what will happen in year three. They are very different, and that shows the spectrum of possible outcomes. Nothing is decided yet, and it really could go either way. https://youtu.be/bJK5NYxGNOQ
Did I understand your assessment correctly that both ends of the spectrum are equally likely?
Let's pretend for the sake of argument that the #HouseGOP in the #US gets their collective heads out of their rear ends & approves aid. How much less likely does that make the worst case scenario on the battlefield?
Now what if they don't? How much less likely does that make the best case?
What's the likelihood of either side suffering something catastrophic?
❗ "Long before we had a pro-Kremlin traitor Donald Trump in the #WhiteHouse and #MAGA#HouseGOP insurrectionists in Congress, 18 U.S. Code § 2383 established that "whoever" gives aid & comfort to an insurrection "shall" suffer lifetime ban from "office under the United States.
The Constitutional authority is not simply from 14th Am. Sec 3 but also in Art III, Sec 3 that gave Congress the power to "declare the punishment for treason" and it has done so in 18 U.S. Code § 2381 - Treason banning anyone who "levies war against [the United States], and was charged after the Civil War for the insurrection. Long-standing US law incudes the following mandatory lifetime ban from office:
"Whoever . . . levies war against [the United States] ... [S]hall be incapable of holding any office under the United States."#uscourts"
#gop#HouseGOP#gop2024#Election2024#democrats GOP: “Secure the border! Secure the border! Secure the border! Secure the border!” Democrats: “Okay, we’ll secure the border.” GOP: “No thanks, we don’t want to make Biden look good.”
“Iran-backed” groups in #Syria and #Iraq claimed the drone strike that killed US troops. Let's be clear, it is #Iran which took over areas of those countries and enabled that situation in the first place.
All roads relating to terrorism eventually lead to Tehran or Moscow. Always.
ISIS continues to thrive in the Badia desert west of the Euphrates because instead defeating ISIS #Russia chose to keep an ISIS incubator to continue to destabilize Syria's majority Sunni areas and to enable #Iran to attack us forces in the anti-ISIS coalition across the river.
The #Iran-backed militia groups' social media accounts have been silent for hours after Kataib Hezbollah announced the suspension of its military operations against U.S. forces in Iraq.
This shows that Kataib Hezbollah number 1 responsible for every rocket and projectile fired in Iraq and Syria, with the approval of the IRGC and Iran, of course.
"If the fools in the #HouseGOP#treason caucus dare to impeach #AliMayorkas he should demand that Trump be subpoenaed to be questioned on his political motives in blocking the Senate bill. If the GOPoversight wants political theater, let's give them some.
Under oath and in the place where the leader of the insurrection sent a mob to overthrow the Constitution and become a dictator. And desecrate the People's House. And let @RepRaskin have at him for the longest day of his life. #SenSchumer#MoscowMitch McConnell #PressSec
Joe Biden's announcement he'll shut down the border if the MAGA House approve the #immigration deal will confirm they would rather install a dictator than stop the immigration crisis.
#TheDemocrats can then blame the GOP for the crisis to blunt republicans only strategy for November.
President Biden is calling their hand and their predictable slavish obedience to Trump will set the #HouseGOP up to be rightfully blamed for the crisis that Republicans created. -t.h.
"The #HouseGOP punched itself in the face to only reach the same #spending deal...There is no substantive difference between the agreement made between Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., despite Johnson’s attempts to say otherwise."
Grim assessment from Fiona Hill: "We've now reached a tipping point between whether Ukraine continues to win in terms of having sufficient fighting power to stave Russia off, or whether it actually starts to lose because it doesn't have the equipment."
And underscoring the stakes: If Congress doesn’t approve new Ukraine aid and support shifts away, 'Putin will be able to say, 'There you go. US is an unreliable ally. US is not a world leader.' And there will be a chilling effect for all our other allies
"I think it is quite likely that the #HouseGOP MAGA are coordinating their obstruction with a Russian offensive in #Ukraine. I make this assessment based on the level of desperate human wave attacks that Russia has begun deploying in the Donetsk region.
Defeated forces often seek one last battle to try to turn the tide. Germans tried in 1944 in the Arden, Japan's operation Sho at Leyte and the Tete offensive are notable. The only one that worked was Tete because US media & Congress fell for it. It's what I fear is happening."