A few things we know right going into this election:
1: Polls have historically underestimated how well Trump does on election day. 2: Polls have historically overestimated how well candidates like Biden, and Clinton do on election day. 3: No incumbent president has ever kept the role with polling below 51% nationally (Bush, 2nd term was the lowest). 4: Both Biden and Trump enjoy approval ratings below any candidate that has won a second term (not polling but approval).
When you look at polling data, you should think “Tied is winning” for Trump. Not for his sycophants, not for MAGA, but for Trump specifically, he consistently gets more people, people who are otherwise “Not likely to vote”; a great deal of effort is placed into getting polls to be unbiased, but you can’t measure something that you don’t know about, which is fundamentally why Trump so consistently outperforms his polling. I think this also explains why progressive candidates consistently outperform their polling, but that’s beyond the scope rn.
I’m planning on digging into these for my mid-month polling update and wanted to give it a solid few weeks for the Trump trial news to saturate so we can see if there really is a significant effect. I’m also planning a ‘battleground’ state analysis for this update to start building a “road to 270” outlook.
The other thing that really matters here, is going to be the trends. There has been much ado about the latest batch of polls, but its not really clear to me that Biden has ‘ticked up’ in polling, so much as that Trump has “ticked down” post becoming a felon. To just put that into context neither Trump or Biden have been ‘improving’ in their polling since last summer, although Biden’s had dropped more precipitously than Trumps. We’ll see if Trumps ‘dump’ here is as real as the news cycle would have you believe, but keep in mind that no incumbent president has ever been competitive with an approval even remotely close to Biden’s.
My hope is by getting a little more granular into the battle ground states, the snr will be a bit better. I’m hopping to get the work done wednesday.
They may have governed to the right, but that’s not what got them elected. Both of those candidates campaigned as progressives, or adopted highly progressive platforms.
You know. Campaigning. The part where you get elected?
And the two Democrats who campaigned to the center right, Hillary and Kerry, both lost their elections.
To be clear: We’re talking about campaigning right now, not governance.
Who would be doing what? Biden took his platform far to the left in 2020 and it got him enough of Bernies collation to get him elected. Obama ran on healthcare and holding banks accountable.
And also…
A whole team of people who know far more than you are I,
No they fucking don’t. These are the same consultants that advised Hillary to prop up Trump in the primaries.
The fact is that if you are a Democrat running for President, at least giving lip service to progressive polices gets you elected. There is no requirement you govern that way once elected, but if you don’t at least entertain the Progressive vote as a Democrat, you don’t win the presidency.
Biden has governerned as a regressive chump, but the DNC platform of 2020 was the most progressive platform for any major political party, pretty much since Roosevelt. Biden’s 2020 campaign was one of the most progressive in US history, from a policy perspective.
I mean it got him elected. I’m cynical enough that I want him to do it again. But he’s not going to get elected continuing to spit in the face of progressives.
He tanked the economy and killed over a million with his handling of COVID, the wall didn’t get built, Mexico didn’t pay for any of the repairs that did, Hillary has -34 felonies to her name, his trade war with China didn’t bring back manufacturing, Russia was emboldened by his term, American global superiority was damaged by his garbage foreign policy, fossil fuel usage is continuing to decline in favor of renewables…
I agree with all that. But you and I don’t live in the same world that Republican voters do. They litterally live in a completly different media and ‘story of history’ landscape. You obviously do, and should, despise all of the things that Trump did while he was president. But there is no denying that these were the things that Republican voters wanted him to do. And he gets to blame any failures on Democrats or the deep state or whatever other kookie bullshit they come up with.
You can and should hate the Republican agenda, but you shouldn’t put blinders on to suggest that Trump didn’t pursue it aggressively, and actually accomplish much of it. He got tax cuts for billionaires. He got the Supreme Court, and thus Roe. He at least tried to do almost all of the things he said he would do. You should disagree with all of those things, but you are not a Republican voter. Neither am I. But we should be clear headed about what Republican voters want, especially considering how horrible it all is.
Trump and Biden neck and neck nationally and in battlegrounds (www.cbsnews.com)
Alex Jones agrees to liquidate his assets to pay Sandy Hook families, in move that would end his ownership of Infowars (www.cnn.com)
Forgot to check at EOD.. (lemmy.world)
Oh and it looks like its up another 50% ah....
Tesla CEO Elon Musk could leave if $56 billion pay package not approved, shareholders warned (www.theverge.com)
Showing Contempt for Young Voters Is a Great Way for Democrats to Lose in November (www.thenation.com)
Joe Biden’s Terrible Israel Policy Is Really About Getting in Bed With Saudi Arabia (theintercept.com)
Florida divers find trove of suspected cocaine packages in Atlantic Ocean (www.theguardian.com)
Biden campaign hires former GOP Chief of Staff to win Haley voters (www.npr.org)
I'm getting a very "January 2020" vibe... (lemmy.world)
On Tuesday these Republicans voted to defund Nato (www.newsweek.com)
Progressives Urge Biden to Push Harder on ‘Greedflation’ (www.nytimes.com)
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