With a forecast like this about the growth of #ElectricVehicles most of the responses quite correctly will point out that it vastly underestimates the rate of growth of BEVs: Not slow and steady but heading for an inflection point (S-curve).
What no serious commentator complains about: There is no space for #HydrogenFuelCells in this chart because #hydrogen can't compete on roads. Both the fuel cell technology and #hydrogen production are too expensive compared to #batteries and the grid.
Since its launch in 2014, the Toyota #Mirai#HydrogenFuelCell car had worldwide sales of 21,745 (as of Nov 2022).
By comparison, a total of 2,300,000 electric cars were sold in the first three months of 2023 alone (according the International Energy Agency). That's about as many BEV's every single day as hydrogen cars in the last 9 years!
@Hypx
The CHEAPEST Toyota Mirai costs 10% MORE than the most EXPENSIVE model of the VW ID.4 in Japan and 35 percent more than than the cheapest Tesla Model 3 (both of these BEVs seat 5 while the Mirai only seats 4).
Even then Toyota reportedly loses money on every Mirai it sells.
#HydrogenFuelCell cars are anything but cheap to make, despite years of efforts to cut costs by reducing the amount of platinum and other expensive materials needed to build fuel cells and high pressure gas tanks.
@Hypx
Why is it such an uphill struggle for #HydrogenFuelCell vehicles against battery #ElectricVehicles ?
Well, one derived its technology from tech used by NASA in the Apollo program but saw little use after that while the other benefitted from billions of lithium ion cells made to power laptops and mobile phones. Mobile devices provided a ready market that led to mature, low cost products while FCVs are basically still aerospace tech (small numbers, high costs).
The relative efficiency of #BatteryElectric and #HydrogenFuelCell vehicles (wind turbine to wheels) from a post by Auke Hoekstra of Eindhoven University of Technology.