pvonhellermannn,
@pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

There is no question that will be the most important yet. The will be the “biggest accountability moment in history”, and on its basis leaders will need to make crucial key decisions about fiscal and policy commitments. With less than two months to go, we need to all be as well informed as possible and put pressure on leaders as much as we can. I thought I would start a 🧵that I will keep going in the run up 1/n

https://www.wri.org/un-climate-change-conference-resource-hub/key-issues-watch-cop28

pvonhellermannn, (edited )
@pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

2/n but a 🧵that is meant as an open, ongoing conversation, where we can all contribute thoughts and perhaps, even, come up with a collective #ClimateDiary action of some kind!

As a start: i would be grateful if people could keep cynical responses - COPs are all useless, they never work, they are captured by #FossilFuel industry (this one is in #Dubai ffs!) etc etc - to a minimum [* EDIT: see post 6!] I am aware of all this and have these thoughts too. But #COP28 is nevertheless important,

pvonhellermannn,
@pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

3/n and we need to at least try to do whatever we can to ensure the best possible outcome - even if this is minimal and will only highlight our powerlessness etc. as a minimum, we have to understand what’s going on.

I am saying this as after and in the run up to i kept on tweeting about the but seemed to be virtually the only one. It may well be that I was misguided but i couldn’t help wondering whether

https://www.energymonitor.ai/opinion/opinion-when-the-dust-has-settled-at-cop26-it-is-the-ratchet-mechanism-that-will-keep-1-5c-alive/

Loukas,
@Loukas@mastodon.nu avatar

@pvonhellermannn if expending a lot of energy will only change the outcome very slightly or not at all, then maybe the best use of energy is to devote it elsewhere? This is not a cynical take, this is about identify realistic arenas for change. Setting up big summits as places where things can happen is what I think breeds cynicism. Such conferences are where the years and months of work so far is formalised, rather than a fluid terrain which can itself be altered.

pvonhellermannn,
@pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

@Loukas i know. To be honest i go back and forth on this. But just now i feel in these months, in the run up to COP, we do need to at least know the basics of what is at stake and what people are working on what, in those spheres, and what the thinfs are that we should be paying most attention to. It’s not good enough to zone out at this time.

Loukas,
@Loukas@mastodon.nu avatar

@pvonhellermannn I'm not saying to zone out, I'm saying to zone in on where positive change can happen.

pvonhellermannn,
@pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

@Loukas yes sorry, i wasn’t implying you were zoning out at all! Clearly, very evidently not. I meant zoning out from following the COP process. And i was using that phrase only in reference to myself, as that’s what i have been doing a bit with this COP, but decided to focus and be engaged after all

Loukas,
@Loukas@mastodon.nu avatar

@pvonhellermannn This raises another point that I'd like to frame hopefully and positively rather than cynically.

There is power in denying our attention to the rituals of power! Our attention is one of the main resources we have.

The pageantry of decision-making says: look at me, I am where it all happens.

I'd say no. Let's give our attention to our neighbours, let's really listen to them, and let's build relationships that will allow us to put our demands to the decision-makers.

Loukas,
@Loukas@mastodon.nu avatar

@pvonhellermannn so although it sounds to me that you are saying you have a bad conscience about ignoring COP I'd say your subconscious is maybe more wise than you give it credit, and has been protecting you from wasting your valuable energy:)

pvonhellermannn,
@pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

@Loukas 😄 point taken!

pvonhellermannn, (edited )
@pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

4/n it’s also the case that most of us are just not well-informed enough about processes and details; we have placards that say “system change now”, but would it not sometimes be better to at least understand what specific commitments our governments need to make at what points and ask for those? I am inspired in all this by this photo by during But fully acknowledge my take may be naive, uninformed and misguided itself.

inquisitivesoft,

@pvonhellermannn I love this mini- sign. Very good specificity…

There’s been a shift in the UK (I don’t know other contexts) Just Stop Oil, Insulate Britain, Stop Rosebank to have the headline demand in the name so that it’s super obvious.

.. but.. my general feeling around protests is that they are about building sufficient pressure that can then give license to the people on the inside to be bold.

(This is just my view, from an activist perspective)

alberto_cottica,
@alberto_cottica@mastodon.green avatar

@pvonhellermannn this is also my main concern. "System change" is not an action or a set of policies, it is an outcome of multiple, necessarily specific policies. Which ones to roll out, and how to avoid unwanted side effects (like regressive effects of transitions away from fossil fuels), are all-important questions. And we have very few specific answers.

pvonhellermannn,
@pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

5/n Anyway, am starting today with this profile of the president of , Sultan , by Fiona Harvey, brilliant and insightful as ever. And yes, he is what he is. CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc). It’s deeply dismaying, but better to know and understand what we have

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/oct/07/meet-the-oil-man-tasked-with-saving-the-planet-cop28?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

TomSwirly,
@TomSwirly@toot.community avatar

@pvonhellermannn I'm sorry, but I will not be reading this article, where someone who is fabulously wealth through destroying the planet talks about plans to stop killing the planet - in 25 years.

What advantage is there reading this twaddle except to sap us of our will and fill us full of despair?

Politely asking our lords and masters, "Please, don't kill the biosphere, we live here!" has failed for generations.

Show me this man's obituary, then I'll celebrate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asymmetric_warfare

NatureMC,
@NatureMC@mastodon.online avatar

deleted_by_author

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  • TomSwirly,
    @TomSwirly@toot.community avatar

    @NatureMC @pvonhellermannn

    The link was supposed to be a hint to fill in the blanks.

    Generally, calling for out-and-out murder of people, even horrifying, world-destroying maniacs without whom the world would be a far better place, is frowned upon online, so I just skirt the issue.

    ClimateJenny,
    @ClimateJenny@mastodon.social avatar

    @pvonhellermannn I heard interviewed about on a podcast, and he’s really quite charming and reasonable-sounding. The pro-UAE argument seems to be, “they’re not Saudi Arabia, you know.” Inarguably true but I don’t know what that’s supposed to mean.

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @ClimateJenny Michael Mann makes that point in this podcast! 😊 I guess it’s supposed to mean that there is SOME room for manouvre, for real commitment to COP28, but how much … we shall find out

    https://mastodon.green/@pvonhellermannn/111205859820942798

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    6/n Today, in response to all the thought-provoking replies to this 🧵yesterday, an EDIT to post 2, above: it was not right to dismiss misgivings about as cynical; and also to try and steer people! Just wanted to clarify that am not saying that focusing on is the only thing that we should all be doing now, on the contrary, we need . Just that for now i feel i want to pay attention & thought i could share things here.

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    7/n Today sharing this podcast, with host David and @MichaelEMann, about . It’s about much more than but provides good context - in particular the role of like and the brothers

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000630044822

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    8/n Rothkopf mentions the “On the Road to ” podcast series are doing. I haven’t listened to any of them yet but look forward to doing so. Here the latest, Episode 3, on , with Peter and others

    https://thedsrnetwork.com/the-road-to-cop-28-episode-3-green-growth-part-1/

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    9/n Have been a bit quiet here with this series this week, due to events elsewhere ( ) and international responses. But the two are linked: by an underlying, deeply worrying crisis in . Just when we need it most, the international order is weaker than ever. Here an excellent piece on this ny Nathalie Tocci.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/multilateralism-broken-diplomacy-united-nations-eu-global-governance/

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    10/n I've been feeling so despondent about the state of the world and the prospects for that I found myself unable to continue this series, or in fact write much at all here. @kathhayhoe: a few months back we had an exchange about , when I argued that I wasn't driven by hope as much as . But I now recognise just how debilitating true hopelessness is, and that it is indeed a problem. I don't think I've ever had such a low. BUT:

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    11/n I just watched the WRI webinar "Responding to the Climate Crisis in Times of Uncertainty: A Clarion for Climate Leadership", and I am so very glad I did. Informative and inspiring, it brought home to me again just how crucial (and and - all three) really are.

    Now is not the time to give up on . As Tina Stege, the brilliant for the said: "We don't have a choice".

    https://www.wri.org/events/2023/11/responding-climate-crisis-times-uncertainty-clarion-call-climate-leadership

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    12/n I will share the webinar recording here as soon as it's available, and am fully resolved to continue this series. I am not an expert or insider, so may get things wrong, but I believe it's really important to stay engaged, to understand what's at stake, and yes, also just to do your bit, however small, to keep faith in and alive. Just because the more of us take it seriously, the better chances of success we have

    Edit: Here the recording

    https://www.wri.org/events/2023/11/responding-climate-crisis-times-uncertainty-clarion-call-climate-leadership

    mk30,

    @pvonhellermannn if i ever feel hopeless, i go out into nature and look at all the living things giving it their all to keep living and growing every single day. the plants and the fungi and the critters never give up, and we shouldn't give up on them either. i consider myself working with the plants and critters on the side of life, against a global biodeath machine. that's what keeps me going: the beauty of life itself. 🌱 💪

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    13/n decided to do a little here: brief explainers of key terms, familiar to many of you no doubt but perhaps useful to have in one place.

    Starting with . The was part of the : that every 5 years stock would be taken of where global policies and actions are at in terms of reducing carbon/green house gas emissions in order to stay under 1.5°C warming. This will be the first GST, and it’s important

    https://unfccc.int/topics/global-stocktake/about-the-global-stocktake/why-the-global-stocktake-is-important-for-climate-action-this-decade

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    14/n However, as has been evident for some time there is a significant - the gap between where emissions need to be at in order to keep warming below 1.5°C or even between 1.5°C-2°C, abs where they really are. This year’s will form the basis for the GST.

    https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2023

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    15/n an important distinction needs to be made here between the commitments so far made by countries (# or - more on these below) which are currently estimated to lead to 1.7-2.1°C warming by 2100 (which wouldn’t be too bad) and actual trajectories, fossil fuel licenses given etc. So there are several gaps: between where we need to be, pledges (NDCs), and actual practices

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/global-stocktake-unlocking-trillions-climate-action

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    #ClimateDiary 16/n apologies for pause in this #COP28 🧵. Now only 6 days to go until it starts (30th Nov) - stepping up again! To continue with #Glossary a bit more: #NationallyDeterminedContributions (NDCs) are what each country pledges to do - voluntarily. There is no binding obligation; this is how the #ParisAgreement finally happened. You csn read more here:

    https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    17/n Each country updates its annually; here, for example, is the 2022 UK one. There is also a website where all NDCs are listed; I will add this when I find it!

    https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-09/UK%20NDC%20ICTU%202022.pdf

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    18/n One of the (few) successes of in was the establishment of an : NDCs have to be “ratched up” every year, and they can’t go back. In theory, the IS a good system

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/nov/15/ratchets-phase-downs-and-a-fragile-agreement-how-cop26-played-out

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    19/n After i really thought that surely the and NDCs were where we should focus - climate activists in each country putting pressure on their governments to improve their NDCs substantially every year. But it turned out that i was alone in this. Like, even a year or so on, when i searched ratchet or NDCs in Twitter, i quickly came to my own tweets! Others explained this lack of interest in disillusion. Maybe but I am still a bit curious why noone ever talks about this.

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    20/n Anyway sceptics were probably right: this year’s synthesis report has shown that, so far, the ratchet hasn’t worked well enough; all governments, all NDCs are falling abysmally short of what’s needed.

    https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/sb2023_09E.pdf

    Here also a good Q&A on the Global Stock Take

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-what-is-the-global-stocktake-and-could-it-accelerate-climate-action/

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    21/n Another key concern at #COP28 is #LossAndDamage. This was the one area where there was real progress at #COP27 last year in Egypt: for the first time, countries agreed to set up a fund for vulnerable countries hit hard by climate disasters. Loss and Damage is simultaneously essential and deeply inadequate as a #ClimateJustice measure: no amount of money is going to compensate for the loss of entire Islands or cities! But it must be provided

    https://unfccc.int/news/cop27-reaches-breakthrough-agreement-on-new-loss-and-damage-fund-for-vulnerable-countries

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    22/n A couple of weeks ago, at a pre-COP28 meeting in #AbuDhabi, there was further real progress, when rich and poor country governments managed to agree on a blue-print of the #LossAndDamage fund. This will be announced officially in #Dubai at #COP28 next week, but it’s really good this is already in place - now we “just” need actual money to start materialising.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/05/countries-agree-key-measures-to-fund-most-vulnerable-to-climate-breakdown

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    23/n Another big theme at is wider , beyond Loss and Damage. This includes generating more private ; reforming Multilateral Development Banks () to better address ; and strengthening the ()

    Not my field at ALL, but I found this article provides a useful short introduction

    https://sustainability.freshfields.com/post/102is1l/road-to-cop28-climate-finance-unlocking-private-capital-to-beat-climate-change

    i_ngli,
    @i_ngli@assemblag.es avatar

    @pvonhellermannn don’t trust the with optimising for the environment. They can maximally be expected to optimise for selling . We have to expect, the private sector will ignore all environmental implications they can get away with, i.e. externalise as much as possible within any project.

    My @sts take on in the is @bigdatasoc at https://doi.org/10.1177/2053951716673390

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @i_ngli @sts @bigdatasoc

    Thabk you for adding this! Yes, I really don’t. Just wanted to briefly mention it as an area that will feature at COP28, but yes, little faith in this personally

    Your paper looks great! Was just teaching about the role of corporations yesterday, will read now and add to reding list for next year

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    24/n But the biggest - most important but also most difficult - task at will be to make real progress on the phasing out of . This is the crux of the matter- and so many forces stacked up against this, what with it taking place in and all!

    For the next few days, this is what I will focus on in this 🧵 - what’s at stake, but also how some parties are deliberately delaying action.

    For today, will end with this useful scorecard:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/cop28-agenda-global-warming-climate-change-paris-agreement-pledges-united-states-uae-island-nations-china-g77-european-union-sauidi-arabia-russia-india/

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    🧵 (no insider knowledge, just trying to stay informed and thought I might share a few things)

    25/n So, on phasing out of : it is obvious that a) many countries/parties are refusing to commit to the complete phasing out of fossil fuels countries, and b) there is, as always, a whole forest of terms and clauses to come to grips with, obfuscating things. You can see this from this overview of positions of by :

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/interactive-who-wants-what-at-the-cop28-climate-change-summit/

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    26/n Two somewhat confusing terms that seems to be used a lot this year are and . What does this mean?

    On the face of it, "Unabated" is when fossil fuels are burnt and the emissions end up in the air, just like that. "Abating", or reducing, those emissions would require restrictions such as technologies to capture and bury etc. However, in practice these terms are very ambiguous and unhelpful, helping parties.

    https://www.context.news/net-zero/cop28-climate-dispute-what-are-unabated-fossil-fuels

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    27/n It's worth highlighting the here, who released this statement a month ago, explaining why they want to phase out entirely, and why "abating" is misleading and NOT the way forward (we don't have the technologies yet!). There are 16 African (eg , European (eg ) and small island countries (eg and ) in this coalition:

    https://www.highambitioncoalition.org/statements/cochair-summary-april-2021-9n7c5-z7kxl-733k4-sjma4-6rx7a-72mzf

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    28/n However, many other countries, including , and oppose this and are going for "Phasing DOWN of Unabated Fossil Fuels Emissions", instead of Phasing OUT of all fossil fuel emissions. Which sounds quite similar and quite good, but actually really works to allow fossil fuels to continue as long as possible. Sultan Al Jaber, president of but also, of course, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, has this position. So not good. But:

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    29/n Don't forget that as recently as three years ago (I think), were not even mentioned in COP documents! So there is some progress, in that at least all this is being debated and talked about. may well be quite a fractious for these reasons, and chances for phasing OUT of all fossil fuels being decided on are more than slim, but at least it's on the table.

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    30/n Nevertheless, critics are definitely 100% right that and will dominate at . One reason for this alone is Al Jaber's reliance on the consultancy firm in running . McKinseys have worked for many fossil fuel companies for years, and it telling, alarming and chilling in equal measures that they are so involved

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2023/11/08/companies/mckinsey-climate-change-whistleblowers/

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    31/n by the way, when you put 'McKinsey COP28' into Google, as I just did, trying to find the critical articles exposing this a couple of weeks ago, all you get is McKinsey itself - it all looks very good, very committed, but don't be fooled! This kind of 'sustainability' is a prime example of the corporate capture of - another word, of course, that is so ambiguous that it is endlessly misused and appropriated.

    https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/how-we-help-clients/cop/overview?cid=other-pme-gaw-mst-mst-oth-2311-Awareness_EU/UK&COP28&gclid=CjwKCAiA9ourBhAVEiwA3L5RFmlAOxqLX8Z8i_qy5daWcBh1Wkr3crG-wtGs9dxXF6I-0eu_Csrk8xoCeEIQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

    mikegolf,
    @mikegolf@mastodon.online avatar

    @pvonhellermannn Ah yes, McKinsey who along with Bain & Co, KPMG and others played a huge part in State Capture here in S Africa helping the Zuma presidency and cronies steal public funds and cripple the state entities such as Tax Collection, Power Generation, Railways, Ports, in fact the whole State machinery. @breadandcircuses

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    32/n And of course the big story to add to 🧵 today is the revelation that the was/is planning to use talks to make deals with other countries. Infuriating, depressing - yes; surprising - no. Using official meetings for other, directly contradictory deals is kind of common practice. Perfect opportunity, having everyone together!

    But does this mean we should forget about and COPs in general? In my view - also no.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67508331

    gsymon,
    @gsymon@mstdn.social avatar

    @pvonhellermannn

    What it means is that we should encourage and congratulate journalists that uncover this stuff and much more importantly ... these people should be shamed. Really shamed. Also removed from the COP events.

    It should be viewed sort of like people cheating in sport, e.g. drug cheats. They should be banned.

    Yes, they'll just try to get more discreet... but as soon as you talk to someone else... it may get out that you did.

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @gsymon yes. Just listening to an excellent CSSN webinar in honour of Sale Huq, where Megan Rowling talked about how this BBC story came about, in collaboration with the Centre for Climate Reporting, and stressing how Important these collaborations are for getting these kinds of stories out

    gsymon,
    @gsymon@mstdn.social avatar

    @pvonhellermannn

    Do you have a link for the webinar Pauline? (I DuckDucked but couldn't find anything).

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @gsymon i will share the recording here when i have it! It was very good and moving

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    33/n Surely scrutiny, attention, criticism is exactly what we need more of, not less, at this moment? Saying this also in response to your reply here yesterday, @breadandcircuses (pasted in here)

    For me, engaging with the is not at all born from trust in oil barons, on the contrary. Really. It is precisely because I don’t trust them that I feel we can’t disengage or just leave them to it; we need to keep on engaging, understanding processes, keeping up pressure.

    https://climatejustice.social/@breadandcircuses/111477105941127593

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    34/n Yes, I know. is greenwashing, theatre, corrupt - all of this. But it is the only global climate forum, the only forum where small island Nations have any sort of power and audience, as Tina Stege, the for the recently reminded us (see 11/n ⬆️) and what happens there really matters! So we need to do whatever we can (v little i know) to steer things towards better outcomes, not disengage. Here another TS interview, v powerful too

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QN3qF-jg1ko

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    35/n Another lovely term to look out for at is the “Oil Demand Sustainability Programme" or - essentially a plan to drive UP the use of in , as rich countries increasingly switch to clean energy. Thank you @ariadne
    for drawing our attention to this! As Ariadne says, it is just like what was done with - now that smoking is curtailed in Global North, Indonesia is the smoking capital of the world; that’s the market now.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/27/revealed-saudi-arabia-plan-poor-countries-oil

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    36/n I am thinking again now of my recent visit to #Dodoma (yes, HUGE flying guilt, see many posts about this), the new, rapidly expanding capital of #Tanzania. Everywhere you looked, new petrol stations were being built. You can’t and shouldn’t blame African countries entering these development paths, but there are many discussions about this within #Africa.

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    37/n One idea (another addition to this of sorts) discussed for the last couple of years in this context is that might in its - ie, that it doesn't have to go through the stage but can skip it and go straight to clean energy and renewables. One useful summary of this is provided here by Wartsila (a renewable energy company) but there are many critics. Obviously some real issues here.

    https://www.wartsila.com/energy/towards-100-renewable-energy/pathways-for-africas-energy-future

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    38/n 🧵 An important addition/corrective to post 35 ⬆️ on above, especially as that got quite a lot of traction. Thank you to @WahbAllat for providing this - it’s really important to not go down the “those bad Saudis” route. In fact, the remains the world’s leading oil and gas behemoth and continues to grow, with a record 12.9m barrels of crude oil, more than double what was produced a decade ago, forecast to be extracted in 2023.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/27/us-oil-gas-record-fossil-fuels-cop28-united-nations

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    39/n Here also a brillant sum-up by Timmons Roberts (CSSN) of what we - those of us who desperately want to deliver real, much needed - are always up against in the lobby:

    “a highly sophisticated, well-funded network of people who are used to winning, and to winning big” .

    Btw (Climate Social Science Network), set up by Timmons, does really great, incisive work on and - do check it out

    https://cssn.org/

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    40/n Final addition today: everyone please read and share this beautiful, heartbreaking post by @bwinbwin
    about the . It was written in response to a few posts (11 and 34 ⬆️) about the wonderful Tina Stegen, climate envoy of the Marshall Islands- do watch the videos, too, she speaks so powerfully. We should all try and approach as Marshall Islanders, and with “Mantin Majel” wisdom ❤️:

    https://kolektiva.social/@bwinbwin/111488487317019946

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    41/n 🧵 Well today Al Jaber announced that 1.5°C and an “unprecedented outcome” are within reach. Wouldn’t it be amazing if he - CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company - actually delivered this? In Dubai?

    I would love it to happen. Not just because this would obviously be brilliant for everyone on this planet, but also just as a story! So go for it!

    And yes: I KNOW. McKinsey will not take us to under 1.5, that’s for sure.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/29/deal-to-keep-15c-hopes-alive-is-within-reach-says-cop28-president?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    42/n This piece by Emily Atkin says exactly what i have been trying to express in this thread:

    “The fossil fuel interests attempting to corrupt COP28 would love nothing more than for us to look away. So we will continue to pay attention, not in spite of the bullshit, but because of it.”

    https://open.substack.com/pub/heated/p/cop28-sucks-pay-attention-anyway?r=4ug8&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    43/n It’s 30th November! First day of !

    By lucky timetabling coincidence it so happens that I am talking about the COP process in my Environment Module today … last minute lecture preparation on the train as always

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    44/n very happy to see @guardian doing Live Coverage of . Good investigative journalism and media scrutiny is so extremely crucial in holding leaders to account and trying to ensure better climate policies. I have had some misgivings about Guardian over the years but its Environmental Journalism is outstanding (Harvey, Carrington etc) - really recognising the role it can play

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2023/nov/30/cop28-dubai-uae-climate-crisis-lateest-news-updates?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    45/n Apologies, these past few days life and work escalated all at once; no time to read much beyond headlines about . And so much good coverage and (scathing) commentary everywhere I haven’t felt the inclination to “add my mustard”, as they say in Germany 😊. Including Guardian (⬆️), CarbonBrief of course; and on here @takvera and @Bentley
    are doing great 🧵s.

    So adding just a few (bit random) things here: this Bill McKibben post on

    https://open.substack.com/pub/billmckibben/p/unabated?r=4ug8&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    46/n and this important reminder of the role of . Whilst there are some great new collaborations btw mainstream and smaller, dedicated research outlets (see post 32 of this thread ⬆️ - result of BBC/Institute of climate research collaboration), so much of media also effectively enables the fossil fuel industry (as well as the establishment and business as usual in general). It’s another key battleground

    https://www.desmog.com/2023/12/05/reuters-new-york-times-top-list-of-fossil-fuel-industrys-media-enablers/

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    47/n A new report on is a timely reminder - not that anyone here needs it - why really does matter. Even while there are many uncertainties surely the should be applied more than ever.

    Also useful warning about being overly optimistic about . We can’t rely on those alone; policy, regulation, incentives matter.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    48/n Ok I know it's a no-no, but I just came across this X thread by Romaine Ioualalen summing up yesterday's discussion and it is honestly so good that I just have to share it here. Read and enjoy (and then close X again of course). What each country said, in plain words.

    https://x.com/Rlalen/status/1733170398231990292?s=20

    markhburton,
    @markhburton@mstdn.social avatar
    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @markhburton ah, thank you! haven't come to grips with Nitter yet at all, need to check it out

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar


    49/n 🧵
    Well of course this was to be expected, but still a blow to read.😓

    COP28’draft agreement omits references to phaseout of fossil fuels

    https://on.ft.com/3t98DQz

    (I am aware this is subcription only. Sorry. But the text here is the whole piece)

    yetiinabox,
    @yetiinabox@todon.nl avatar

    @pvonhellermannn

    I do hope there is the political will to do better than this. A walkout without agreement would be more valuable at this point than agreeing a petrostate-approved text.

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    50/n A moment of our times: 12 year old climate activist Licypriya Kangujam storms plenary session stage demanding to END fossil fuels. Audience claps, President claps, encourages more applause, then everything continues as before.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/end-fossil-fuels-protester-storms-stage-cop28-summit-2023-12-11/

    realdanny,

    @pvonhellermannn Climate theater at its finest: a round of applause for the dramatics, then it's back to business as usual.

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    51/n I mean, it IS progress that the overton window is now vs . Considering that 3 years ago fossil fuels were still not even mentioned. Now at least this is what is being talked about. BUT: we just have so little time; we really do need immediate commitment to , not the longest possible, most watered down version now being agreed (and then pledges not even being met, of course). It remains the case that many key world leaders still do not REALLY

    markhburton,
    @markhburton@mstdn.social avatar

    @pvonhellermannn
    This piece isn't bad (once you get past the egoist title), noting that it isn't as simple a matter as phasing out fossil fuels. I.e. it's the whole economic model.
    https://ageoftransformation.org/i-warned-leaders-at-cop28-that-the-age-of-oil-is-over/
    "Fossil fuel production keeps growing, and investments keep expanding, not simply because fossil fuel producers are nefarious and oppressive, but fundamentally because of rising global economic demand."
    Degrowing the G20 economies is critical for planetary salvation.

    markhburton,
    @markhburton@mstdn.social avatar

    @pvonhellermannn And for some caution on the "just switch to renewables" line, there's this ICYMI.
    https://degrowthuk.org/2023/08/11/ecological-transitions-and-energy-transitions/

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    52/n take climate change seriously. Mostly of course this is because they are in the pockets of the fossil fuel industry or themselves petrostates (only 30% of fossil fuel companies are private corporations); it is geopolitics, money, power, interests that cause . But in addition to that, I do think that the fact that political and corporate leaders are, by definition, part of an extremely privileged and well-off class, also means that they personally do not really care

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    53/n Not just because they know or think that they will be able to look after themselves (whxih they may or may not be right about), but also because their whole experience of the world is so orderly, so ok, that real catastrophe is just not part of their repertoire of thinking. They really think things will not be so bad.

    It is a Tragedy of the NON-commons that it is these people who are in charge. Resharing this piece, which I published last year, during ).

    https://medium.com/@p.vonhellermann/the-tragedy-of-the-non-commons-4bfad884cdbe

    urlyman,
    @urlyman@mastodon.social avatar

    @pvonhellermannn really good framing 🙏

    Could a status-seeking primate discovering an energy jackpot cooked to perfection over the course of 200 times the existence of their own species have turned out any other way? 🤔

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @urlyman Now that’s a brilliant framing in one question! Probably not, sadly.

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    54/n 🧵. Vanessa Nakate brilliantly summarising what it’s all about. She starts with describing meeting 6 year old Turkana boy Desmond, who died hours later from malnutrition (rains failed 6 times in a row in northern Kenya):

    “I want the negotiators deciding the outcome of Cop28 to know Desmond’s story. Because in the end, the climate crisis is not about pledges, statistics, reports or activists. It’s about human suffering and ruined lives. It’s about death.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/12/cop-28-humanity-leaders-activists-dubai-fossil-fuel-phase-out-adaptation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    55/n 🧵 well now we have it: the Landmark Deal. The Schrödinger Cat of landmark deals: it both is and isn’t one! Yes, there is an agreement to “transition away”. Which is not nothing. But it is not at all, at all enough; the weakest, possible version you can imagine.

    I just hope it’s enough of a wedge to make substantial further progress on at and . Clutching straws, I know, but you have to make the most of what you have

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2023/dec/13/cop28-live-updates-news-agreement-outcomes-draft-text-fossil-fuels?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    priscillaharing,
    @priscillaharing@mastodon.green avatar

    @pvonhellermannn i hope so too

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    56/n 🧵. It appears Sultan Al Jaber announced the Deal without overall consensus: that he did this whilst small island nation leaders (for whom this is NOT a good deal) were out of the room. Apparently this js quite common practicr at Cops. Very interesting to follow the Guardian live thread this morning

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    57/n 🧵 musing Steve Lukes’ three dimensions of power in this context ⬆️. These three dimensions are:

    1. Who is at the table and makes decisions,
    2. Who sets the agenda.
    3. Who shapes the minds and values of those at table.

    For Lukes (& all in Marxist tradition) the third is the most important. But the COP process kind of turns this around: real power is making decisions when half the members are out of the room! (Not entirely serious musings. And haven’t yet read latest developments)

    pvonhellermannn, (edited )
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    58/n 🧵 this picture of Tina Stege, the climate envoy of the Marshall Islands, distraught after the announcement of the deal, perfectly expresses todqy and COP28 as a whole 😓😓😓 - hope it’s ok to share it here @StefanBlasel

    https://machteburch.social/@StefanBlasel/111573802589294918

    Tina Stege is a really great person (see also 11,34 and 40 in this 🧵); what is being done to her, the Marshall Islands and all small island nations is just terrible

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar
    stofferoo,

    @pvonhellermannn “With every vague verb, every empty promise in the final text, millions more people will enter the frontline of climate change and many will die.”

    I somehow feel people who were there just forgot about this part.

    WahbAllat,
    WahbAllat,

    @pvonhellermannn @ariadne

    It is not just Saudi Arabia, in fact, Saudi Arabia is not in the top 5 countries expanding oil and gas production

    Europeans should stop attacking developing countries for developing

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @WahbAllat @ariadne agree with this point and apologies - was just repeating what it said in the article and will delete Saudi Arabia from my summary text, to make this a more universal point

    WahbAllat,

    @pvonhellermannn @ariadne

    The US is the biggest fish, as evident from the graph I just shared. It is the largest producer of oil with the largest planned production expansion.

    "US oil and gas production set to break record in 2023 despite UN climate goals"
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/27/us-oil-gas-record-fossil-fuels-cop28-united-nations

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @WahbAllat @ariadne thank you, will add this to my thread!

    WahbAllat,

    @pvonhellermannn @ariadne

    Also a reminder that the US government has always threatened Saudi Arabia whenever it cut production.

    "Biden vowed 'consequences' for Saudi Arabia after oil production cut. But the U.S. has no plans to follow through."
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/biden-vowed-consequences-saudi-arabia-oil-production-cut-us-no-plans-f-rcna59799

    hopefulhumanizer,

    @WahbAllat @pvonhellermannn @ariadne The sad truth is that US voters will be most influenced by their "pain-at-the-pump" as they drive to the polls. Of course the oil and gas lobby has a huge influence as well. The feedback loop of climate disasters, loss of homes, skyrocketing insurance is just too slow to influence them.

    WahbAllat,

    @hopefulhumanizer @pvonhellermannn @ariadne

    The US government doesn't care about its people, it doesn't even give them a free ambulance. But at least it can stop the hypocrisy and stop preaching.

    Let the rest of the world develop on their own terms.

    Why are developing countries being demonized when it is the biggest polluters that should be reducing their impact?

    Saudi Arabia is at least investing in mass transit and alternative energies.

    jackofalltrades,
    @jackofalltrades@mas.to avatar

    @WahbAllat @hopefulhumanizer @pvonhellermannn @ariadne

    Is it demonizing though? US government may not care about its people, but neither does a literal king that orders assassination of his critics.

    US puts pressure on Saudis because the US is the second biggest importer of oil in the world, and it also is Saudi's security guarantor.

    Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is the biggest exporter of oil in the world, exporting twice as much oil as the US. Of course it wants more clients for its products.

    jackofalltrades,
    @jackofalltrades@mas.to avatar

    @WahbAllat @hopefulhumanizer @pvonhellermannn @ariadne

    We are all ordinary citizens here, and we can criticize whoever the hell we want, especially politicians, billionaires and kings. Criticizing the Saudi government does not mean criticizing Saudi citizens.

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @jackofalltrades @WahbAllat @hopefulhumanizer @ariadne

    That is true. That is why I haven’t removed the post. But i did notice that a lot of people really went with that one, so just wanted to add this too. And language iis something to be aware of, what kind of language you use in your criticism of different countries. One or two comments (not here) do sound pretty, well, anti-Arab. However, don’t particularly want to take sides and is never helpful.

    grb090423,
    @grb090423@mastodon.social avatar

    deleted_by_author

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  • pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @grb090423 well the lack of overall obligation was how Paris finally managed to break deadlock of all many years of COPs before, so it was probably good then, but yes, now would be a good time to revisit that.. but not on the cards

    urlyman,
    @urlyman@mastodon.social avatar

    @pvonhellermannn thanks for this thread, Pauline. Glad to have discovered it.

    Re toot #9 in particular, and David Cameron’s appointment today, have you seen https://www.planetcritical.com/p/everybody-wants-gazas-gas by @PlanetCritical?

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @urlyman @PlanetCritical ah - thank you for sharing this here. I had vaguely seen it in passing but not actually read yet. Thank you!

    MHowell,
    messaroundmarx,
    @messaroundmarx@zirk.us avatar

    @pvonhellermannn
    so much intelligence and research wasted for nothing?
    To expect, after 27 COPs with no results except millions of printed paper pages, that , which is chaired by the chief of the world's biggest oil company, will be of crucial importance, imo, is denial of reality. Not to realize that COPs are DESIGNED to be cardboard dummies in order to preserve the status quo of generating profits out of fossil energy as well as green-washed is no longer explainable to me.😕

    pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @messaroundmarx I know. You are of course not the first to comment here in this way, nor will you be the last. I am super-familiar with this take. But for now i believe it is helpful for at least some of us to engage and know what’s going on than everyone to zone out and be disillusioned.

    Teop_Versant,
    @Teop_Versant@mastodon.social avatar

    @pvonhellermannn @kathhayhoe Self-determination is actually tangible. Hope is faith. Desperate determination is not useful.

    NatureMC,
    @NatureMC@mastodon.online avatar

    deleted_by_author

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  • NatureMC,
    @NatureMC@mastodon.online avatar

    deleted_by_author

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  • pvonhellermannn,
    @pvonhellermannn@mastodon.green avatar

    @NatureMC thank you Petra! I do find myself interested in both - weaving the , but also to keep on trying to change larger powers and systems. You are someone who is brilliant at the former; all the greater that you are also interested in both!

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