MarcinW,

We are 1 month 3 weeks into #Ukraine #Counteroffensive.

Thus far there wasn't a single location where Ukrainians would break through the first line of Russian reinforced emplacements.

In fact: There isn't a place where #Russia was even forced to fight for their first line. Fights are only going on the front lines which are getting pushed back and forth.

Bakhmut - still strong in RU hands.
Avdiivka - looks worse than before the c.off.
Wagner gone, but no breakthrough.

It ain't looking good...

MarcinW, (edited )

A welcome surprise! #Ukraine reached the first line of Russian defences near #Robotyne and #Verbive. #Counteroffensive.

(Video made by Russians shows Ukrainians probing defences and possible minefield with a remotely controlled armored vehicle)

https://deepstatemap.live/en?#13/47.4477/35.9308

MarcinW,

Geolocated, for posterity

MarcinW,

#Russia's soldiers report that today Ukrainians started using US-provided #ClusterMunitions. And not just for few individual strikes, but rather en-masse, combined with the strikes from HIMARS against more heavily armoured assets.

#Counteroffensive approached #Robotyne from the East, but RU destroyed several armoured vehicles stopping offensive.

Today afternoon UA also captured ruins of #Staromaiorske (confirmed by both: RU and UA sources), but without much hard cover left after arty strikes.

MarcinW, (edited )

#Ukraine #Counteroffensive 2023-07-28

  1. Ukraine made a few long-range attacks with either S-200 or S-300 converted for ground-attack. At least 2 strikes on #Taganrog, one shot-down, one hitting target at 19:03 local time. Another strike on Azovsky District.
  2. Significant UA losses near #Robotyne, push seems to be stopped.
  3. #Staromaiorske (capped yesterday) is being reinforced.
  4. Slow progress in #Klishchiivka (south of #Bakhmut) - RU turn village into rubble, but still hold the North part
MarcinW,

#Ukraine #Counteroffensive 2023-07-29

  1. UA makes another push on #Klishchiivka (pre-war population: 512) taking over most of the village by the night of 29/30 July. Heavy losses on both sides.
  2. UA made an unsuccessful push for #Robotyne, but still holds arty. advantage, area ~7km wide east of village is no man's land.
  3. #Russia counterattacked near #Staromaiorske - regained some of the territory lost over the previous 2 days (unknown how much). #Staromaiorske itself remains in UA hands.
MarcinW,

For some added context - here's a map of the region near #Robotyne with the population (blue) of the key villages on the way to #Tokmak, Russian defensive lines (black), the outline of three key villages (thin red) and locations of a known UA strikes 💥.

While fighting for Robotyne is fierce it's likely to be nothing compared to #SolodkaBalka - #Verbove line. But even before reaching it expect heavy battle in #Novoprokopivka. Long way to go for #Ukraine #Counteroffensive before #Tokmak.

MarcinW, (edited )

#Ukraine #Counteroffensive 2023-07-30 - 2023-08-03

  1. #Klishchiivka reported to be captured by UA, though situation around the village remains uncertain.
  2. #Robotyne was mostly calm until today's UA push today, but reportedly it didn't achieve any success.
  3. RU made offensive in North, near #Kupyansk - captured some area, but a lot of fog of war.
  4. Image 1 - #Kakhovka Reservoir from UA side. Still unsuitable for offensive.
  5. Image 2 - Polish KTO #Rosomak seen for the first time in Ukraine
MarcinW,

#Ukraine #Counteroffensive 2023-08-04

  1. Ukraine made a breakthrough from #Klishchiivka, pushing RU behind railway line going South from #Bakhmut. Similar push was attempted North from the city, but without success.
  2. UA hit Ropucha-class landing ship #OlenegorskyGornyak in a port of #Novorossiysk (Krasnodar Krai) with a naval drone (widely publicised news)
  3. Around an hour ago UA made another strike on #Kerch bridge, alarms and gunshots heard. Results unknown.

An image from recorded video of an Ukrainian drone approaching Ropucha-class landing ship.
Damaged Ropucha-class pulled by a tug

MarcinW,
  1. UA made another near #Robotyne, this time directing the attack towards #Verbove. Today marks the first time I see RU source openly speak that UA is expected to break through the frontline and into #Novoprokopivka bypassing Robotyne itself. RU's 116th Motorized Rifle Brigade is mostly killed off with remains surrendering to Ukraine
  2. RU reported multiple aerial drone attacks on Crimea, claim all were destroyed
MarcinW,

@ 3. latest report from Crimean authorities: "After the explosion, a fire started in the area of ​​the Crimean bridge" (expect more in the news reports tomorrow during the day).

#Kerch #KerchBridge

MarcinW, (edited )

Ukraine released video of the night attack - it was against oil tanker "Sig" (cyrillic "Сіг") passing through the #Kerch straight.

UA sources claim "if they won't let us export our grain, we won't let them export their oil"

No reports of oil spill yet.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:347638/mmsi:273340190/imo:9735335/vessel:SIG

#KerchBridge

MarcinW,
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