Hisbollah-Chef spricht von "Wendepunkt" - und droht
Nach dem Angriff auf das iranische Botschaftsgelände hat Hisbollah-Chef Nasrallah Israel gedroht. Es sprach von einem "Wendepunkt" - auf den eine Antwort folge. Die Hisbollah sei auf jeglichen Krieg "bestens vorbereitet".
« Alors que #SalehAlArouri, haut responsable du #Hamas, a été tué mardi 2 janvier 2024, dans une frappe à #Beyrouth, Le chef du #Hezbollah libanais - Hassan #Nasrallah - a renouvelé ses menaces contre l'État hébreu dans deux discours en moins de 48 heures. Faut-il craindre une extension du conflit ? »
the IDF is cautiously optimistic about Hezbollah’s partial withdrawals but does not feel that it can declare victory until withdrawals to more militarily relevant lines are made and attacks stop.
#translation#analysis Dr. Gruzberg is a clinical psychologist and researcher of cultures, who worked at the Intelligence Division of Aman (Military Intelligence Directorate). In this opinion column in Haaretz (Hebrew only) he is trying to analyze the failure of the Israeli concept in respect to the Hamas (would never attack, too weak, too dependent on Qatari money funneled through Israel.)
[...] From August 2021 to January 2022 I worked as a psychologist in the Intelligence Division of Aman (Military Intelligence Directorate). By profession, I am a clinical psychologist and researcher in the field of cross-cultural psychology. I was invited to work in Intelligence because of their sense that I present a perspective different from what they are familiar with. I was the only psychologist in the system, and to the best of my knowledge, psychologists have not survived there for long periods.
[...] The structure of Aman, like the whole army, is hierarchical in a way that restricts open, critical and creative thinking. Commanders want to advance up the pyramid, which becomes narrower and narrower, and therefore do not allow themselves to freely express their opinions. These things are especially important in intelligence, which is supposed to be the thinking brain of the army and state.
[...] The need for psychological oversight within the Research Division is clear: First, to help division members speak freely and openly, and protect them from limiting, castrating authority. An experienced psychologist sitting in such meetings can definitely promote this goal.
[...] Yahya #Sinwar's case can demonstrate the importance of the clinical psychologist in another aspect. During my work, I met with most of the Research Division's senior staff. Some are people who closely follow Sinwar's conduct and have known him for years. On the walls of some of their offices is a large picture of him. Clearly, such a close connection develops emotions towards the research subject. I encouraged them to express their feelings about him. Some said they greatly appreciate him, one pitied him and described him as a man in constant panic. Another said he sees him as a figure of a warm father, while another said he feels pure hatred towards him.
[...] Each of this senior staff recommended the system act differently towards Sinwar. The recommendations were rationally justified, but it was clear they depend on the emotional attitude of each recommender: those who appreciated him or saw him as a father figure were less inclined to harm him, whereas the one who felt hatred complained that he doesn't understand why the bosses think nothing can be done against him. "What do they think, that he’s God?!" he protested, arguing that Sinwar should be eliminated. In other words, the senior staff were in fact exercising rationalization - a defense mechanism meant to justify emotional positions – and not rational thinking as they surely believed. A clinical psychologist can point out such biases.
[...] When I started work, I was asked to read a thick volume on the perception of intelligence and how it works. As a clinical psychologist, I was horrified by the cognitive agenda's domination of the enemy's mind. #Nasrallah for example was described as thinking according to a flow chart (yes or no choice nodes) suitable for computer work. I asked whether Nasrallah really thinks that way, eliciting a smile and agreement that he does not think that way. Where is the emotional world guiding us all? Where are the defenses, the well known Arab honor, the sophisticated lies that fool us for years, the aspirations to destroy us? There is no doubt that these talented young men do wonderful cognitive work with efficient technology, but both due to their age and analytical tendency they sorely lack the emotional aspect - both towards themselves and the enemy – leaving us exposed.
#CAIRO — After a long journey from #Gaza, more than 100 American citizens and their families have entered #Egypt through the #RafahCrossing. Jonathan Webster, the #USEmbassy in Cairo's consul general, said some of those families are telling him they ran out of food and water during their journeys. #Israel
In a second nationally televised address within three days, #Nasrallah said that all of #Lebanon would be “exposed” if there was no response from his group to the killing of #SalehAlArouri, further heightening fears of a dangerous escalation in the conflict, even as #Israel warned its military was ready for any eventuality. #Hezbollah
#Israel-#Hamas conflict is escalating and spilling into #Syria. They are not just Israeli strikes but also #Turkish.
And Türkiye isn't doing it just for giggles but in response to an attack on government facilities in Ankara. Terrorists backed by Syria & #Iran want to expand the conflict using Syrian territory.
There'll be more bloodshed, but as horrible as that sounds, US should stay out militarily until after #Election2024
2nd front: Nasrallah praised Hamas attacks and said Hezbollah "already entered the battle" the day after, but denied that Hezbollah had any part in the planning of Hamas attacks
#USA has warned both Hezbollah and #Iran to stay away from the conflict, but Hezbollah remains defiant
v Reuters - quotes from the speech of Israel PM Netanyahu :
ONGOING GROUND OPERATION IN #GAZA IS THE SECOND STAGE OF THE #WAR
WE WILL EXERT EVERY EFFORT TO RETURN #HOSTAGES
THOSE ACCUSING US OF WAR CRIMES ARE HYPOCRITS
THE WAR INSIDE THE GAZA STRIP WILL BE DIFFICULT AND LONG
CAN'T SAY #IRAN WAS INVOLVED IN PLANNING OF OCT. 7 ATTACK BUT THEY FUND #HAMAS
Meanwhile #Israel's defence minister, Yoav Gallant, has said Israel will sever all ties with the #Gaza Strip once its war with #Hamas is over -- it would, as he put it, end its "responsibility" for life there.
The #Hamas authorities say #Israeli attacks have now killed more than 4100 people.
Over 1400 Israelis were killed in Hamas' unprecedented extremist attacks within Israel earlier this month
V #BBC Jeremy Bowen:
'In the last 24 hours, a photograph has emerged of the leaders of #Hamas and Islamic Jihad #PIJ in Lebanon, where they were meeting Hassan #Nasrallah, the leader of the Shia Muslim militia and political movement #Hezbollah.
It’s the most powerful body in #Lebanon, more powerful than the Lebanese state, and its military wing is backed, trained and armed by #Iran.
The Iranians see Hezbollah as a vital part of their strategy of forward defence in the region. (Cont.)
Military officials worry Nasrallah recognizes Israeli weakness amid judicial legislation protests and may test the military's patience despite the risk of all-out conflict
Is Israel progressing with Hezbollah or is group's retreat temporary? - Analysis (jpost.com)
the IDF is cautiously optimistic about Hezbollah’s partial withdrawals but does not feel that it can declare victory until withdrawals to more militarily relevant lines are made and attacks stop.
Probability of war in north highest since 2006, IDF says (www.ynetnews.com)
Military officials worry Nasrallah recognizes Israeli weakness amid judicial legislation protests and may test the military's patience despite the risk of all-out conflict