ablueview, 25 days ago

🧵2/5 Along every dimension except polls, Biden is blowing Trump away: party support, special elections, fundraising, campaign infrastructure, being on the right side of abortion, etc

Polls are the only thing that makes Trump appear viable but they're structurally inaccurate.

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ablueview, 25 days ago

🧵3/5 Presidential polls are inaccurate because:

Knowing Haley was out of the race, 14.9% still voted for her in a dozen states: GA, KS, AZ, OH, IL, FL, WI, CT, RI, NY, PA & IN.

These 925K Republicans voted clearly against Trump but will they vote Trump, Biden, or stay home?

ablueview, 25 days ago

🧵4/5 Most of these Republicans themselves don't yet know how they'll vote & if voters don't know how they'll vote, it's IMPOSSIBLE for anyone else, particularly pollsters, to know what they'll do come Nov.

Which means pollsters cannot model how 15% of Republicans will vote!

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ablueview, 25 days ago

🧵5/5 And without accurate models of a Presidential electorate, Presidential polls can't predict anything & should be ignored.

And they certainly should not be used to negate all of the other very positive signs pointing to a big Biden / Democratic win.

Please share this widely

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