Zeihan seems convinced Trump will lose but man, I don’t think it’s gonna be that simple. If more Americans were aware that Trump has no way of transporting us back to 2019 when inflation was low and wars were not as rampant, it would be a no-brainer. But many voters are terribly ignorant.
If he does lose, it’s gonna be quite interesting seeing how the GOP rebuilds itself. DeSantis was the obvious successor in November 2022, but I don’t see that anymore. The GOP at-large has no appetite for someone resembling Romney or McCain, so no Haley or Burgum in 2024.
Assuming he loses and we’re looking at 2028, I could see one of Trump’s large adult sons running. I could also see someone like MTG making a run for it. As long as the GOP at-large embraces MAGA mentality, they will only get joke candidates, and none of them will come close to winning a general election.
It's been a long time since we've had a major redrawning of parties in the US - remember the Whig party? Heck, Dems and Repubs were once a single party - the Democratic Republicans.
I wonder if a loss would mean the effective end of the GOP, but perhaps a split in the Dems as more liberal (e.g. Basic Income supporters) break off from some more conservative Dems, leading to a new two party system..
Oh yeah for sure, I could see the GOP being saved by moderate liberals if the Democratic Party becomes the home of democratic socialism, but for that to happen the GOP would have to lose its socially conservative identity
If nothing else, it is difficult to imagine another Republican politician who would have inspired the same cult of personality as the one that has enveloped Trump during his years on the national stage. It’s no accident that to ensure loyalty or force compliance, followers of the former president have resorted to intimidation and death threats.
[…]
If the character of a political movement is forged through contingency — the circumstances of its birth, the context of its growth, the personalities of its leadership — then it matters who sits at the top.
The point, then, is that it would be better to face the challenges to American democracy without a constitutional arsonist at the helm of one of our two major political parties. […]
[…] The only way to move past Trump will be, once again, to beat him at the ballot box.
Basically, everything Trump represents was already present within the republican party. What makes Trump dangerous is that he is charismatic enough to cultivate a cult of personality as well as narcissistic and psychopathic (and perhaps sociopathic?) enough to go to extreme lengths to maintain power.
Getting rid of Trump will not stop the movement he created, but I think it would send MAGA back to infighting (not unlike what we see with the republicans in congress.)
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