The global risks due to misinformation and disinformation may be more than that posed by climate-related risks such as the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem collapse.
On 10th January 2024, Global Risks Report 2024 was published. While climate-related hazards remain a prevalent topic, the report identifies misinformation and disinformation as the most serious short-term threat.
According to the report
"foreign and domestic actors alike will leverage misinformation and disinformation to widen societal and political divides" during the next two years. This risk is heightened by a huge number of upcoming elections, with more than 3 billion people expected to vote in 2024 and 2025, including in major economies such as the United States, India, and the United Kingdom. The proliferation of mis- and disinformation around the world may cause civil upheaval, but it may also lead to government-led censorship, internal propaganda, and restrictions on the free flow of information.
Though the climate-related risks represent 5 of the top 10 threats during a 10-year period as the world approaches or crosses "climate tipping points", I believe misinformation and disinformation will continue to be ranked among top three risks much beyond the next two years. There is apparently no short term contingency plans and long term mitigation plans apart from effective role of independent fact-checking organizations. I do not know how these fact-checking organizations can deal with the assault of bad actors using Generative AI (including deepfakes) that will dominantly contribute to misinformation and disinformation by flooding the global information systems with false narratives in future. Misinformation and disinformation will also aggravate climate related risks. According to a research done by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, we have "reached the tipping point where humans are unable to meaningfully differentiate between AI-generated versus human-created digital content." I am convinced that Zero Trust Information is the right paradigm in this age of ChatGPT, Google Bard and Bing chatbot for regular end users.
Journalist Harini Calamur's article titled "Analysis: The Unbearable Risk of Misinformation" is worth reading. She expresses her deep concerns regarding misinformation and highlights the following.> The rise of misinformation and disinformation as a primary global risk underscores the danger it poses to individuals, societies, and economies. It needs to be addressed with the seriousness it deserves.
The fact that misinformation and propaganda existed even in the Roman Empire and prior to the battle of Actium during 31 BC between Octavian and Mark Antony, shows that the perils of misinformation and disinformation are here to stay with us for ever. Disinformation is a subset of misinformation that is spread intentionally.
The paper titled "The psychological drivers of misinformation belief and its resistance to correction" discusses in great detail regarding why people share misinformation, barriers to belief revision, information to combat misinformation and related practical implications for practitioners, information consumers and policymakers. There is no such thing as a one-size-fits-all answer. In addition to regulations without curbing freedom of speech (which does not include amplification of that speech), the authors suggest that the most important approach to slowing the spread of misinformation is substantial investment in education, particularly to build information literacy skills in schools and beyond.
Overall, solutions to misinformation spread must be multi-pronged and target both the supply (for example, more efficient fact-checking and changes to platform algorithms and policies) and the consumption (for example, accuracy nudges and enhanced media literacy) of misinformation. Non-text-based corrections, such as videos or cartoons, also deserve more exploration. Additional transnational research is needed to explore questions about causality, including the causal impacts of misinformation and corrections on beliefs and behaviors.
Crowdfunded news portals, which are based on donation from individuals while maintaining high stands of accountability and transparency, are a relatively new phenomenon in the media landscape. These new generation news portals have several potential advantages like financial independence, public engagement and diverse content and content creation outside of mainstream media scope.