beadsland,

NCHS estimates of —based on Household Pulse Survey—provide for volatile projections.

Census Bureau released most recent data last Wed—next update anticipated in Sept.

As more and more folk experience Long Covid, fewer and fewer staff our hospitals.

This is first toot of a weekly thread, updated daily, providing various dataviz of ongoing [.]

Last week: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/110889655089476285

beadsland,

Capacity Level has been elevated since independence from the virus was declared two summers ago—as fewer and fewer professionals are available to staff hospital beds.

Critical Staffing Level, already at 2021 levels, has been creeping upward—with over one in nine reporting hospitals at critical shortage.

❖

beadsland,

Pediatric staffing never recovered to pre-omicron levels. Rather, one in five pediatric beds reported May of 2022: now missing.

PICU Capacity Level (not shown): 65%.

Weekly average ~80 PICU beds were covid patients.

We're failing our kids. The emergency is over.

❖

beadsland,

Some 233 (+12) counties have pediatric care near or over capacity (≥ 90%).

Of 263 (-4) counties reporting any PICU capacity, over one in seven are near or over full.

So many places where there ain't enough staff for sick or injured kids to receive required care.

❖

beadsland,

Counties by pediatric capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Coconino, AZ ≥150%
⒉ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒊ San Juan, UT ≥133⅓%

Idaho—140%

⒋ Dona Ana, NM—114%
⒌ Fairfax, VA—106%

⒍ Potter, TX—100%
⒎ Cleveland, OK—100%
⒏ Bonneville, ID—100%
⒐ Anoka, MN—100%
⒑ Onslow, NC—100%

❖

beadsland,

Some 42 (-3) counties ≥ 100% capacity per HHS data.

Reporting ≥ 90%: 183 (+7)—over 7½% of those with any capacity. This includes surge and overflow beds: near full can mean E/Rs with day-long wait times.

For counties w/ ICUs—near one in six are full or near full.

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #hospitals #LongCovid #CovidIsNotOver #nurses #MassDisablingEvent #CovidIsAirborne #BringBackMasks #dataviz #datavis

beadsland,

Counties by adult hospital capacity (darkest counties on map above):

⒈ Seminole, GA ≥150%
⒉ Marshall, KY ≥150%
⒊ Wise, VA ≥150%

⒋ Barton, KS—148%
⒌ Warren, NY—126%

⒍ Yuma, AZ—110%
⒎ Buchanan, MO—107%
⒏ Angelina, TX—107%

⒐ Kenton, KY—103%
⒑ Boone, KY—102%

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #hospitals #LongCovid #CovidIsNotOver #nurses #MassDisablingEvent #CovidIsAirborne #BringBackMasks

beadsland,

Sixteenth week of post-Kraken soup: over one in four GISAID sequences are still Kraken XBB.1.5 fam and piddling variants.

Hyperion-sib XBB.1.9.2/EG now at one in five, with Hyperion 1.9.2/FL up to one in eight.

Arcturus XBB.1.16 family down to one in four. Acrux 2.3 still holding at one in ten.

[Srcs: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard]

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #CDC #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #WearAMask #BetterMasks

CDC's Variant Nowcast showing weighted estimated distribution of variants over fortnights ending 5/13/23 thru 7/22/23, with model-projected estimates for following two fortnights. Proportional stacked bar chart, where each color represents a different variant, inclusive of those descendants not otherwise broken out. Kraken XBB.1.5 (indigo) was dominant through May. Now crowded out by EG.5 (peach, incl. Eris EG.5.1), Fornax FL.1.5.1 (moss), Arcturus XBB.1.16 (blueberry), Acrux XBB.2.3 (cotton candy), Arcturs dot6 XBB.1.16.6 (clover), dot1 XBB.1.16.1 (salmon). Meanwhile Arcturus dot11 (muted pink), and EG.6.1 (silk) gaining share steadily. XBB.1.5 estimated at 8.6% and 4.7% vs. 16.9% fortnight of 7/22, for average -40% weekly drop in estimated share. FL.1.5.1 estimated at 7.1% & 13.3% vs. 4.1%, for avg +125% gain in est. share. EG.5 at 16.1% & 20.6% vs. 12.5%, for avg +38% gain in est. share. EG.6.1 at 2.0% & 2.3% vs. 1.7%, for avg. +34% gain in share. XBB.1.16 at 13.3% & 10.7% vs. 15.1%, for avg -10% loss in share. XBB.1.16.1 at 7.1% & 5.9% vs. 6.7%, for avg -6% loss in share. XBB.1.16.6 at 6.6% & 8.0% vs. 3.9%, for avg +26% gain in share. XBB.1.16.11 at 1.7% & 1.9% vs. 1.4%, for avg. +44% gain in share. XBB.2.3 at 11.1% & 10.6% vs. 10.0%, for avg +5% in plateaued share. ALT-text by beadsland on Ko-fi.

beadsland,

CDC gave up 3 weeks ago on estimating proportions in seven of ten HHS regions.

For those regions for which estimates are available:

• Fornax FL.1.5.1 near one in four in NY/NJ.

• EG.5 one in four in Southwest, approaching one in five in NY/NJ, near one in six in Southeast.

[See toot above for variants CDC map color key & links to sources for these charts.]

❖ #ThisIsOurPolio #Covid #Covid19 #SARS2 #CDC #variants #CovidIsNotOver #CovidIsAirborne #WearAMask #BetterMasks

Chart: SARSCoV2 Variant Dashboard - USA | 21-DAY TRENDS Source: NYITCOM Research Report (Raj Rajnarayanan) Caption (in part): Circulating Variants in…following US States: All - Specimen Collected in…last 21 days | Updated on 8/25/23 4:19:35 AM [GMT?] | Source (sequences): GISAID Bubble chart showing tallies of each identified variant for each state. Data has been filtered to show over twelve dozen Pangolin subvariants (excl. XBB.1.9* lineages). Top subvariants: Arcturus XBB.1.16 (10.55%), dot6 (8.94%), Kraken XBB.1.5 (7.05%), Arcturus dot1 (5.55%), Acrux-descendant GJ.1.2 (4.50%), Acrux XBB.2.3 (3.72%), Arcturus dot11 (3.33%). Raj has standardized bubbles to orange (Kraken XBB.1.5.

beadsland,

Folk are dying at record numbers, of comorbidities of severe acute covid that are also implicated as post-acute sequelae of covid infection. ↺

Of course, ongoing hospital staffing attrition also contributes to elevated death tolls. Said attrition continues. ↺

[CDC next updates Sep 27.]

❖

Chart: Elevated Non-Circulatory Causes of Death: Annualized Dev. from 2015-2019 Avg Data: CDC, Census. Reflects death certs that do not identify covid as underlying cause. [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines 2015–20; solid dots for annualized Jan 2021–June 2023. [Six weeks incomplete data omitted.] Dotted lines for trends from Jan 2020 forward, for each disease category. Dash-dot line for sepsis trend had concerted effort at reduction in 2019 not occurred. Legend: • Diabetes (+11K more annualized deaths vs. 2019) • Alzheimers and dementia (+19K) • Renal failure (+5K) • Sepsis (+4K) • Malignant neoplasms (+13K) • Projected U.S. 65+ population Caption: After spiking in first year of the pandemic, annualized Alzheimer disease and dementia mortality dropped just as swiftly, thereafter remaining near or below historical trend. Diabetes mortality has not been so quick to recover from first year spike, only beginning to decline in the second half of last year, though still well above pre-pandemic trend. Deaths by sepsis were markedly down in 2019, following a coordinated national effort by hospitals. Despite this, sepsis mortality has been climbing at a rate well above even pre-2019’s relatively flat trendline, for over three years now. Renal failure deaths didn’t see an appreciable climb until the latter part of 2021, peaking only months ago. Meanwhile, malignant neoplasm (cancer) deaths, slower to manifest, have been suggestively creeping above trend for well over a year.

beadsland,

Given evidence linking covid infection to sudden onset liver damage, recent increased liver disease mortality is hardly surprising.

Elevated accidental deaths, however, are less open to presumptive explanation. Extensive discussion in comments: https://mastodon.social/@beadsland/110800097173782161

[CDC next updates… anyone's guess.]

❖

Chart: Causes of Accidental Deaths: Reported Annual Data Data: National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Dashed lines for annual data for years 2015 through 2019. Chart is blank 2020 to 2022. Caption: Historically, U.S. health authorities have published “Final Data”—detailed tables and demographic analysis of causes of mortality—about eighteen months, give or take, from the close of each calendar year. This pattern has largely held for every year back to 1996, likely reflecting non-digitized (pre-PDF) practice from long before that. Yet for 2020 and 2021, we only have abridged “final statistics”, released December of last year. We would have typically expected final data for 2020 to be released last year, and final data for 2021… any month now. Undoubtedly, steeply elevated deaths by unintentional injury in recent years are attributable to a combination of factors: biomedical (consequences of both of deferred treatment for progressive and chronic conditions and newly emerged post-acute sequelae, i.e. Long Covid), sociotechnical (risks introduced by as yet unexamined pandemocene changes to our built environment and our collective navigation of same), and systemic (less access to life-saving interventions and post-injury care as a result of ongoing attrition of medical professionals). Absent data, however, we’re left only with speculation and conjecture.

beadsland,

Per WHO, every twelve minutes four people die of acute covid. Three of those deaths are in the United States.

Entering April, for every three covid deaths, U.S. saw another excess death not attributed to covid.

The emergency is over. Covid is not done with us.

[2nd viz stalled out as few countries report.]

❖

Chart: U.S. Share of 28-Day Covid Deaths Data: WHO (via Our World in Data), NCHS (via CDC), official srcs (via Wikipedia) [ beadsland on Ko-fi ] Shows covid 28-day mortality as reported for the U.S. as share of G8, G20, and global 28-day mortality, for 2½ years through August 7, 2023, this being the most recent date on which at least 50% of world population was represented in weekly reporting (see note regarding ◇ data points, below). Share of population for each comparison is provided for reference. With the end of PHE aggregate tracking, U.S. ceased reporting covid deaths to WHO. After 5/14/23, chart uses provisional covid deaths from NCHS. ◇ data points represent sum population (via Wikipedia) of those countries that reported at least one death in prior week, as percentage of world pop. [Down to near 60% as of July. Was 90% last August.] 7-day avg of U.S. share of G8 covid deaths at 77.4%, on an upward trajectory, well exceeding share of pop. (~38%). Same date last year, share of G8 covid deaths was 41.0%, jaggedly climbing toward winter. Avg. U.S. share of G20 covid deaths now 44.3% (vs. ~7% of G20 population). Same date last year: 18.7%. U.S. share of global parallels: now 37.6% (vs. ~4% of pop.). This date last year, U.S. share of global covid deaths was 18.8%. All three metrics were near or below respective populations roughly May–Aug 2021; thereafter have been profoundly higher than population but for G20/global trough due to data dump for China, March 2023.

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