Here’s an interesting article from #Russian media that covers the criminal code #Prigozhin has been charged under. Carries a 12-20 year jail term. The article also talks about the circumstances in which it was used recently. @HistoPol
Thank you very much to point out this important puzzle piece to us.
The narrative makes a lot of sense after the quasi mutiny of TV anchors that #Putin had to face today.
How reliable can this information be anymore, given that there is no independent press in #Russia anymore and that the #Kommersant has been thoroughly "cleansed"?
@HistoPol Am seeing others report the same in other #Russian press. As you say it’s basically state media so must have #Kremlin approval. And as you say it’s probably #Putin pivoting due to media backlash over letting #Prigozhin off. Also seeing reports that action will be taken against #Wagner troops who participated and of retaliation against individual soldiers. So much for Putin’s word. Presumably #Lukashenko’s security promise carries the same weight. Big question is where is Prigozhin?
1/2 #Prigozhin has surfaced. Folks on birdsite shared his voice message. Link below to translation.He claims it wasn’t a coup but an initially peaceful “protest” against the attempt to subsume Wagner into R MOD. Says they were just taking the weapons back to Moscow to hand them back. Brags about Wagner, the effectiveness of his thunder run, public support and lack of deaths on the ground….
Says #Wagner only shot down #Russian aircraft because the peaceful convoy was attacked. He decided to retreat to avoid bloodshed & because protest had been made. Says #Lukashenko offered Wagner a way to operate legally. Says 2% of Wagner signed with R MOD. Doesn’t say where he is.
Am seeing unconfirmed reports #Wagner is building base 200km from #Ukraine border
Still a waiting game to see what will happen and impacts
"...#Russia's military leaders for months, but the #mutiny he began over the weekend lasted less than a day. Nevertheless, it is a
sharp blow to President Vladimir #Putin's leadership -and may prove to be a boon for Ukraine's counter-offensive"... (1)
...because it will quite likely weaken moral among the regular troops, as the "down-to-earth general," #YevgenyPrigozhin, just demasked the #Russian military...
"...with the invasion, but it is an acceleration towards that end. I have been predicting its partitioning (still on the #Birdsite) for about a year now.
"In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity." #SunTzu
#Ukrainian forces tried to make the most of it but did not achieve all that much in the short period the #mutiny
lasted.
Having followed how #GaiusJuliusCaesar achieved his military victories,..."
"...the contrast to #Putler could hardly be any starker.
His men's loyalty, as well as #Caesar's loyalty to them, apart from his military genius, were the foundations:
"He was always close to his troops. In spite of the danger, the #Roman#general wanted to connect directly with his army because he knew that meant a boost to his #soldiers’ #morale. He ate with them, slept with them, bled with them.
Being in proximity to his men also allowed #Caesar to..."
"...of the Mongol Empire, the collapse of the #RussianFederation will be the largest humanity has experienced. (I see the #RF as a reincarnation of the #USSR.)
What happened last weekend?
In my opinion, some conspirators in the #Kremlin were trying to overthrow #Putler. They made a pact with "#YevgenyPrigozhin.
They didn't uphold their part of the bargain, e.g. to "open the gates of #Moscow.
I agree with #TheEconomist, both sides are regrouping.
@HistoPol Interesting. Am seeing reports #Surovikin has been arrested pending investigation. Also seeing reports that the Russian Govt has informed relevant foreign states (Syria etc) that #Russian Govt has taken over the #Wagner PMC. Saw yesterday some reports of Russian military police arresting overseas Wagner commanders. Plus reports that #Putin might still go after #Prigozhin for other illegality. Too busy to dig out the sources now but will try find them later.
#Putin is a wounded bear. Or, to use another analogy, "blood is in the water."
He can't be seen to let this blatant well-publized insubordination of his authority that damaged his reputation as a strongman like nothing that I can think of go unpunished.
#TheEconomist thinks that #Wagner mercenaries will be employed to draw #Ukrainian forces to the North-Eastern front. (1) I concur.
...not be the first to be killed by "friendly fire."
If I were #Putin, I would be working towards that end and then use some captured Western weaponry delivered to #Ukraine to finish him off. #Kiew might not even disavow this potential fakenews, as they could claim a major victory against #Russia.
…. But indications are that #Prigozhin’s coup and retreat hasn’t had much success at keeping him in control of #wagner Let’s see if it he stays out of prison … and alive.
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