this is very encouraging. Fuel cells have always been a wild fantasy that doesn’t quite work in the real world, but it seems like a few forces in politics and industry are changing that
@kellogh It is the same trajectory that BEVs went through. People didn’t care about any new powertrain technology until there was an environmental motive. Which is why FCEVs are becoming inevitable. There are simply too many situations where you must have a chemical fuel based car. Environmentalism depends on it.
That article is overly optimistic. The only thing that's inevitable is that #hydrogen#FCEV cars will fail. They're a last gasp effort by incumbents to try and stay relevant. But with a crumbling refueling infrastructure they're going nowhere. For example Shell are bailing out in CA.
And the ownership experience for #hydrogen cars is horrendous. Losing $30k in value in 3 years. Underwhelming real life fuel efficiency and crippling running costs when the free fuel bribery from the manufacturer expires. The owner in this video has had enough.
@mackaj@Hypx i don’t know much in this area, but it smells like something more investment would address. like, high cost of ownership is typically addressed with scale, as companies compete to be more appealing, the costs are driven down
It's a chicken and egg situation though. They won't build cars at scale until they can see pent up demand. There won't be demand growth without a massively scaled up refueling infrastructure. But fuel companies won't risk investing in a large scale national refueling infrastructure unless they see a demand for it.
Tesla tackled this problem by building their own national charging network. Who's going to do that in the hydrogen space? Toyota? I can't see it.
@mackaj@Hypx right, so in this case the federal government stepped in to ease the chicken-and-egg scenario and provide incentives that make it economically feasible for companies to take the market seriously
@mackaj@kellogh BEVs have already failed as a credible replacement for fossil fuel powered cars.
What people like you don't realize is that if not #hydrogen, there will be nothing else. As the subsidies and the hype dries up, BEVs will vanish from the market. People are either being corporate drones or climate change deniers by refusing to accept anything other than BEVs.
You couldn't be more wrong. Global sales of BEVs continue to increase every year. Inflation combined with a fierce push back from the fossil fuel industry against electrification has slowed the rate of growth a bit, but not stopped it. More new BEV models are arriving this year than ever before and charging networks are expanding rapidly.
People who fight the transition to BEVs are perpetuating the onset of climate change by hindering CO2 reduction.
Thats why I said globally. Some economies are more depressed than others, but the overall picture is good.
Discounts are the norm everywhere. The Inflation Reduction Act heavily discounts hydrogen projects to promote adoption. Fossil fuel companies get massive tax breaks for opening and developing new fields. FCEVs have been heavily discounted by the manufacturers for many years.
@mackaj@kellogh We are very likely peaking in sales even globally. Overall picture is that of an extremely artificial market, propped up by subsidies. That is changing now.
Given the sheer size of investment, any slowdown is a disaster scenario. It mirrors the trajectory of biofuel and diesel cars.
@mackaj@kellogh Again, this is the peak. And given the sheer enormity of the subsidies and government support, these numbers are a disaster. And subsidies will have to end.
Just 12 new hydrogen cars last year in Australia.
Cant buy one, can only lease.
Only 2 models to choose from.
Have to drive around in circles as you can't drive to the only other filling station in Australia as way outside range.
Filling stations are very costly to maintain.
Not very efficient
Hydrogen cost more than filling equipment fossil fuel car.
More costly to maintain vehicle
Filling stations closings down in California and UK.
@SuperMoosie@mackaj@kellogh The point you're missing is that BEVs have already failed as a credible idea. It is just proving to be a fad.
If you won't accept #hydrogen, then you are insisting on fossil fuels. And the more anti-hydrogen propaganda you spread, the more difficult the transition process will be.
In the end, there are no alternatives. Either accept hydrogen or stop pretending to be concerned about the environment.
@SuperMoosie@mackaj@kellogh What you missed is the ludicrous amount of subsidies and government support for BEVs. At that level of support, it has to totally dominate the market. But it hasn't. And that is a bad sign. It mirrors the trajectory of ethanol or diesel cars.
As a result, we can safely say it is headed for extinction. Car companies are noticing the truth BTW:
But the real issue is that we have subsidized and propped up the BEV industry to an absurd degree. It must dominate or it is a failure. And it is far from being dominant.
In reality, you are acting like those who opposed BEVs and supported diesel cars back in 2008. Basically refusing to look forward and only looking backwards, not realizing what the industry is heading towards and not from.
Green hydrogen is not an alternative for transport and never will be unless the production and supply issue is solved first.
Meanwhile the BEV transition marches on. New models are introduced every year with more in development. And the fast charging network just grows and grows.
Concern for the environment isn't synonymous with an interest in Hydrogen.
@mackaj@SuperMoosie@kellogh Wrong. The BEVs movement is reaching a crisis point. It has already proven to not be a viable option for most of ground transport. This has become another dead end idea like ethanol or diesel. Refusing to accept any new options that could come after BEVs is just becoming its own form of climate change denial. At the very least, it is the result of close-minded people that are stuck in the past.
So you keep saying, but you're not convincing me or anyone else here either.
My brother recently bought a 2022 Tesla Model 3 Long Range. He hasn't even bothered to install a 7kW charger at home. He does ~40 miles/day and uses a normal wall socket to top it off each night. A few times a month he does a 250 mile round trip with a 15 mins stop for a 'just in case' charge on the way back. Hydrogen can't compete with convenience like that, or the cost.
@mackaj@SuperMoosie@kellogh Then you have a virtue signaling family. In the end, reality doesn’t care about the behavior of a handful of out-of-touch rich people. What must happen will happen.
@mackaj@SuperMoosie@kellogh People said similar things about ethanol or diesel cars having staying power. We shall see how things will go for the current green car fad.
What? That makes no sense. Neither ethanol or diesel are green fuels, plus diesel has enjoyed staying power for decades — right up to the point where all fossil fuels are to be phased out.
I've never even heard of an ethanol powered car.
BEVs are here to stay because you can charge them almost anywhere.
FCEV are going nowhere (literally) because of the opposite.
@mackaj Ethanol powered cars were called flexfuel cars (at least in the US).
And all of them were hyped up as the future of transportation at one point or another. They all ended up being green fads, often with huge side effects too.
Companies ignored BEVs in favor of diesel cars at one point. They're now favoring BEVs over FCEVs. The last time ended in disaster. History will repeat itself.
Never heard of them. And how is burning ethanol supposed to be green when it produces carbon dioxide? Answer: it isn't.
BEVs cars from history didn't enjoy modern lithium based high energy, fast recharge chemistries. Or ubiquitous access to electricity and the kind of high powered recharging networks being deployed today.
It's a whole new world dude, and the outcome this time will be very different.
@mackaj Ethanol was popular in the US for a while. It didn't happen in Europe, which went with diesel.
BEVs have not solved their fundamental weaknesses. They are still heavy and need huge amounts of raw materials. And they are more expensive than conventional ICE cars to build.
It is more akin to the early 1900s when BEVs first dominated. It died once ICE cars took off. This history can also repeat.
They need more raw materials initially to build, but consume an order of magnitude less material extracted from the ground over their lifetime compared to ICE cars. That's the whole point.
Plus most of the extra build materials can be recycled, and batteries are designed now with recycling as the end goal.
Lithium only has to be dug up once, then it can be recycled and reused over and over again. It doesn't get used up.
@mackaj We are far away from mining enough material for all of the BEVs people are imagining. And recycling is still mostly a hypothetical. Very little of that happens.
But those are still side-issues. The main one is that BEVs are still uncompetitive cost-wise. And if you pay attention to company announcements about this subject, you'd know that the shoe is about to drop on the BEV.
Very little of that happens currently because the batteries last a long time. And even when they're not good enough for cars anymore they still have an excellent second life use as static storage where the use profile is different. This is a growth industry over the next decade as more batteries start to age out.
Incumbent car manufacturers are paying the price for ignoring BEVs for too long. The shift will be painful for many of them but they'll have to do it, or die.
@mackaj Clearly, you are not paying attention to recent events. Companies like Toyota are swimming in cash while companies that invested heavily in BEVs have lost billions. The next step is a dramatic scaling back of BEV investment simply due to financial realities. It’s pretty obvious that a major shift is currently happening, and it is the opposite of what you’re imagining.
Really? Tesla, Kia, Hyundai, Audi, MG, Porsche, Mercedes, Renault, Stellantis, and others all saw growth and strong profits for 2023 (I checked). All investing heavily in BEV technologies. Clearly they can afford to weather and continue the transition.
Hydrogen transport has flopped, so by wishing the demise of BEV transport what you're actually doing is promoting a switch back to ICE vehicles. Why would you want that? Your stance is totally anti-climate.
@mackaj Then you aren't paying attention. So many of those companies are scaling back BEV investment. The next few years will be a wake-up call for guys like you.
Political pressure to react to climate change is just going to grow as the years pass. Governments will be forced to take actions to push the BEV transition, investing more in infrastructure, cutting sales taxes, etc. And BEV production costs will shrink as both volume and expertise grow. BEVs are here to stay.
You can take that message back to your fossil fuel paymasters!
@mackaj They can easily push FCEVs, once they realize BEVs aren't working. All you're doing is begging the question, by implying BEVs are the only answer.
"easily" my butt, you can't run FCEVs on thin air.
Green Hydrogen production capacity is tiny and can't remotely meet that demand, plus there isn't anywhere near enough spare renewable energy to lend to the task. Nor are there enough electrolysers and the distribution infrastructure barely even exists. The costs and timescales would be colossal to both the taxpayer and the consumer.
You totally live in cloud cuckoo land — completely detached from reality.
@mackaj All your doing now is denying reality. BEVs are failing because they have received a ludicrous amount of financial support and yet to catch on. A repeat of ethanol and diesel cars. This is going to end badly.
Meanwhile, new ideas like hydrogen are expanding like past green ideas. It is simply following wind and solar power in its growth. Naysayers just ended up being seen as idiots back then, and will again.
After several years of trying, global FCEV sales were only ~15k in 2023. Pathetic!
Hydrogen truck makers Hyzon and Nikola Motors were both given delisting notices by Nasdaq in January as their stock has performed so badly.
This damning report detailing Shell's abandonment of hydrogen filling stations, also highlights that (failing) Green Hydrogen projects are struggling to find buyers willing to accept the inflated cost.
@mackaj BEVs were at basically zero before 2008. Guys like you are being shortsighted. You just propping up the next diesel car without regard with what comes next. A mistake VW made and paid for it dearly. History will repeat itself.
You also need to pay attention to what your poster boy Toyota are saying. They may be late to the BEV party but they're betting big on BEVs going forward. They've set a target to sell 1.7M bev cars annually by 2030.
They don't agree with your predictions of doom at all.
They're also working on developing 3rd generation fuel cells technology, but it's very clear that they're pivoting FCEV tech away from cars towards "commercial vehicles".
@mackaj Toyota is being forced to make BEVs due to government legislation. They also made diesel cars BTW.
But this is a temporary phenomenon. Everyone will move away from the government mandated technology that is both expensive and limited. We are already seeing that starting to happen now.
Finally, Toyota is being praised for ignoring BEVs up until now, because everyone lost billions of dollars on their BEV plans. The trend in the market is moving away from BEVs.
This is not a popularity contest. The goal is to decarbonise transport to reduce human impact on climate change. To achieve that burning fossil fuels for transport must stop.
For all the reasons you choose to ignore, green hydrogen is not an option.
Your dogmatic and pointless attacks on BEVs don't change the fact that BEVs are the only way we will achieve this. It won't be a quick or painless shift, it's going to take a decade, but it will happen. End of.
@mackaj That’s rich coming from you. You have it made entirely a popularity contest. Seriously attempts at stopping climate change means not going with BEVs, which are best a very limited solution.
@mackaj No one is wishing for a return to ICE cars. It happens regardless because BEVs have failed. You are basically blaming others for the failures of your own proposals.
BEVs haven't failed. There has been a slowdown in adoption because of ..
Aggressive fossil fuel lobbying
A softening of political will
A media campaign of lies paid for by fossil fuel lobbying
Economic stress caused by global interest rate rises.
But they're still selling in the millions.
Look at FCEVs if you want to see a true story of failure. Astronomically expensive to buy & run. Pitiful sales. A weak and declining infrastructure. No help to combat climate change at all.
@mackaj LOL it's a dead technology walking. Everything you said can be said of diesel cars not that long ago.
Like I said previously, given how much government support (remember, they're literally mandated to be 100% of cars by 2035!), anything less than total dominance is a failure. And they are worlds away from total dominance. It's clear that it is doomed.
Nope. It just needs continuing reduction in battery costs and improved charging infrastructure. Both will make significant strides over the next 11 years.
Battery tech is evolving at a rapid pace too and that will also help.
@mackaj Which has been a broken record among BEV fanatics. It is far away from happening. And the limits of batteries are showing themselves. People with foresight are seeing a transition away from BEVs.
Charging infrastructure grows every day as new installations are continuously added. This is not going to stop.
Battery costs have fallen massively and continue to do so. See the linked article (with graph).
You're not aware of developments and improvements in battery chemistry because you choose to remain willfully ignorant. We've had that conversation before!
@mackaj Same broken record crap. Of course, if you're starting with high-end electronics, you can make a lot of price drops. The problem is that you're hit a limit at some point.
BEVs have clearly hit that limit. Even now, it's just China and low wages plus zero environmental rule getting it even to this point. The rest of world is moving away. Even as we speak, companies are announcing a shift to hybrids instead.
Ooo .. look at all these new EV models destined for the US starting from this year. I'd better contact them and tell them not to bother because energy guru Hypx says they're wasting their time 😆
And here's another EV list with more models destined for European market this year. Autocar describes them as "arriving thick and fast". I'd better call them quick to spread your wisdom as well 😆
@mackaj A lot of these will be low selling models. Not really relevant since total sales are stagnant and the companies making them are losing billions on them.
They also have to be good cars, which is often not the case. In many cases, it's a turd:
Better stick to Chinese and European models then if your home grown cars are so pants 😄
Issues like seat belts, floor mats and car software are not EV issues, they're just bad design and implementation from one vendor.
If you're still on Mastodon in Jan 25, let's review the situation then and see who was right.
@mackaj The problems come from companies trying to hit profitability targets, ending up with crappy cars. This will repeat itself everywhere. The next stage will be admitting they will never be truly profitable followed by scaling back of BEV production. I believe that latter part is already happening.
I looked into this. Most OEMs plan car deployments years ahead and have many BEV models in advanced development. They predict profit crossover between ICE and BEVs later on this decade as volumes increase and costs drop. So scaling back now would be counter intuitive.
Some BEVs are already profitable. Tesla obviously, but Hyundai/KIA models as well. Surprisingly they took Tesla's crown early in 2023 for the most profit per BEV, demonstrating to other OEMs that this is achievable.
@mackaj Mostly this is lagging investment decisions. The momentum has clearly shifted away from BEVs. As car companies are being forced to dump BEVs at a lost or minimal profits, claims of profitability will fall apart and so will future development decisions.
And we can seriously doubt profits are happening for real. Tesla is selling 8-12 year old platforms via pure hype and questionable accounting. It's at least Jack Welsh levels of financial engineering.
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