A lunar base ist vital for #Elmos planned colonization of #Mars. #Recently, there have been several endavors, to establish basis on the far side of the #Moon.
Agreed, real use of #NuclearFusion has always been "always around the corner" for several decades. Just like #AI. Last year, there was a big break through re/ energy produced. 50 years is a very long time.
#AGI will happen first, within this decades. IMO, the next evolutionary step hinges...
I know, e.g. "Mondbasis Alpha 1" (Lunar Base Alpha 1,) the TV series.
The resolve and the business oportunities lacked. If you look at #TESCREAL, you will see that all tech billionaire adherents to these cults are dead serious in completing the Mars mission.
And #LLMs and #AI are just "the next big thing" globally in all lines of business. There's not only a figurative "arms race" between AI companies, but also b/w the US and China.
What is different are the almost unlimited amounts..
...of resources and the will of almost all powerful people around the global, political or business leaders.
The only type of events that will prevent 2 of the 3 are the fallouts from the #ClimateCatastrophe
extreme weather events that are now 90x more likely (depending on regions) than before andropogenic warming
huge regions of the globe becoming uninhabitable, ensuing in unprecended, unimaginable streams of #ClimateRefugees (300 mn - 2 bn., depending on estimates).
...on #embodiment, and several companies are working on that front. The very basic reason being 3-fold:
IMO real-time and sensory data access is necessary for consciousness
several (non-computer) scientists agree that a corporal, physical presence is a step in evolution.
The moment an #AI is hooked up to sensory data world wide, it will be a tremendous amount of data very different from texts and videos. Once it learns to use it somewhere, all connected #AIs know this at once.
I know, you love the topic of "embodiment", and yet: Whilst I believe it to be a necessary step, and I also believe that there is a high probability that general artificial intelligence will some day be reached, I'm pretty sure, it won't happen that soon.
Technology breakthroughs are becoming rarer and rarer every decade.
Yes, because IMO #embodiment is the key, from a sociologial and systems-dynamics perspective, and probably also from a computer-science one, too, as the main thrust comes from this field.
The great thing is, that I think we will not have to wait that long for #AGI to happen. IMO, it will be the first of the three.
IDK if you have read the beanchmark short novel "The Lifecycle of Software Objects"* by Ted Chiang, not only...
He recently had a very interesting interview with #Stanford's sociology department about the subject of rearing an A(G)I.
Object in the mirror are much closer than they appear. - No, seriously, technological development doesn't follow a linear path, as you know. Business strategist Michael Porter favored the creation of clusters or Diamonds, even on a national level.
I think there will be yet another "quantum leap" due to the 3 points I mentioned initially.
And, as I like to add, there has been a big breakthrough in #QuantumComputing (QC) this year, too. - So far completely unrealited from #AI development. The combination of #LLM technologie and QC has yet the potential for another "quantum leap" in non-linear development.
The only thing I cannot fathom at all, is how a breakthrough in...
a) AGI will lead to huge breakthroughs in other fields (unless it were an evil one;)) - A lot is already happening in #biosciences. However, power and water consumption will rise tremendously, adverse affecting the #climatebreakdown
b) Commercialization of #NuclearFusion would make AGI (apart from the H2O issue) manageable and cheaper in TOC. Also, it would provide a new source of energy for...
...spacecraft, enabling higher speeds, further reaches, etc.
c) A successful establishment of a #Martian colony by Musk would lead to an immense drain of resources, as the rich would have a "safe room" from climate breakdown.
And there are probably more interdepencies, these are just from the top of my head.
And just to be clear:
this is no 1950's enthusiasm for technological advances. Except for #NuclearFusion, I think it would be best if the other two would not happen. //
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