Discussions about the dismal science

FantasticalEconomics,
@FantasticalEconomics@geekdom.social avatar

I've been on here a few years, probably time for an !

I , , and because it's what I know.

I discuss and because I believe they are important (and for the same reason).

I research , pedagogy, and grades because incentives matter, especially in .

I read and and just for the fun of it.

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

"Nowhere is this [innovation by petit bourgeoisie] more evident than in the modern software industry, where virtually all the novel ideas have been created by individuals or small partnerships"

"The competitive advantage of large firms lies largely in their capitalization, marketing muscle, lobbying power, and vertical integration, not in their original ideas and innovation."

James Scott "Two cheers for Anarchism" (pg 96)

#economics #anarchy #technology #software

ChrisMayLA6,
@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar

Are we on the verge of a(nother) financial crisis?

@AnnPettifor thinks we are, and here she offers some evidence for that suspicion.

And as she, therefore concludes:

'Given recent history, it might be wise to tighten your financial seatbelts'!

Its could be a bumpy ride.....

https://annpettifor.substack.com/p/time-to-tighten-financial-seatbelts?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@economics

Is there any downside to taking say the 99.5th percentile of wealth, and requiring anyone over that value to sell say 5% of their holdings of each stock or fund they own and pay the proceeds as tax?

ParadeGrotesque,
@ParadeGrotesque@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@dlakelan @economics@a.gup.pe

"Functional, non-oligopoly markets", sure, let's discuss that, because that's almost non existent today.

So let's break up oligopolies, by seizing companies & breaking them up into smaller pieces.

Wait, you mean the state is now doing a good thing? And something that is very close to nationalization? Who would have thought?!?

By the way, incorrect allocation of resources is how we get economic crises. Private companies overestimate growth & over-invest.

ParadeGrotesque,
@ParadeGrotesque@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@dlakelan @economics@a.gup.pe

Let me be very clear: private companies will always fail because none of them has a clear & complete picture of the market. (Which is an impossibility, but I digress...)

Misallocation of resources by the private & public sector is therefore the norm & not the exception.

The difference is that a governmental organization does not have to maximize profits, unlike the private sector, and can therefore better manage sparse resources in the public interest.

bdiss,
@bdiss@beige.party avatar

Housing needs to be a human right. Period.

#housing #economics

ChrisMayLA6,
@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar

You'll be unsurprised to see that the UK's standard of living has improved (on average) less than many developed countries (exceptions being we're doing better than France, Greece & Spain).... so while over the period 2007-2019 living standards have risen (just) other countries have done better.

And real (average) earnings were only 3.5% higher than 2009 in 2023.

More evidence of the lack of economic rewards the country has gained from voting in a Tory Govt.

#inequality #economics

lewiscowles1986,
@lewiscowles1986@phpc.social avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 poor Greece

bocvip,
@bocvip@vive.im avatar
jrefior,
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar

GOP politicians have been legislating so-called "work requirements" for government benefits. They claim they put people back to work.

But anyone who's been paying attention knows the policies passed don't do that, and the politicians really have other motives:

  1. disenroll people (especially black women) from government benefits
  2. quid pro quo for campaign donations from the corporations the government pays to administer the programs
    https://www.nber.org/papers/w32441
    https://hachyderm.io/@jrefior/110355989023528418

jrefior,
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar
  1. create a captive pool of cheap labor for their other corporate donors

    #GOP #WorkRequirements #inequality #poverty #welfare #NBER
dlakelan,
@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org avatar

@economics@a.gup.pe

US large bank credit card debt per capita / CPI

We are at an all time high in credit card debt. This is fine?

GhostOnTheHalfShell,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan

So the script didn’t exist so I changed to a for eachline() and reduced the argument passed to the Bernoulli (sampling right? i know his name from fluid dynamics; not familiar with any stats work on his part) because the returned file size was 1 or 2 samples from the 360k file on your given script.

🧵

GhostOnTheHalfShell,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan

i thunk another thought, if a household can be tracked in time, is there value using the data to help matching populations? also, is there something to be said of the kinds of households occupy them and if that changes over time?

ChrisMayLA6,
@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar

The Office for National Statistics has been having some trouble with its key reports (such as the Labour Force Survey) & aside from dealing with budget cuts, it has also confronted (under-reported) strike action on the removal of flexible working for staff as well as a (linked?) growing exodus of staff (many in high-expertise middle level positions have left for the private sector); less than half as many people joined the ONS as left in 2023.

The ONS is in trouble!

h/t FT

ChrisMayLA6,
@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar

Second Tom Gauld cartoon of the week:

the graph that prompted Rishi Sunak's decision to call the election?

#election2024 #rishisunak #economics

mlansbury,

@mlansbury@despora.de:> ## Opinion: The West should launch a new economic Cold War against Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to revive the Soviet Union, but two can play this game. To complete the Kremlin’s grotesque historical reenactment, the West should launch a new economic Cold War in response.

In addition to the war of aggression waged against the civilians and cities of Ukraine, Russia has also waged an asymmetrical economic war against the global economy and the international trade system that underpins it.

Russia’s of trade, particularly of energy supplies, has caused massive disruptions in international markets and triggered a cascade of economic setbacks globally.

kyivindependent.com/opinion-th…

ChrisMayLA6,
@ChrisMayLA6@zirk.us avatar

The (centrist) Social Market Foundation asked a group of economists to look at the Labour Party's economic policies & see what theorising lies behind them (if anything).

They concluded that pragmatism & small scale/focussed policy interventions seemed to be the driving logic(s) rather than any more general economic theory or position (in this sense they lack the coherence of Biden's policy approach).

Whether this is a problem remans to be seen.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/what-economists-think-of-labours-economic-policy/

lennardvanotterloo,
@lennardvanotterloo@mastodon.social avatar

@ChrisMayLA6 @KimSJ I wonder how knowable some of Labour's planned policies are. There is electorally no benefit to nailing their colours to the mast before the election as that can only damage their appeal with some voter group or another.

I think their biggest challenge will be making their voters feel that something has radically changed for the better in the first 100 days. Only some of that can be achieved with economic policy.

tony,
@tony@hoyle.me.uk avatar

@lennardvanotterloo @ChrisMayLA6 @KimSJ The moment they announce a policy the right wing press will attack it.

How much that'll affect voting these days, I'm not so sure (back in the day it could decide elections) but they're obviously trying to avoid talking about anything.

GhostOnTheHalfShell,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics@a.gup.pe

#inflation #Economics #mmt

An inflationary spiral based on expectations. It is a very different one from a deflationary one.

In the case of supply chain disruption (think floods and drought) it's a supply shock and at best businesses have to scramble to adapt (invest etc) to get around the problem. But hammering COL demand is perverse.

In all cases, messing around with interest rates is largely an exercise in futility.

🧵

https://youtu.be/eX4Sh1sq6HU?si=8NUW_83dz4sfUDtE

GhostOnTheHalfShell,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@gooba42 @economics@a.gup.pe

Technically incorrect. Per MMT, banks don't lend from anything.

Lending creates an asset (bank wealth, but not "money") and deposit at the same time. Credit money (the deposit) is created ex-nihil.

A bank may need the Fed to give it reserves to cover the deposit if its value is to be transferred to another bank.

The lending capacity of a bank is governed by its deposit-market-share, its flows and the ability of borrowers to pay

🧵

GhostOnTheHalfShell,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@gooba42 @economics@a.gup.pe

Paying back the loan destroys the money created, but the bank pockets that interest charge.

Ultimately, that credit money comes straight from the Fed and government deficit.

The federal government's deficit is where banks get their (profit) money from. Out. Of. Thin. Air.

jrefior, (edited )
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar

Rents have been a major source of high prices and inflation in the last ~3 years.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA

"For the first time [2023], the average renter household in this country is paying 30% of their income on rent"
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/01/20/the-average-u-s-renter-now-spends-30-of-their-income-on-rent-a-new-all-time-high/

#economics #rent #inequality #poverty

jrefior,
@jrefior@hachyderm.io avatar

It takes years to go from concept to reality for a new apartment building. But we have been increasing construction, and a number of new units have been coming online this year.

When I look at this graph, I see the bottom after the 2008 financial and foreclosure crisis. But it also looks to me like we haven't been building enough since the late 1980s:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST5F

#housing #shelter #apartment

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