@owasow@mastodon.social
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owasow

@owasow@mastodon.social

Asst Prof, UC Berkeley, Political Science. Study protests, stats & race:
1/ Agenda Seeding j.mp/agenda-seeding
2/ Race as a Bundle of Sticks j.mp/bundle-of

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owasow, to random
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owasow, to random
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In Laura Poitras’s 2022 doc about Goldin, the photographer describes a resistance to her art in the ’80s, “especially from male artists and gallerists who said ‘This isn’t photography. Nobody photographs their own life.’ It was still a kind of outlier act.” Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/03/t-magazine/photography-robert-frank-gordon-parks.html?unlocked_article_code=1.xE0.qNiN.u11MaaSWh0xr&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

owasow, to random
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There’s a certain poetry to Trump’s insistence that his lawyers deny reality playing a key role in their failed defense and, ultimately, his conviction. Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/30/opinion/trump-trial-defense.html?unlocked_article_code=1.wE0.tWPw.Zwz_v_LjWlIX&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

owasow, to random
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On question of “will it matter?” am reminded of study that used day-level data from millions of Twitter bios and found ”Capitol insurrection caused large-scale de-identification with Republican Party and Trump with no indication of re-identification in weeks following insurrection.” https://osf.io/dvgj3/

image/png

owasow, to random
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America, where a broken taillight can get you killed but a car modded to wake thousands at night leads to a $155 ticket. ¯_(ツ)_/¯ Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/29/us/seattle-belltown-hellcat.html?unlocked_article_code=1.vk0.mmKZ.J3XVTHwRzxTv&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

owasow, to random
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“ The 21st century has seen unprecedented levels of mass protest all over the world. Protest is a dynamic interplay of actions over time, across levels of society (e.g., individual, interpersonal, group, intergroup), and across domains (e.g., social, cultural, political, economic). To illustrate this systems view, we first describe the local and global ecology of protest as it operates in the world now.” https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13684302241245660

owasow, to random
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“He used to tell me that the symptoms of a backward city are: one, homeless people; two, traffic jams; three, flooding; and four, polluted air,” Mr. Liu said of Mr. Lee, Singapore’s founding father. Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/world/asia/singapore-public-housing-urban-planner.html?unlocked_article_code=1.uk0.gGTi.vsjy9TDYbPZZ&smid=url-share

owasow, to random
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“Black social movements face a dilemma in that the public often perceives nonviolent Black disruptive protest as violent…we find Congress is generally more accepting of nondisruptive protest but nondisruptive protest is only roughly one-tenth as effective for Blacks” https://academic.oup.com/sf/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/sf/soae073/7676333?redirectedFrom=fulltext

owasow,
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@andresmh There's definitely a broad range of evidence, including in my own work, of extreme protest tactics driving backlash dynamics. In the 1968 election, I find civil rights protests with protester-initiated violence caused enough of a backlash that it cost Humphrey the election. At same time, I doubt that will happen now because the campus protests are overwhelmingly peaceful (99% by one estimate) and extreme tactics pretty limited. For more, old thread: https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1265709670892580869

owasow,
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owasow, to random
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Polisci finds elite cues play major role shaping mass opinion. Dan Gillion’s book, The Loud Minority, suggests another pathway: protests also serve as an informative cue to members of allied coalition. So, even if overall opinion is mixed, a key thing to watch is opinion among Dems over time.

owasow, to random
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“One way to understand how protest movements spread is the ‘ovation model,’” Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/26/world/europe/interpreter-gaza-college-protests.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nU0.ufjf.Pxgi0wqGLq7M&smid=url-share

owasow, to random
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Episode led to minor insight: with ICE cars, $30K, $80K and $300K models are functionally similar. With EVs, however, $30k has smaller battery, lower range (still good for 95+% of trips), while $300k (eg, Waymo) has many expensive sensors for true self-driving. Under whims of Musk’s leadership, Tesla has ceded both low- and high-end categories.

For more listen to @asymco on https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/disrupting-the-car-with-horace-dediu/id1454761546?i=1000652686683

owasow, to random
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“Five of the top 10 major cities with the highest rates of homelessness nationally are in California: San Francisco, Long Beach, LA, Oakland & Sacramento, in that order. In 2022, the homelessness rate in San Francisco was nearly 20X higher than in Houston, and Los Angeles’ was almost 14X higher.” https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2024-04-05/california-texas-housing-homelessness

owasow, to random
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New study: “We examine how gender shapes 25,000 everyday interactions between strangers. We manipulate gender, class, and ethnicity of research assistants [who prompt] pedestrians...to provide directions, help with dropped groceries, or lend cell phone to RA.” https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59a360bacd0f681b1cb27caa/t/65fedd90de47053304ef31a2/1711201688003/gender_trust_gap_maintext_11March2024.pdf

We examine how gender shapes 25,000 everyday interactions between strangers around the world. We manipulate the gender, class, and ethnic- ity of research assistants approaching pedestrians, then measure whether pedestrians: provide directions, help with dropped groceries, or lend their cell phone to the research assistant. Across all countries and experiments, we find that women are more likely to be helped — but less likely to help a stranger in need — compared to men, driven by gendered safety concerns. Gender is a larger and more consistent determinant of behavior than eth- nicity or class. Survey questions on social trust correlate strongly with our outcomes on average — but cannot recover the gender gap we observe in real-world behavior. These findings highlight the critical role of gender in shaping social trust and participation in the public sphere more broadly.
Illustrative Images of the Three Experiments being conducted in Buenos Aires, New Delhi, and Dhaka respectively
Who is Helped? Differences in help rates based on confederate attributes: female effect (female vs male) (panel A), rich effect (rich vs not rich) (panel B), and ethnic majority effect (majority vs not majority) (panel C). Raw means are presented, along with 95% confidence intervals. The sample size for panels A and B is n = 24,820 and n = 7,307 for panel C, as we study ethnicity only in Nairobi, Buenos Aires and New York City.

owasow, to random
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“Sending eight emails and texts a day that promise an artificial donor-match, threaten to take away your GOP membership, or call you a traitor if you don’t donate doesn’t build a long-term relationship with donors.” Gift link: https://wapo.st/4cHJ3UL

owasow, to random
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“The plots presented throughout this book will be useful in teaching my students the fundamentals of causal inference, and how to avoid making up stories by simply looking at trend lines.” https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00902-2

owasow, to random
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“Nonetheless, it raised an awkward prospect: That a fugitive who had eluded German police for 30 years was found in about 30 minutes by Mr. Colborne, a Canadian journalist who works for the investigative website Bellingcat, and is in junior high school...” Gift link: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/01/world/europe/daniela-klette-red-army-faction.html?unlocked_article_code=1.ak0.xRCa.PVm1fcVujjLP&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb

owasow, to random
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Survey experiment on BLM finds, “Overall, both Blacks and whites react negatively to more disruptive protests but whites tend to react more negatively than Blacks.” https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-race-ethnicity-and-politics/article/by-any-means-necessary-how-black-and-white-americans-evaluate-protest-tactics-in-response-to-a-police-killing/C27ED94315FEC234BFD82F4CB4A6FB4B

The majority of protests in support of racial justice are peaceful. However, since the racial reckoning of 2020, there has been debate about when and how exposure to violent or disruptive protest activities can shift public opinion towards a social movement. Using the Black Lives Matter Movement as a lens, we design a survey experiment to test the causal effects of different protest tactics on support for protesters and the movement itself among Black and white Americans. We include a control condition with no protest and manipulate the level of disruption in each treatment condition, ranging from a simple march in response to the police killing of an unarmed Black man to a protest in which participants set fire to an empty police headquarters. We use OLS regressions to estimate average treatment effects. Overall, we find that both Blacks and whites react negatively to more disruptive protests but whites tend to react more negatively than Blacks. Conversely, we also find that whites overall report more confidence in the ability of Black Lives Matter to facilitate racial equality after exposure to a protest, even when that protest employs disruptive tactics. We also test for the moderating effects of racial identity and racial resentment. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for the broader literature on social movements and public opinion.

owasow, to random
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“The number of Haley supporters telling pollsters they will back Biden—roughly 40% according to state and national polls—is striking. Even if some were never Trump voters to begin with, the figure suggests a large number of current and former Republicans may not be coming home.” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/24/us/politics/trump-independent-voters.html

owasow,
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Counterpoint:

Ignore recent exit polls to the contrary.

Almost all Republicans will vote for Trump this fall... Here's why.

Article by @tesler.bsky.social

https://goodauthority.org/news/exit-polls-republicans-trump/

owasow, to random
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#DirectorsSoMale?

“The Gerwig snub was delivered by the directors branch, which is made up of just 587 voters, about a quarter of which are women.” https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/23/movies/greta-gerwig-barbie-oscar-snub.html

owasow, to random
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“Apprentice producers began to fiddle with the recipe. The second season stuck with men against women; the next tried “street smarts” vs “book smarts.” Trump had other ideas: in 2005, Entertainment Weekly reported he wanted to pit black contestants against white ones.” https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/07/31/the-tv-that-created-donald-trump

owasow, to random
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“Israeli security and military agencies produced repeated assessments that Hamas was neither interested in nor capable of launching a massive invasion, and clung to that optimistic view even when Israel obtained Hamas battle plans that revealed an invasion was precisely what Hamas was planning.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/30/world/middleeast/israeli-military-hamas-failures.html?unlocked_article_code=1.J00.zqWp.dp5W1J9A1OL7&smid=url-share

owasow, to random
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“The rapper’s next album, ‘Vultures,’ is set to be released on Jan. 12 after a delay. On its title track, Ye raps that he cannot be antisemitic because he had sex with a Jewish woman.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/26/arts/music/kanye-west-apology-antisemitism.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

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