Leaked internal calculations at the EU show that accession for Ukraine and others would demolish the union’s status quo: All members would pay more to and receive less from the EU budget; many current net receivers would become net contributors. 😅
@kevinrothrock Which should also be the same countries lobbying the loudest for Ukranian EU accession. When Western European nations warned of this, they were info campaigned against. Especially Poland used every bit anti-German sentiment for its elections. Now they realize they may have shot themselves in the foot.
@elpolacodesplegado Why should they be lobbying for it the loudest? Doesn’t losing EU benefits reduce the appeal of expanding the EU? What’s your message to the farmers whose businesses might become uncompetitive?
@kevinrothrock That's the point of populist politics in Poland. There's two main perpetrators who want to harm Poland in their narrative. Russia and Germany. So when Germany is heing cautious about Ukraine entering, they claim "Germany is blocking/not doing enough to help Ukraine win". Now that their agricultural sector is experiencing the effects of cheaper Ukranian grain, they change their tune. My point being: PiS only focuses on topics du jour. They are changing tune. 1/x
@kevinrothrock@elpolacodesplegado None of this is a surprise. It just stresses that the EU of the future has to be different from the EU we knew in the past.
That implies both institutional #EUreform + changed expectations from old & members (#CAP reform, and many others)
@kevinrothrock@paladino I think their calculation is to remove Ukraine from the Russian influence sphere. Plus, the market will be huge for reconstruction and cheap legal labor.
@kevinrothrock@paladino Depends on the political context and the speed at which it happens. They can drag it out to nit antagonize other aspiring members. Plus, Ukraine has some structural deficits it needs to address in order to join.
@kevinrothrock@elpolacodesplegado@paladino ordinary people backed leaving the EU—was that a net gain or a loss for the UK as we look at it today? And mind that was a net contributor in financial terms.
The truth is voters will support whichever side does the better campaigning, and the reality is even if Russia is suppressed to the point at which Ukraine accession to the EU becomes possible, enough of the disinformation and interfering groups will still be active to ensure the bid falls apart.
@kevinrothrock@paladino@elpolacodesplegado pretty sure the Baltics, Nordics and Eastern Europe (minus HU) would. It’s Western Europe and Germany especially that would be the problem.
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