@anneapplebaum He also knows that as soon as the war ends, NATO will be reinforced with the membership of Ukraine. So he will drag it out as long as he can.
NATO should offer Ukraine a date for membership, EVEN if the war is still ongoing. Yes, Putin would rather go down in a firestorm v. NATO than with a whimper & withdrawal, so he will likely do what he can to set it off anyway & give NATO no choice.