Russia lacks 'numbers for strategic breakthrough' in Ukraine: NATO

Moscow says it will keep pushing its offensive in Ukraine, though NATO doubts Russia has the resources to make a significant breakthrough.

NATO’s top military officer has said Russia’s armed forces are incapable of any major advance.

“The Russians don’t have the numbers necessary to do a strategic breakthrough,” NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe Christopher Cavoli told reporters on Thursday.

“More to the point, they don’t have the skill and the capability to do it; to operate at the scale necessary to exploit any breakthrough to strategic advantage,” the general said.

mlg,
@mlg@lemmy.world avatar

Okay not that I’m insinuating that this is the same circumstance, but the last time a certain nation said this, it eventually backfired.

Putin’s plan to capture Ukraine failed miserably, but Russia still has a significant fighting force and time to keep drawing this war out as long as they want.

Ukraine’s former general emphasized their own losses and said it was critical that Ukraine train more troops and acquire supplies quickly.

They can’t afford to stock on latest greatest weapons which is why they’ve been overly reliant on donations of old and surplus tech, especially vehicles.

NATO, ie mostly the USA, has failed to supply Ukraine with any significant stock of modern muntions that would give them an edge against Russia. It’s been two years and they still don’t have base block F-16s which would absolutely have helped during the early stages of the war.

Russia can keep the war machine going, slowly rearm, and try again, which could prove detrimental for Ukraine. They need to be decisively defeated in order for Ukraine to succeed.

For Ukraine’s sake, I really hope someone diposes Putin in a coup, considering how much of a wreck he made.

CopernicusQwark,

Both can be true: Russia can lack numbers to make a strategic breakthrough, and Ukraine can simultaneously not be able to field enough materiel to be able to recapture their losses.

IMO the most likely outcome is a stalemate that turns into de jure conquest of the territory Russia has captured and it turns into a cold (or at least cooler) war.

maynarkh,

You mean de facto conquest, right? And why would either side stop shooting?

Dkarma,

Cuz Putin dies. That’s the only way this ends i guess

alcoholicorn,

For Ukraine’s sake, I really hope someone diposes Putin in a coup

Yeah you don’t want that, the second biggest party is the communists, but from what I hear they’re not really communists, just boomers nostalgic for the USSR.

The nationalists waiting in the wings to seize power are even more psychotic than Putin.

The liberals are a distant 4th want to bring back the 90s, which created the conditions that got us here.

The communists would maintain the war for the same reasons the Putin does

The nationalists would make it 10x worse

The libs might end the war, but would definitely immiserate all of Russia again so the nationalists have an easier time recruiting.

Zedstrian,

They could still hold onto the land and Ukrainian population they’ve taken so far. Anything less than Ukraine regaining Crimea and the rest of its territory will not only be a loss for them, but would tell the Russian government that the West would rather appease them than let allow a conflict to escalate further. Appeasement didn’t work on Hitler, and it won’t work on Putin either.

Corkyskog,

Considering after two years of a Military Operation that was supposed to last weeks, they are now putting someone in to put them into a “wartime economy footing” I expect them to eventually either lose or have all of Ukraine. There really doesn’t seem to be middle ground for Putin.

ErilElidor,

Even if they would get all of Ukraine, I would expect quite a bit of underground resistance that would make holding on to Ukraine expensive.

djsoren19,

Then why the fuck did they send so many troops to Libya?!

I guess I shouldn’t complain too hard, you never want to correct an enemy when they’re making a mistake.

BakerBagel,

Because they have strategic interests across the globe. From the Russian perspective, taking control of Ukraine would be great, but preventing them from intefrating into the EU and NATO is the real focus. Ukraine can’t take back the occupied lands, and Russia will be able to l outlast Ukraine in an attritional war.

Varyk,

Great, let the Russians break their backs over this.

I’d like to see their military capabilities in traction for a while.

Amoxtli, (edited )

What a minute, didn’t NATO say that Russia is trying to conquer all of Europe, and attack NATO countries, yet it doesn’t have the numbers for a significant breakthrough in Ukraine. Something’s fishy going on with this statement… The psychological operations continue.

Lyre,

I dont think its unreasonable to assume that the Russian military command genuinely believed the they were a lot stronger than they actually were when this started. Just based on what news I’ve been following, it seems like its very common for Russian officers to lie to their superiors about how strong their units are for the sake of looking good.

MrNesser,

Russian officer: See that tank we have 15 more in storage.

Russian general: can I see them?

RO: ah well you see there are logistical concerns and we have to make an appointment with the guy…

Amoxtli, (edited )

I dont think its unreasonable to assume that the Russian military command genuinely believed the they were a lot stronger than they actually were when this started. Just based on what news I’ve been following, it seems like its very common for Russian officers to lie to their superiors about how strong their units are for the sake of looking good.

Russia isn’t part of NATO. Why is NATO contradicting itself with a narrative that Putin is out to conquer Europe, bring back the USSR, and claim here, it is too weak to do so on this front?

mean_bean279,

Last time I checked, Ukraine was in fact part of Europe. It’s a bit strange, I know. So with that, maybe attacking Ukraine (again, part of Europe) is attacking Europe. Oh, and that answer should answer your whole “and is trying to bring back the USSR” piece of your question. If you’re gonna simp for Putin at least just own up to an unproved attack and a land grab, no need to dance around like it makes you morally superior.

Amoxtli, (edited )

Paying attention to the quote I have of your statement

I dont think its unreasonable to assume that the Russian military command genuinely believed the they were a lot stronger than they actually were when this started. Just based on what news I’ve been following, it seems like its very common for Russian officers to lie to their superiors about how strong their units are for the sake of looking good.

mean_bean279,

Bad news, I’m not the person you’re quoting. I’m assuming your native tongue is Russian. Because you’re either very pro-Russia, or your tongue is at least in Putin’s asshole.

nahuse,

Intelligence about state capabilities come, first and foremost, from the state itself.

What are you confused about here? That foreign intelligence services believed Russian assessments of its own capabilities?

Yes, the Russian grossly overestimated their capabilities. Yes, many foreign analysts agreed that the Russian military was powerful.

This is ended up being less the case. But that doesn’t mean the Russian military isn’t dangerous or is completely incompetent and incapable of change.

What’s your point?

fuckingkangaroos,

Probably better not to waste your time “debating” them, their goal is only to spread misinformation, and they won’t argue in good faith.

Better to just tag them as “shill,” downvote, and move on.

NOT_RICK,
@NOT_RICK@lemmy.world avatar

I like to provide links that prove when people are spouting bullshit so anyone who is less informed that stumbles upon the argument can see how blatantly wrong they are. I notice this guy got awful quiet once I proved Russian state media says insane threatening shit on the regular.

fuckingkangaroos,

I’m sure that’s helpful. It’s interesting to think that while the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns do trick a lot of people, they also end up educating a lot of people.

nahuse,

I respectfully disagree.

I take part in conversations not for their benefit, necessarily, but observers’ benefit. And one of the most effective ways of fighting propaganda is to shine a light on it.

If you just delete every dissenting worldview without engaging, then it runs the risk of making the other positions more legitimate to others watching but not engaging, or gives fodder to the ideas that “we” in the more open parts of the world are just as bad as authoritarians at silencing dissent, which isn’t usually true.

I’d agree if the other poster was only spamming ad hom attacks all over, but there’s enough logic laced in there that I find it’s worth discussing and trying to understand, if only to better understand where Russian disinformation is.

fuckingkangaroos,

Fair enough, well said.

NOT_RICK,
@NOT_RICK@lemmy.world avatar

It’s possible to have aspirations beyond what your current capabilities are. Look at Benito Mussolini’s entire military history. Russian state media regularly makes claims that they will reconquer the Baltics and Poland. They even said they would nuke the North Sea to destroy Britain with a tidal wave. Are we supposed to just ignore what they say?

Amoxtli,

It’s possible to have aspirations beyond what your current capabilities are. Look at Benito Mussolini’s entire military history. Russian state media regularly makes claims that they will reconquer the Baltics and Poland. They even said they would nuke the North Sea to destroy Britain with a tidal wave. Are we supposed to just ignore what they say?

I am going to make a bet you can’t back up your statements. NATO is too stupid to figure out the military strength of Russia and takes their word for it, instead?

NOT_RICK,
@NOT_RICK@lemmy.world avatar

It’s not hard to find if you take your head out of the sand.

Here’s one

Here’s the nuclear tsunami threat

Julia Davis is a good follow. She highlights the crazy shit that gets said on Russian state media.

gsfraley, (edited )

Because Putin trying and failing still results in genocide and millions dead, ya goof. A pyrrhic victory for the people trying to defend their home and defend their neighbors and loved ones is a helluva lot worse than if Russia never fucked with them in the first place.

Aurenkin,

Ah yes, the narrative NATO has been skilfully spreading via… checks notes … Russian state TV…

mephiska,

What their actions and intentions have been, and what they are actually capable of, are two different things. There is nothing contradictory here.

assassin_aragorn,

Because Russia has been gradually conquering territory, not all at once. They create puppet states and take over land, then regroup and rebuild before attacking again. There’s a clear pattern of this with Georgia, Crimea, and now the whole of Ukraine. Each time prior, the international community wagged its finger and slapped sanctions. It’s generally accepted now that enough is enough, and it ends here.

It certainly doesn’t help either that Russia has been funding far right parties throughout the West who try to lift sanctions against Russia.

Num10ck,

geography. The current borders of Russia dont have enough natural barriers to secure from land invasion with their troop level. if they could expand to reach more natural barriers then they can defend the remaining barriers. this strategy hasnt changed in ages. its becoming more obvious that russia cant achieve this with what they currently have on their own. if say north korea and/or china and others pitch in, the math changes.

conditional_soup,

Not a Russia simp, I’ve been watching this war with some interest, and I’ve got a friend whose only hobby at this point is following this war.

If you look at how much Russian military ops have changed across almost every consideration over the course of the war, it’s really a stark difference between where they are today and where they were two years ago. It’s pretty clear Russia totally bunglefucked the opening maneuvers in the war. They’ve had to learn a lot of lessons and learn them hard, and they’re still learning them, but they are learning. I definitely think that Russia really did expect this was going to be a cakewalk, and that they were going to force Kiev into negotiations or else kill Zelenskyy in the first week. I can’t be 100% sure what the Russian military leadership was expecting, but I seriously doubt it was this.

Habahnow,

I feel it’s been common knowledge since after the first month of the war that Russia has miscalculated significantly. They sent in paratroopers, some of the most time consuming and most expensive soldiers to train, into Kyiv where they were summarily killed or captured with no support. Other units ran out of ammo and fuel, with soldiers indicating they weren’t expecting to invade.

Every day this war lasts is a spit in the face to Putin and his shitty planning.

conditional_soup,

My buddy is on the side of the Russians in all this (we’ve agreed to disagree) and even he admits that the Hostomel airport wasn’t anything else but a disaster. But it did give us one of the funniest moments in the whole war (so far), when a war journalist approached a Russian soldier to ask when he thought the Russians would be arriving.

ReallyActuallyFrankenstein, (edited )

Just curious, what the heck does your good friend say to justify the Russian invasion? (Edit: apparent stroke when I first wrote this)

conditional_soup,

So, he feels that the Nazi gangs in East Ukraine were engaging in ethnic cleansing against Russian speakers / Russian nationals that was more or less state sanctioned by the state showing they weren’t interested in doing anything about it. He fully believes Russia’s stated purpose in all this is to seize control of East Ukraine in order to stop the Nazis.

Imo, there’s clear enough evidence that there’s a Nazi problem in Ukraine. What isn’t clear to me is why that’s a reason for Russia to expand its territory (spoiler alert: it’s an excuse, obviously. Russia also has a Nazi problem, like a lot of other countries. The northern hemisphere is working through some shit ATM.)

PrettyFlyForAFatGuy,

They’re learning a lot at the top level but the bottom level are more untrained than they have ever been. most new soldiers are given a week of “training” a rusty old rifle with and handful of ammunition and are sent to the front.

Their professional army is gone.

Their tank stocks are severely depleted

They can’t fly their air force anywhere near the front for fear of it being shot down.

Their losses in the last couple weeks carving about 10 square km of kharkiv have been dizzying. Ukraine was reporting almost 1600 russians removed from the battlefield the other day and that was just for that day

catloaf,

Trying to and able to are two different things.

Amoxtli,

If you don’t have the capacity, then you can’t. How do you know they are “trying”? NATO said Russia is a threat to NATO and the US says Russia is a threat to national security. This statement seems to indicate that NATO is crossing their own lies. It is a contradiction, one of many coming out of NATO.

nahuse, (edited )

Russia is a threat to NATO member states, not NATO. NATO is aware of how easily it can stomp the Russian military, and so do all the NATO members.

What’s worrisome is how close some NATO members are to Russia, a country that has made its willingness to invade other countries based on made up justifications very well known, and actively sows disunity propaganda and actively influences politics on other countries, explicitly as acts of hybrid war (as in, based on state war fighting doctrine).

It’s also very clearly able to undertake large scale war, which its neighbors don’t necessarily have.

I don’t know exactly what you’re arguing here… that Russia actually isn’t a threat to NATO? Or are you seeking some kind of “gotcha” moment when people acknowledge that Russia is both dangerous, but not as fierce as analysts initially expected? Maybe you can clarify what you mean by “NATO lies,” for starters?

Carrolade,

It’s really not that complicated. Russia today lacks the forces. Russia in two years, after the economy is pushed further into wartime measures and further mobilization of troops, may not.

I don’t recall NATO officials ever saying Russia was going to attack the Baltics tomorrow.

assassin_aragorn,

This is exactly what’s happened over the last few decades too. They take Georgia, then they wait and resupply. They take Crimea and launch a war in Eastern Ukraine, then wait and resupply. They thought they could take the entirety of Ukraine and repeat the pattern, but they’ve overplayed their hand.

Hegar,
Hegar avatar

Russia has said multiple times that they are a threat to NATO. Pretending otherwise is as childish as pretending this isn't a proxy war between NATO and Russia.

If you're going to defend Russia, at least try not to contradict Russia.

MxM111,
MxM111 avatar

I do not see contradiction in those statements. Plus, if they can do 50 miles per year, sooner or later they will conquer Ukraine, then Baltic states, then Moldova and Poland and so on…

mephiska,

Poland is a NATO member, so no, they're not touching Poland. If they do it's WWIII.

MxM111,
MxM111 avatar

So are the Baltic states. So what?

Tja,

As long as there is no Manchurian president in the US, we have Article 5. If surplus hardware from the 80s and 100 Bradleys have done what they have done imagine what 1000 Bradleys hundreds of we’ll supplied and maintained Abrahams, Leos and Challengers can do when supported by the good ATACMS, Tomahawks and of course hundreds of F16s, F22s and F35s. There is no need for nuclear weapons, NATO can curb stomp Russia in traditional warfare. You need one breakthrough and then Prigozhin showed what defenses you can expect once you get past the front. Or Ukraine with their kamikaze Cessnas.

MxM111,
MxM111 avatar

So…. Why don’t we do the same with Ukraine? Nothing stops us. Article 5 does not mean that we have to send troops, by the way. Just consultation and help. Depending who wins election, that all help we (US) might give to Latvia, for example.

assassin_aragorn,

I don’t know, I think Poland is in a “I wish a bitch would” mood. They could have it handled before the rest of the world even has a chance to respond lmao

(More seriously though, yeah you’re right. I’m mostly joking around)

SkyezOpen,

Didn’t they just buy a shitload of HIMARS too?

Tja,

And for all their bravado “Poland is next” (see Medvedev for instance) they shit their pants and were soooo ready to cooperate when a missile fell on Polish soil and killed a farmer. Turned out to be a failed Ukrainian S300, but once Article 5 was even a remote possibility we all saw their real thoughts.

DarkThoughts,

Clown account.

fuckingkangaroos,

If they win in Ukraine it will bolster their military strength, war chest, and public support in Russia.

Then they’ll attack their next victims when they’ve had time to prepare.

Hegar,
Hegar avatar

Yikes, just looked at your profile. A supporter of both capitalism and authoritarianism?

I've never seen anyone so eager to tell the world that they are Neutral Evil.

Buelldozer, (edited )
@Buelldozer@lemmy.today avatar

Something’s fishy going on with this statement

It’s not difficult to understand. The SACEUR doesn’t speak for NATO as an organization and in fact the idea that Christopher Cavoli is “NATO’s top military officer” would come as quite a surprise to his boss Admiral Rob Bauer the Chair of the NATO Military Committee.

Admiral Bauer, unlike Cavoli, actually does speak for NATO.

What does Admiral Bauer have to say? His statements are the official ones, not the just opinion of an Officer.

AllYourSmurf,

If the Russians can’t succeed with numbers, will they escalate?

Tacos_y_margaritas,
Tacos_y_margaritas avatar

I worry that they will escalate with nuclear weapons. Putin seems hell bent on starting WW III.

Aurenkin,

Nuclear weapon usage does not result in WWIII, it’s an end the world button.

assassin_aragorn,

It depends on how retaliation goes. If the side that’s attacked uses conventional weaponry, we’re all fine.

So basically if Russia starts using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, NATO could respond with a conventional invasion of Russia and be done before noon. There’s scenarios where the rest of the world is fine if Russia uses nukes. But there’s no scenario where Russia is fine if they use nukes.

The only leverage Russia has to prevent all of NATO from joining in militarily is nukes. Using a nuke removes that leverage.

KevonLooney,

Exactly. Russia is not going to nuke anyone because they are not an ideological state like the USSR. They are a kleptocracy. Generals will not allow their grift to be interrupted, and it makes no money if you nuke something.

Aurenkin,

Sure but if Russia is willing to open the nuclear Pandora’s box because they can’t make progress in their war in Ukraine, what do you think they will do if they are about to lose a war to NATO in an afternoon? I don’t see use of nukes here ending a different way even in the case where NATO initially responds with conventional arms only. Who knows though, I’m pretty damn far from an expert here but hopefully we never have to find out.

BakerBagel,

Russia has repeatedly stated than NATO troops on Russian soil will result in nuclear strikes of NATO targets. Russia has seen two different apocalyptic invasions in the past 200 years, and they are committed to inflicting that onto any realized threats.

There is no scenario short of Russian invasion of a NATO country that will wee NATO forces enter Russia or Belarus. Any Western response will be conventional, but total, strikes if Russian military assets in the Black Sea and occupied Ukraine.

BakerBagel,

Nuclear weapons will lose all their remaining international support, as well as NATO launching full conventional strikes against every Russian military asset in the Black Sea and occupied Ukraine. Russia knows that use of tactical nuclear weapons will result in the total collapse of the Russian state, which is why theu are aonky going to use them if NATO troops coming knocking on the doors of St. Petersburg

nahuse,

… to what?

Are you suggesting we’re still waiting for the real Russian military to show up?

Or are you suggesting Russian deployment of tactical nuclear weapons?

Or is there another way that Russia could further escalate I can’t think of?

slaacaa,

I really hope this is true. The delay in US funding gave a huge advantage to Russia

Empricorn,

It was a straight-up Republican gift to Vladimir Putin. Fuck these cowards…

saltesc,

I find that Americans that usually say this kind of thing are staunch Sanders supporters. The same Sanders that continuously blocked the bill with quite a few other non-Republicans in that cohort.

We watch such bills abroad too because they’re international. There’s no sides and parties to it, just an example of how dumb American politics is as a whole. Don’t worry, I’m sure the Republicans are dumbest if that makes you feel better. But it is important to scratch a bit deeper below social media’s handpicked articles and comments, lest you end up becoming the same as those you oppose without realising it.

baru,

Republicans blocked it. There’s no “both sides” to this.

saltesc,

There’s slightly more to it than that in politics and voting, but sure. Let’s go with it being a single party’s decision over everything else if that suits the rhetoric everyone wants to hear. Life’s easy focusing on just one of many things anyway.

Dkarma,

Someone doesn’t understand symbolic votes. Lol

Bernie has always been on the right side, morally of pretty much every issue. Your implication otherwise here is simply laughable.

saltesc,

It wasn’t symbolic. He was (arg. rightfully) opposed to other parts in the propositions. This is laughable? What is the implication? You can read it directly on his site as well as those of other democrats and independents who ultimately contributed towards the bills not passing. These are the sources, so I doubt they’re implying anything.

If I’m personally implying anything, it is that many Americans seem to not do the above. When they make a statement, it’s based on a single component of a much larger picture, as though that single component is the entire picture. However, looking up information rather than being fed information socially would resolve this. Unfortunately, pekple tend to fall for argumentum ad populum quite easily. Additionally, pride rejects the claim that oneself has fallen to fallacy.

zenitsu,

Sanders opposed aid to Israel. Republicans are the sellouts sucking off Putin.

saltesc,

Yeah, I know. I literally just mentioned the source and the broad reasonings, of which one was that… So, obviously that detail isn’t the point.

Amoxtli,

Math isn’t your strong suit.

nahuse,

Have you ever considered good faith argumentation? Do you have the ability to present your views coherently and without vitriol?

DarkThoughts,

Check his profile and then decide to not bother, other than reporting him of course.

nahuse,

It’s a weird one. An actual corporate fascist? Neat.

They don’t like engaging with me, though.

fuckingkangaroos,

An actual corporate fascist Kremlin shill?

nahuse,

Meh. Same same.

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