@mastodonindians - In 9 out of the 10 PCs in MMR, the NDA’s vote share was more than 50% in 2019.
NDA's rise in Mumbai has largely come at the cost of smaller parties. This becomes clear when on looks at PC-wise *ENOP. (Refer to the last toot in the thread) (2/4)
@mastodonindians - Shiva Sena has been an important factor in NDA's rise in MMR. But BJP seem to have narrowed its gap with Sena since 2012.
If NDA gets even 40% of Sena-NCP votes, it is likely to win 7 seats. For MVA, even getting 70% of Sena-NCP votes is likely to only bring 3 MMR seats. (3/4)
@mastodonindians *Note: ENOP is the reciprocal of the sum of squares of vote share of candidates in a constituency, and a higher number suggests that more candidates are in the fray. The median PC-wise ENOP in MMR stood at 3.4, 2.6, and 2.2 in 2009, 2014 and 2019 respectively. (4/4)
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