cstross,
@cstross@wandering.shop avatar

Question for election psephologists: is Elpicke likely to win re-election in her own constituency as a Labour candidate?

(Genuine Q, I have no idea how popular/unpopular she is locally.)

emmatonkin,
@emmatonkin@mstdn.social avatar

@cstross
I think they agreed to this specifically with the proviso that she won't be standing for re-election as a Labour candidate, but also Dover is apparently one of the seats that will have boundary changes for the next election, so it's probably quite a complicated question.

rzeta0,
@rzeta0@mastodon.social avatar

@emmatonkin @cstross

So we're going to have labour politicians at the cliffs of Dover shouting at the sea, waving fists at the RNLI ?

emmatonkin,
@emmatonkin@mstdn.social avatar

@rzeta0 @cstross
In the sense that Elphicke is apparently briefly counted as a Labour politician, presumably yes? Which would be one of many reasons why I personally would have been fending her off with a ten foot pole, not posing for photographs

JdeBP,

@emmatonkin @rzeta0 @cstross

Phil Moorehouse's argument is that the LCP is thinking 2 moves ahead here. It's not about this defector. It's about leaving the door open for at least one much more valuable defector to come.

The committee that made the decision has stronger stomachs than some, certainly. But my question is how come Reform UK Ltd either wasn't approached, or turned her away? This has to be a kick in the teeth for them.

https://youtu.be/QSDSoE6CTDM

cstross,
@cstross@wandering.shop avatar

@JdeBP @emmatonkin @rzeta0 A good point: if they're thinking long term Starmer's strategic thinkers will be targeting Reform UK (as the logical bolt-hole for ideological enemies, assuming Labour plan to occupy the centre-right ground for a generation).

ben,
@ben@hardill.me.uk avatar

@cstross I thought she had announced she is not standing at the next election

cstross,
@cstross@wandering.shop avatar

@ben I have no idea; if that's the case, then that puts a different (and interesting) spin on her defection. (It's Starmer signalling to right wing voters rather than Labour actively embracing a far rigt MP as a long-term prospect.) Still shitty, though, while Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbot remain excluded.

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