...Niño phenomenon and a massive #eruption:
These are the #other factors driving global temperatures to the brink of a critical threshold."
I am asking myself:
Could humanity be on the advent of experiencing a real-life simulation of what it means for the globe if temperatures rise above the +1.5°C target?
@HistoPol@MichaelEMann Michael Mann is more about selling Books than the reality of Climate Chaos. Plus he completely ignored that Biden sold Climate down the River in the ridiculous Debt Ceiling Deal. All the Renewable Energy Tax Credits are gone, an estimated $200 Billion.
The first one is that we are entering an #ElNiño period. #Historically, 👉El Niño events have been the primary trigger for global #temperatures records👈 being broken. "
"It was 👉the most powerful volcanic eruption on earth since #Krakatoa in 1883. 👈"
"👉Typically, volcanic eruptions cool the surface of the earth👈 in the same way as extra #sulphur#emissions from #ships – it shades the surface of the earth. "
"👉Water is a #GreenhouseGas like carbon dioxide👉, so more of that in the #stratosphere warms the surface of the planet.
"...that 👉the water above the #volcano was literally launched into the #stratosphere, where it stays to this day. "
“We think that influence will 👉be there to the end of the decade👈 because that water #vapor - once it's up there because there’s no cloud and no rain – it will stay up there for a very long time,” he said."
There is a fourth issue, which IMO, is only local..."
"Professor #MichaelMann, from the Department of Earth and Environmental Science at the #UniversityOfPennsylvania, claims that 👉local weather factors [1], climate change and reduced #Saharan dust [sand] are all helping drive the sudden increase in ocean heat.👈
The change is most noticeable in the #NorthAtlantic Ocean, 👉but other bodies of water are seeing marine heatwaves of their own.👈
"...#OceanTemperature have been at record highs for the past three months, with no signs of dipping below previous highs anytime soon." (1)
Hopefully, it is the missing sand dust above the #Atlantic that causes this abnormal heating of the #ocean:
"The warming covers a wide swath of the #AtlanticOcean, 👉stretching almost one-third of the way across the #Atlantic westward👈 from the northwestern coast of ...
...Africa...
satellite data shows that some #SurfaceWaters in the area are almost 👉4 degrees Celsius (about 7 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal👈 for this time of the year,..."
But the abnormal warming will affect much larger areas than the #NorthAtlantic:
“A warm Atlantic tends to have a lot of global influences.” (2)
Rock you like a #hurricane: "Some global consequences
...surface temperatures 👉affect rainfall and storms in #Brazil, #India, the #Sahel region of #Africa, and the southwestern #UnitedStates. The higher temperatures also help to strengthen storms that form in the eastern Atlantic and eventually spawn #hurricanes, scientists say." (2)
👉The #Azores high has weakened and shifted southwest away from #Africa.👈
So those winds that typically pick up and transport #Saharan dust westward over the #NorthAtlantic are calmer and largely dust-free, says #MichaelMann,..." (2)
However, average ocean-surface temperatures of up to +5°C, as presently building up off the...
@HistoPol@MichaelEMann
There is overwhelming evidence that indicates that everyone should do everything within their power to decarbonize just as quickly as they possibly can.
@GreenFire@HistoPol@MichaelEMann Yes we should. We're too slow about it here in the USA and even in Europe, but the great greenhouse gas / particle emitters are China and India who keep adding MORE coal burning.
In my opinion, finger pointing (in general, but especially from the US) is the worst thing, you can do in the climate debate.
Unless you're a total racist and believe that white people are inherently entitled to a bigger share of the world's resources, per capita emissions is the only measure that counts.
The US still emits twice as much as China and 7 times (sic!) as much as India, not counting exported emission through trade.
@JohnShirley2023@Mina@HistoPol
Yes, I provided a chart of per capita carbon emissions and when you understand that the impacts of carbon pollution are cumulative you too will focus all your attention on the countries that have gotten rich by causing #GlobalWarming until they stop making the #ClimateCrisis worse too I hope.
India released its five-year energy plan May 31, 2023, which bars the country from building any new coal power plants and promotes renewable energy development btw.
I'd like to give my two cents on the "correct measurement" issue:
Yes, of course, people and not the abstract, "country" produce emissions.
However, it is chiefly former colonial or imperial or imperialist powers (incl. the US, #DollarImperialism) that have been using up humanity's carbon...
Read my toot again: You can't take absolute numbers per country. They are irrelevant, except for white supremacists.
The only valid metric is per capita. These were the numbers I presented.
As I also said: Every foreign product or product with foreign components you buy, adds to the respective country's (China, Japan, Germany etc.) emissions whilst it should be added to yours.
Chris - I'd like your opinion, as an energy expert. I am concerned that the policy of India and China is to increase coal burning, and by nation the measurement of greenhouse emissions puts China tops. India is thought to overtake the USA in emissions soon because they have new coal burning policies. Some charts show the USA higher in emissions--per capita charts--some show China higher. What do you think?
@chrisnelder@Mina@GreenFire@HistoPol@MichaelEMann I have said that China has the greatest emissions--that's according to my research; others are saying "but per capita" it's the USA. My great issue is China's policy of increasing coal burning. And though India said it's holding off on planning new coal burning plants, it is finishing the ones it's started and increasing coal mining.
@JohnShirley2023@Mina@GreenFire@HistoPol@MichaelEMann It's essential to understand the actual volumes. Not just whether mines are being opened, but how much mining is being done there. Not just how many coal plants are being built, but how often they're running. Not just "increasing," but by how much. Not just policies, but activities. These are all complex questions, but all you're seeing in the press are shallow, narrow narratives.
@JohnShirley2023@Mina@GreenFire@HistoPol@MichaelEMann Sure, you can Google for that in absolute or per-capita terms or whatever you like. All that data is easily accessible. But it won't tell you much about what the rankings will be in 10 years
@chrisnelder@JohnShirley2023@Mina@HistoPol@MichaelEMann
Because the carbon budget related to #GlobalWarming is a cumulative process, it's most appropriate to look at emissions since the steam engines started turning coal into CO2 to determine which countries to focus on first imo.
The what about China trope is a common #ClimateAction delayer response to my calls for Americans to #ElectrifyEverything renewably that I've run into for over a decade so I'm not having any of that.
I've also seen it used as a delaying tactic, which is cynical, but we must be careful not to let any nation off the hook "while they wait for worse culprits to get cracking".
I'm sure you'd agree we should not treat decarbonisation as some kind of sequential activity, starting with the worst polluters. All nations should do all they can, as soon as they can.
Literally — we do NOT know the scale of any HungaTonga water-vapor induced warming.
Atmospheric chemistry being complicated, we actually need models to figure this piece out. And attributing warming now to HT is mostly speculative. (But hopefully less so with HT-MIP now underway.)
@MichaelEMann@skynewsaust yeah. Like when they reduced sulphates to battle acid rain in checks notes the eighties, and the el nino's of checks notes again 2016-2019. And 2013, 2010, 2003-2005,... basically every 5-7 years.
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