@spaceflight I voted "they need a miracle" because, for sure, all three launchers won't be putting Amazon satellites in orbit by 2025. But at least one will be.
Really crossing my fingers that the first Ariane 6 launch performs as expected.
@spaceflight IMHO, it’s generous to refer to the “excess capacity” of rockets that, as you note, have yet to demonstrate they have any capacity to put stuff in orbit…
@spaceflight #Public benefit? 😂 Bezos could end #paywall on WaPo for less money, with immediate positive #impact. "'We can have thi$ amazing opportunity to $erve the un$erved and the under$erved, who have not had choice$ and option$. But at the same time, we believe that the opportunity is large enough for it to become a good busine$$ for #Amazon. It’s one of those rare opportunitie$ which has a broader #SocialImpact at the same time and makes sense for us to invest in as a company.'”
@spaceflight
And charge users for the upgrades? If only Amazon/Bezos/et al. could be trusted to consider public benefits/impacts in every business decision. Amazon would still be a behemoth and Bezos would continue as an uber billionaire. But that's not the libertarian ("regulation and taxes for thee, not for me") billionaire tech bro way.
@RichStein that's also mentioned in the Guardian article : “I don’t think we should buy into the idea that we’re somehow an alternative to government, because governments have an obligation and they are not living up to it to the extent they should."
@spaceflight
Yes. Impossible to ignore billionaires "doing good," because they control so much wealth, and their presence in philanthropy skews actions (and results). Also difficult to steer or even nudge (see the economic term) them. And governments can use their presence as cover for not doing their part. Complicated for sure. @p2173 for good insight/research on #philanthropy.)
Billionaires could play by rules, pay taxes and still succeed by many metrics. Sadly, they prefer not to.
@spaceflight There is no way Amazon can match that cadence with the launchers it has contracted (that we know of). Even if SpaceX wanted to help, I don’t know if they have sufficient capacity themselves.
@spaceflight
I think more than one internet satellite system is bullshit and dangerous for spaceflight and all of us.
And the only one that should be in space, should be provided by an institution like UN or an UNlike more efficient organisation.
What's happening here is a comparison of billionaires dicks.
@Tomcat#China is also planning a mega constellation. There is such an UN institution as you mentioned : https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/index.html
I personally believe that there is no efficiency without competition (regarding the evolution of technology). The #SpaceDebris issue should certainly be taken serious, the problem is missing international consensus between the major powers.
@spaceflight BO probably way late 2024, probably 2025 is a decent bet. Vulcan Q1 2024 bit there's a waiting list. Arianne 6 Q2/Q3 2024 hopefully. IRSO doesn't have a cadence to pick up the slack.
Just my guesses based on regular delays anyhow
@olavf "#BE4 is currently undergoing full-scale engine #development testing at our facilities in Van Horn, Texas. Full rate #production will occur in our new engine manufacturing facility in Huntsville, Alabama." https://www.blueorigin.com/engines/be-4 - But when ⏳? 2 of the 3 are dependent on those (regarding the cadence)
@spaceflight engine cadence is a lot of the things. I figure they have to ramp up to at least 9 engines a month before New Glenn can get serious. (2 for ULA, 7 for BO).
@spaceflight
I think Vulcan will be flying by then the first stage has passed the tests and the anomaly in Centaur IV has been identified these are the same people who made Atlas V and Delta IV.
Ariane 6 will fly by then too Ariane 5 had a rough start but became one of the most reliable rockets ever.
I think small launchers will play a part they allow single failed sats to be replaced for low cost.
@redhotrocket that's the relevant phrase of this article : “Amazon has talked to every major launch provider and they will continue to explore all options for future launch services”. The rest consists of "declined to provide details", "did not disclose" a.s.o.
@spaceflight I think #NewGlenn is going to be operational earlier than you might expect. We’re just used to #SpaceX being so much more open about their development that it seems like nothing is happening with Blue. I could be wrong though
@spaceflight@bcoffy Blue Origin is doing a lot of cool stuff besides rockets. But I agree that the company was mismanaged the last decade (or two).
About the "why aren't there any news at all about "the real thing"".
Blue is a company that prefers to keep everything a secret, until it is done. But if you know where to look, there is plenty of "news".
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